Matej Volf vs Michal Regner 1-3

TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro

Czech Liga Pro

Played Oct 7Finished

Matej Volf

Home

2.00

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Lost last 1

Final

1 – 3

Set by set

10125111210511––

Michal Regner

Away

1.73

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

9–1Last 10Lost last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:16 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%

Graded at full time

Michal Regner to win

54.0%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.

How it is goingMatej Volf above · Michal Regner below

Set 1 · 10-12

Set 2 · 5-11

Set 3 · 12-10

Set 4 · 5-11

Point 76 set 4, 5-11 · our read held Michal Regner at 54.0%

76 points played in total.

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 11:16

54.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727

short by 3.9pp

57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)

What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.73 (54%)

Regner

Correct

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

No meetings

—

No value

they have never met

Rating (G2)

Volf 1624 vs Regner 1654

Regner

Correct

both rated, 30 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Volf 40% vs Regner 80%

Regner

Correct

40pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Volf 60% vs Regner 90%

Regner

Correct

30pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Volf -1 · Regner -1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Regner) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Regner form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsVolf 2.00 / Regner 1.727

Signal prob.46% / 54%

Edge (Regner)-3.9pp (anti-value)

Czech Liga Pro · #13254455

Volf2.00

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As underdog44% won 30 of 69

Down 0–1, comes back26% 10 of 38

Down 0–2, comes back10% 2 of 21

Regner1.73

90%won 9 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As favourite49% won 87 of 178

Up 2–0, closes it92% 46 of 50

Up 1–0, closes it65% 65 of 100

Head to head

H2H window

First meeting

These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands: it is the only comparison available.

Career, not this matchup

MetricVolfRegnerBasisWin rate · lifetime205 / 391 vs 526 / 107852.4%48.8%205 / 391 vs 526 / 1078Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.1per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Regner

Volf 2.00/Regner 1.73

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

54%

Regner · sealed before the serve

What happened

1–3

Regner won

Total sets · Score

These two have never met.

The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together: one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.

Recent Results

M. Volf10