TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Michal Snizek vs Jakub Mejzlik 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 6
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
311611118811––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:28 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Mejzlik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Snizek above · Jakub Mejzlik below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 69 set 4, 8-11 · our read held Jakub Mejzlik at 54.0%
69 points played in total.
H2H Michal Snizek 6–1 Jakub Mejzlik Jakub Mejzlik has won 1 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:2854.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Mejzlik
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-1 in 7
Snizek
Wrong
gap of 5 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Snizek 1429 vs Mejzlik 1464
Mejzlik
Correct
both rated, 35 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Snizek 100% vs Mejzlik 60%
Snizek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Snizek 80% vs Mejzlik 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Snizek +6 · Mejzlik -1
Snizek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Mejzlik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Snizek form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSnizek 1.833 / Mejzlik 1.833
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Mejzlik)-0.6pp
Setka Cup · #13266034
Snizek1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 12 days ago (Sep 27) · back after a break
Won last 6
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
Mejzlik1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeSnizek6wins
AwayMejzlik1wins
6 of 7 to a deciderSnizek leads 6–1, and 6 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSnizek75%3 of 4
AwayMejzlik0%0 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Snizek4Mejzlik3n = 7Snizek took 4 of 7
S2Snizek4Mejzlik3n = 7Snizek took 4 of 7
S3Snizek4Mejzlik3n = 7Snizek took 4 of 7
S4Snizek3Mejzlik3n = 6split evenly
S5Snizek5Mejzlik1n = 6Snizek took 5 of 6
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home571%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricSnizekMejzlikS − MBasisWins61+5in 7 meetingsFirst set43+1of 7Avg pointsper match46.343.3+3.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSnizekMejzlikBasisWin rate · lifetime184 / 342 vs 144 / 28853.8%50%184 / 342 vs 144 / 288Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.939.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MejzlikSnizek 1.83/Mejzlik 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Mejzlik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Mejzlik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LJul 5 · 11:15M. Snizek48117911102J. Mejzlik49711118123
WJul 4 · 16:58M. Snizek45613132113J. Mejzlik531111111192
WJul 4 · 14:00M. Snizek43114611113J. Mejzlik4171111392
WJun 19 · 09:08M. Snizek521191011113J. Mejzlik4691112682
WJun 19 · 08:00M. Snizek46511118113J. Mejzlik4411881162
WMar 4 · 10:30M. Snizek531211118113J. Mejzlik4114471152
WJan 22 · 12:15M. Snizek371113133J. Mejzlik29711110
M. Snizek10
LOct 9 · 06:30M. Snizek2.2011890F. Husek1.611311113WSep 27 · 12:29P. Fiser2.0010990M. Snizek1.731211113WSep 27 · 11:30M. Snizek1.671511113P. Fiser2.1013780WSep 27 · 10:30M. Snizek1.731111113M. Holub2.007990WSep 27 · 09:30M. Snizek1.671181111113J. Jnr2.1051141382WSep 24 · 09:04J. Puk1.28119111272M. Snizek3.501311810113WSep 24 · 07:30M. Snizek2.10111168133V. Kral1.67951111112LSep 24 · 06:30M. Snizek3.50911861J. Puk1.2811711113WSep 24 · 05:30M. Snizek1.5011511113P. Moulis2.50211161WSep 13 · 15:30M. Snizek1.9111117103M. Holub1.80781171
J. Mejzlik10
LOct 8 · 17:05K. Polak1.6771111113J. Mejzlik2.10118241WOct 8 · 15:30E. Ondracek2.109118121J. Mejzlik1.6711911143LOct 8 · 15:00J. Mejzlik1.61911651K. Polak2.2011511113WOct 8 · 14:00J. Mejzlik1.8311117123L. Tuma1.838611101WSep 30 · 17:09O. Plyska2.008812141J. Mejzlik1.73111110163WSep 30 · 15:30K. Polak1.7365100J. Mejzlik2.001111123WSep 30 · 15:00J. Mejzlik1.9191111133M. Vorel1.801183111WSep 30 · 14:00J. Mejzlik1.801110117113O. Plyska1.9141281152WSep 28 · 16:58J. Mejzlik1.571110711113P. Fiser2.2521211652WSep 28 · 16:00P. Fiser1.735990J. Mejzlik2.001111113
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