TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Rafal Gajda vs Witold Buczynski 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 6
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
711118113119––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:03 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRafal Gajda to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingRafal Gajda above · Witold Buczynski below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 71 set 4, 11-9 · our read held Rafal Gajda at 54.0%
71 points played in total.
H2H Rafal Gajda 10–12 Witold Buczynski Rafal Gajda has won 10 of their 22 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:0354.0%Our read36.4%to break even at 2.75
clears by 17.6pp36.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 2.75 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Buczynski
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
10-12 in 22
Buczynski
Wrong
gap of 2 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gajda 1331 vs Buczynski 1319
Gajda
Correct
both rated, 12 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gajda 100% vs Buczynski 80%
Gajda
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gajda 60% vs Buczynski 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Gajda +6 · Buczynski +2
Gajda
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Gajda) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gajda form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGajda 2.75 / Buczynski 1.40
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Gajda)+17.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13248947
Gajda2.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 6
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 120 of 275
Down 0–1, comes back28% 42 of 153
Down 0–2, comes back9% 7 of 79
Buczynski1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite46% won 44 of 95
Up 2–0, closes it89% 25 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it60% 33 of 55
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGajda3wins
AwayBuczynski7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderBuczynski leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGajda50%2 of 4
AwayBuczynski83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gajda4Buczynski6n = 10Buczynski took 6 of 10
S2Gajda4Buczynski6n = 10Buczynski took 6 of 10
S3Gajda4Buczynski6n = 10Buczynski took 6 of 10
S4Gajda1Buczynski7n = 8Buczynski took 7 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away660%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricGajdaBuczynskiG − BBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.238.2−3.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGajdaBuczynskiBasisWin rate · lifetime446 / 864 vs 464 / 116651.6%39.8%446 / 864 vs 464 / 1166Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match39.536.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
GajdaGajda 2.75/Buczynski 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Gajda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Gajda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 30 · 14:45R. Gajda31119471W. Buczynski4181111113
LSep 30 · 11:05R. Gajda4011117111W. Buczynski3813111133
LSep 2 · 14:45R. Gajda34611981W. Buczynski3611311113
LSep 2 · 11:05R. Gajda32118941W. Buczynski4181111113
LAug 4 · 11:50R. Gajda26361251W. Buczynski43111110113
LAug 4 · 03:50R. Gajda204970W. Buczynski331111113
WJul 23 · 12:15R. Gajda521181110123W. Buczynski47811612102
WJul 23 · 08:35R. Gajda351111133W. Buczynski2155110
WJun 10 · 12:45R. Gajda48961111113W. Buczynski4111117482
LJun 10 · 10:20R. Gajda341011761W. Buczynski4112711113
R. Gajda10
WOct 6 · 06:30P. Brozek1.7311590R. Gajda2.001311113WOct 6 · 05:40P. Przewlocki1.73471191R. Gajda2.0011117113WOct 6 · 04:55R. Gajda1.361181011113P. Slosarczyk3.0081112072WOct 6 · 03:50R. Gajda1.73811811113W. Glanowski2.0011711632WSep 30 · 16:20K. Schaniel1.93461151R. Gajda1.7811118113WSep 30 · 15:30M. Rus2.50911914102R. Gajda1.451161112123LSep 30 · 14:45R. Gajda1.80119471W. Buczynski1.9081111113LSep 30 · 13:10R. Gajda2.30812891M. Sikon1.55111011113LSep 30 · 12:20B. Madej2.451111123R. Gajda1.4788100LSep 30 · 11:05R. Gajda1.7711117111W. Buczynski1.9313111133
W. Buczynski10
LOct 6 · 09:00W. Glanowski2.00611711113W. Buczynski1.7311411682WOct 6 · 07:20P. Slosarczyk1.801111871W. Buczynski1.9161311113WOct 6 · 05:15P. Brozek1.50139711112W. Buczynski2.501111117133LOct 6 · 04:30W. Glanowski1.831111113W. Buczynski1.839480WOct 6 · 03:00P. Przewlocki1.733750W. Buczynski2.001111113WOct 4 · 14:20R. Idaczyk1.837540W. Buczynski1.831111113LOct 4 · 13:30J. Jesiek2.00116117113W. Buczynski1.7391151152WOct 4 · 11:25W. Wojtaszczyk1.30981141W. Buczynski3.4011118113WSep 30 · 14:45R. Gajda1.80119471W. Buczynski1.9081111113WSep 30 · 11:05R. Gajda1.7711117111W. Buczynski1.9313111133
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