TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Blazej Warpas vs Bartosz Sulkowski 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1167111012711––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:49 and never touched: 72.1% is still 72.1%
Graded at full timeBartosz Sulkowski to win
72.1%
72.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
75 points played in total.
Set by set
1167111012711––
H2H Blazej Warpas 7–8 Bartosz Sulkowski Blazej Warpas has won 7 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:4972.1%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
clears by 0.7pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (65%)
Sulkowski
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-8 in 15
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Warpas 1335 vs Sulkowski 1517
Sulkowski
Correct
both rated, 182 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Warpas 80% vs Sulkowski 60%
Warpas
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Warpas 50% vs Sulkowski 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Warpas -1 · Sulkowski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% · Strong (leans Sulkowski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sulkowski form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWarpas 2.65 / Sulkowski 1.40
Signal prob.28% / 72%
Edge (Sulkowski)+0.7pp
TT Elite Series · #13254114
Warpas2.65
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 92 of 228
Down 0–1, comes back14% 18 of 133
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 78
Sulkowski1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 182 of 311
Up 2–0, closes it96% 80 of 83
Up 1–0, closes it81% 130 of 160
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeWarpas4wins
AwaySulkowski6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderSulkowski leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWarpas80%4 of 5
AwaySulkowski100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Warpas5Sulkowski5n = 10split evenly
S2Warpas1Sulkowski9n = 10Sulkowski took 9 of 10
S3Warpas5Sulkowski5n = 10split evenly
S4Warpas3Sulkowski4n = 7Sulkowski took 4 of 7
S5Warpas3Sulkowski2n = 5Warpas took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricWarpasSulkowskiW − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.442.1−4.7per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWarpasSulkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime438 / 851 vs 611 / 136651.5%44.7%438 / 851 vs 611 / 1366Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SulkowskiWarpas 2.65/Sulkowski 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.1%
Sulkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Sulkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 21 · 06:55B. Warpas44114117113B. Sulkowski4441191192
LAug 13 · 04:10B. Warpas2137110B. Sulkowski351111133
WAug 12 · 08:35B. Warpas3911611113B. Sulkowski35811791
LAug 10 · 03:00B. Warpas551111119132B. Sulkowski56138911153
LAug 8 · 19:20B. Warpas205690B. Sulkowski331111113
WAug 7 · 14:40B. Warpas50156117113B. Sulkowski53131191192
LAug 7 · 03:50B. Warpas26113661B. Sulkowski4181111113
LAug 5 · 14:40B. Warpas246990B. Sulkowski331111113
WJul 24 · 06:05B. Warpas48119611113B. Sulkowski4591111682
LJul 24 · 03:50B. Warpas47961111102B. Sulkowski46111175123
B. Warpas10
LOct 6 · 08:35A. Sobel1.331111113B. Warpas3.108890WOct 6 · 07:20B. Warpas2.251311123J. Lamperski1.55117100WOct 6 · 06:05M. Lukaszewski2.5511990B. Warpas1.451311113WOct 6 · 04:55M. Kukawka1.9561160B. Warpas1.751113113WOct 6 · 03:25D. Wrobel1.8591090B. Warpas1.851112113LOct 5 · 08:10B. Warpas1.6098110M. Lukaszewski2.151111133LOct 5 · 06:30B. Wisniewski2.0911811113B. Warpas1.67811891LOct 5 · 05:40M. Zwolinski1.9013101112113B. Warpas1.75111281452LOct 5 · 04:55B. Warpas4.006680M. Kolek1.221111113WOct 5 · 03:50B. Warpas3.231111113A. Sobel1.305680
B. Sulkowski10
LOct 7 · 04:30B. Sulkowski1.706119101M. Lukaszewski2.0011411123LOct 6 · 13:55A. Sobel1.421281210113B. Sulkowski2.551011101262WOct 6 · 13:05R. Stapor2.2591040B. Sulkowski1.541112113WOct 6 · 12:15B. Sulkowski2.3011611113M. Kolek1.52811881LOct 6 · 10:35B. Sulkowski2.424980B. Czerwinski1.501111113WOct 6 · 09:50D. Solilo1.9011611392B. Sulkowski1.76911511113WOct 5 · 14:40A. Sobel1.60119581B. Sulkowski2.1561111113LOct 5 · 13:30B. Sulkowski1.6012871192D. Solilo2.201011119113WOct 5 · 12:15J. Zochniak1.469880B. Sulkowski2.501111113LOct 5 · 11:00M. Kolek1.46117119113B. Sulkowski2.5071161192
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