TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Kacper Adamus vs Piotr Brozek 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811119711119811
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:23 and never touched: 56.1% is still 56.1%
Graded at full timePiotr Brozek to win
56.1%
56.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingKacper Adamus above · Piotr Brozek below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 96 set 5, 8-11 · our read held Piotr Brozek at 56.1%
96 points played in total.
H2H Kacper Adamus 3–2 Piotr Brozek Piotr Brozek has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:2356.1%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 1.8pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Brozek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adamus 1411 vs Brozek 1489
Brozek
Correct
both rated, 78 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adamus 60% vs Brozek 80%
Brozek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adamus 80% vs Brozek 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Adamus +2 · Brozek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Brozek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Brozek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdamus 2.00 / Brozek 1.727
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Brozek)-1.8pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13216140
Adamus2.00
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog47% won 83 of 176
Down 0–1, comes back22% 19 of 87
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 44
Brozek1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite62% won 58 of 94
Up 2–0, closes it100% 32 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it83% 44 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeAdamus3wins
AwayBrozek2wins
2 of 5 to a deciderAdamus leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdamus66.7%2 of 3
AwayBrozekn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adamus3Brozek2n = 5Adamus took 3 of 5
S2Adamus4Brozek1n = 5Adamus took 4 of 5
S3Adamus2Brozek3n = 5Brozek took 3 of 5
S4Adamus2Brozek3n = 5Brozek took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricAdamusBrozekA − BBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match45.043.0+2.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamusBrozekBasisWin rate · lifetime926 / 1697 vs 106 / 18754.6%56.7%926 / 1697 vs 106 / 187Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BrozekAdamus 2.00/Brozek 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.1%
Brozek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Brozek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 30 · 05:15K. Adamus35891171P. Brozek4011117113
WSep 2 · 09:25K. Adamus43111110113P. Brozek33491281
LSep 2 · 03:25K. Adamus4211116952P. Brozek47681111113
WMay 6 · 15:55K. Adamus47111114113P. Brozek40991661
WMay 6 · 09:55K. Adamus581412117143P. Brozek551610611122
K. Adamus10
WSep 30 · 12:40K. Adamus1.221411113K. Kowalski4.0012690WSep 30 · 10:10P. Przewlocki1.83919111172K. Adamus1.83112189113WSep 30 · 09:25K. Adamus2.10119118163O. Jadach1.67811511142LSep 30 · 07:45K. Adamus1.837880P. Przewlocki1.831111113WSep 30 · 06:30K. Adamus1.221110811113K. Kowalski4.0081211522LSep 30 · 05:15K. Adamus2.20891171P. Brozek1.6111117113WSep 30 · 04:10I. Szymanski6.001051141K. Adamus1.1112119113WSep 30 · 03:25K. Adamus1.8391111113O. Jadach1.83117991WSep 29 · 05:05M. Adamus2.119117101K. Adamus1.6611511123WSep 29 · 03:55K. Adamus1.4411916133O. Sokolowski2.6091114111
P. Brozek10
LSep 30 · 10:35I. Szymanski6.0011117113P. Brozek1.11581151WSep 30 · 09:00P. Przewlocki2.63791191P. Brozek1.4411114113WSep 30 · 08:10K. Kowalski3.405101112142P. Brozek1.301112610163WSep 30 · 07:20O. Jadach1.83101161172P. Brozek1.83126115113WSep 30 · 05:15K. Adamus2.20891171P. Brozek1.6111117113LSep 30 · 04:30P. Przewlocki2.631111113P. Brozek1.448980WSep 30 · 03:00I. Szymanski4.507780P. Brozek1.171111113WSep 22 · 14:40P. Brozek1.501211113W. Urban2.5010690WSep 22 · 13:05P. Brozek1.221111113M. Skuril4.007730LSep 22 · 11:50P. Brozek1.8012611792R. Niemiec1.911011711113
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