TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Matej Volf vs Karel Kapras 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1171191210––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:53 and never touched: 55.4% is still 55.4%
Graded at full timeKarel Kapras to win
55.4%
55.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMatej Volf above · Karel Kapras below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 60 set 3, 12-10 · our read held Karel Kapras at 55.4%
60 points played in total.
H2H Matej Volf 3–2 Karel Kapras Karel Kapras has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:5355.4%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 4.6pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kapras
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Volf 1590 vs Kapras 1565
Volf
Correct
both rated, 25 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Volf 20% vs Kapras 80%
Kapras
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Volf 40% vs Kapras 60%
Kapras
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Volf -4 · Kapras +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Slight lean (leans Kapras) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kapras form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVolf 2.10 / Kapras 1.666
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Kapras)-4.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13258655
Volf2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Oct 07)
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 30 of 73
Down 0–1, comes back24% 10 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 24
Kapras1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 7 days ago (Oct 01) · back after a break
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite47% won 30 of 64
Up 2–0, closes it81% 13 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it71% 20 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeVolf3wins
AwayKapras2wins
3 of 5 to a deciderVolf leads 3–2, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVolfn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKapras33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Volf2Kapras3n = 5Kapras took 3 of 5
S2Volf2Kapras3n = 5Kapras took 3 of 5
S3Volf3Kapras2n = 5Volf took 3 of 5
S4Volf2Kapras1n = 3Volf took 2 of 3
S5Volf2Kapras1n = 3Volf took 2 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricVolfKaprasV − KBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match37.238.8−1.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVolfKaprasBasisWin rate · lifetime205 / 394 vs 161 / 32252%50%205 / 394 vs 161 / 322Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KaprasVolf 2.10/Kapras 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.4%
Kapras · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Volf won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 10 · 19:00M. Volf45371311113K. Kapras42111111272
WOct 29 · 22:30M. Volf46571112113K. Kapras46111191052
LOct 29 · 20:30M. Volf4111117932K. Kapras49881111113
WApr 15 · 21:30M. Volf341211113K. Kapras2310580
LApr 15 · 20:00M. Volf2051050K. Kapras341112113
M. Volf10
LOct 7 · 13:15V. Vejvoda1.671111113M. Volf2.109870LOct 7 · 12:30M. Klement1.40941111113M. Volf2.7511118872LOct 7 · 11:30M. Volf2.001051251M. Regner1.73121110113LOct 7 · 10:30V. Vejvoda1.441111113M. Volf2.639560WOct 3 · 02:59M. Volf1.67721111113R. Krejci2.1011116772LOct 3 · 02:00P. Pycha1.5081111113M. Volf2.50113751LOct 3 · 00:30M. Volf3.4058111152S. Kadavy1.30111178113WOct 2 · 23:00M. Volf1.911311710113M. Vizek1.80112111282WOct 2 · 22:00R. Krejci2.10141011982M. Volf1.671212811113WOct 1 · 13:28D. Tuma1.801011871M. Volf1.9112811113
K. Kapras10
WOct 1 · 21:29J. Stolfa2.00911991K. Kapras1.7311911113WOct 1 · 20:30K. Brozhik1.731111861K. Kapras2.0013811113WOct 1 · 19:30K. Kapras1.67911119113J. Stolfa2.1011771142LOct 1 · 18:30M. Sobisek1.83611119113K. Kapras1.8311651172WOct 1 · 17:00M. Vizek1.8369111172K. Kapras1.83111176113LOct 1 · 16:00K. Kapras1.61611471M. Vizek2.2011411113LOct 1 · 15:30D. Tuma2.101111113K. Kapras1.676880WOct 1 · 14:00K. Kapras2.0011711113M. Sobisek1.73711581WSep 29 · 21:00M. Bittner2.00118661K. Kapras1.7331111113LSep 29 · 20:30D. Tuma1.8311118113K. Kapras1.83681171
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