TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Piotr Brozek vs Witold Buczynski 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1012116511116115
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:15 and never touched: 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timePiotr Brozek to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingPiotr Brozek above · Witold Buczynski below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 88 set 5, 11-5 · our read held Piotr Brozek at 65.7%
88 points played in total.
H2H Piotr Brozek 3–2 Witold Buczynski Witold Buczynski has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:1565.7%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 1.0pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Brozek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Brozek 1418 vs Buczynski 1309
Brozek
Correct
both rated, 108 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Brozek 40% vs Buczynski 60%
Buczynski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Brozek 40% vs Buczynski 60%
Buczynski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Brozek +2 · Buczynski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% · Clear lean (leans Brozek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Buczynski form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBrozek 1.50 / Buczynski 2.50
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Brozek)-1.0pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13249522
Brozek1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 63 of 103
Up 2–0, closes it100% 36 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it85% 49 of 58
Buczynski2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 196 of 508
Down 0–1, comes back22% 65 of 300
Down 0–2, comes back4% 6 of 163
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeBrozek3wins
AwayBuczynski2wins
2 of 5 to a deciderBrozek leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBrozek75%3 of 4
AwayBuczynskin = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Brozek4Buczynski1n = 5Brozek took 4 of 5
S2Brozek3Buczynski2n = 5Brozek took 3 of 5
S3Brozek2Buczynski3n = 5Buczynski took 3 of 5
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home240%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricBrozekBuczynskiBrozek − BuczynskiBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set41+3of 5Avg pointsper match39.236.6+2.6per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBrozekBuczynskiBasisWin rate · lifetime110 / 197 vs 465 / 116955.8%39.8%110 / 197 vs 465 / 1169Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.536.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BrozekBrozek 1.50/Buczynski 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.7%
Brozek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Brozek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LOct 6 · 05:15P. Brozek51139711112W. Buczynski531111117133
WMay 16 · 15:05P. Brozek561212912113W. Buczynski491010111442
WMay 16 · 09:05P. Brozek331111113W. Buczynski187470
LMay 6 · 17:05P. Brozek195950W. Buczynski331111113
WMay 6 · 08:45P. Brozek371313113W. Buczynski30111180
P. Brozek10
WOct 6 · 10:10W. Glanowski3.251191113112P. Brozek1.331311611133WOct 6 · 09:25P. Brozek1.401912113P. Slosarczyk2.75171080LOct 6 · 07:45P. Brozek1.57681171W. Glanowski2.2511117113LOct 6 · 06:30P. Brozek1.7311590R. Gajda2.001311113LOct 6 · 05:15P. Brozek1.50139711112W. Buczynski2.501111117133WOct 6 · 04:10P. Przewlocki2.754940P. Brozek1.401111113LOct 6 · 03:25P. Brozek1.30811881P. Slosarczyk3.4011511113LSep 30 · 14:20K. Kowalski5.5011115113P. Brozek1.13471141LSep 30 · 13:30O. Jadach1.83781111113P. Brozek1.8311116882WSep 30 · 11:25K. Adamus2.0081171182P. Brozek1.73119119113
W. Buczynski10
WOct 6 · 10:35P. Przewlocki1.675116141W. Buczynski2.1011711163LOct 6 · 09:00W. Glanowski2.00611711113W. Buczynski1.7311411682LOct 6 · 08:10R. Gajda2.7571111113W. Buczynski1.40118391WOct 6 · 07:20P. Slosarczyk1.801111871W. Buczynski1.9161311113WOct 6 · 05:15P. Brozek1.50139711112W. Buczynski2.501111117133LOct 6 · 04:30W. Glanowski1.831111113W. Buczynski1.839480WOct 6 · 03:00P. Przewlocki1.733750W. Buczynski2.001111113WOct 4 · 14:20R. Idaczyk1.837540W. Buczynski1.831111113LOct 4 · 13:30J. Jesiek2.00116117113W. Buczynski1.7391151152WOct 4 · 11:25W. Wojtaszczyk1.30981141W. Buczynski3.4011118113
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