TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Piotr Brozek vs Rafal Gajda 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
71111913111412––
Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 10
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:34 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRafal Gajda to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPiotr Brozek above · Rafal Gajda below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 14-12
Point 88 set 4, 14-12 · our read held Rafal Gajda at 54.0%
88 points played in total.
H2H Piotr Brozek 0–3 Rafal Gajda Piotr Brozek has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Gajda beat Brozek 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:3454.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 6.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Gajda
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-3 in 3
Gajda
Wrong
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Brozek 1426 vs Gajda 1373
Brozek
Correct
both rated, 53 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Brozek 60% vs Gajda 100%
Gajda
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Brozek 40% vs Gajda 100%
Gajda
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Brozek +3 · Gajda +10
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Gajda) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gajda form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBrozek 2.10 / Gajda 1.666
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Gajda)-6.0pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13252590
Brozek2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog52% won 26 of 50
Down 0–1, comes back33% 10 of 30
Down 0–2, comes back19% 3 of 16
Gajda1.67
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 10
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 152 of 261
Up 2–0, closes it92% 75 of 82
Up 1–0, closes it74% 110 of 148
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeBrozek0wins
AwayGajda3wins
Gajda leads 3–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBrozekn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayGajda100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Brozek0Gajda3n = 3Gajda took 3 of 3
S2Brozek0Gajda3n = 3Gajda took 3 of 3
S3Brozek2Gajda1n = 3Brozek took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away267%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricBrozekGajdaB − GBasisWins03−3in 3 meetingsFirst set03−3of 3Avg pointsper match29.038.7−9.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBrozekGajdaBasisWin rate · lifetime111 / 198 vs 450 / 86856.1%51.8%111 / 198 vs 450 / 868Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.539.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
GajdaBrozek 2.10/Gajda 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Gajda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Brozek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LOct 6 · 06:30P. Brozek2511590R. Gajda351311113
LMay 6 · 14:45P. Brozek31751181R. Gajda3911116113
LMay 6 · 11:05P. Brozek31571181R. Gajda4211119113
P. Brozek10
LOct 6 · 13:55P. Brozek1.407880P. Przewlocki2.751111113WOct 6 · 11:25P. Brozek1.501011511113W. Buczynski2.5012611652WOct 6 · 10:10W. Glanowski3.251191113112P. Brozek1.331311611133WOct 6 · 09:25P. Brozek1.401912113P. Slosarczyk2.75171080LOct 6 · 07:45P. Brozek1.57681171W. Glanowski2.2511117113LOct 6 · 06:30P. Brozek1.7311590R. Gajda2.001311113LOct 6 · 05:15P. Brozek1.50139711112W. Buczynski2.501111117133WOct 6 · 04:10P. Przewlocki2.754940P. Brozek1.401111113LOct 6 · 03:25P. Brozek1.30811881P. Slosarczyk3.4011511113LSep 30 · 14:20K. Kowalski5.5011115113P. Brozek1.13471141
R. Gajda10
WOct 6 · 11:50W. Glanowski1.801215110R. Gajda1.911417133WOct 6 · 11:00R. Gajda1.44611511113P. Slosarczyk2.6311711392WOct 6 · 09:50R. Gajda2.001311910123P. Przewlocki1.731191112102WOct 6 · 08:10R. Gajda2.7571111113W. Buczynski1.40118391WOct 6 · 06:30P. Brozek1.7311590R. Gajda2.001311113WOct 6 · 05:40P. Przewlocki1.73471191R. Gajda2.0011117113WOct 6 · 04:55R. Gajda1.361181011113P. Slosarczyk3.0081112072WOct 6 · 03:50R. Gajda1.73811811113W. Glanowski2.0011711632WSep 30 · 16:20K. Schaniel1.93461151R. Gajda1.7811118113WSep 30 · 15:30M. Rus2.50911914102R. Gajda1.451161112123
Upcoming Matches
P. Brozek
Nothing scheduled
R. Gajda
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