TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Kyrylo Tkachenko vs Dmytro Ponomarenko 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
114711711811––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:41 and never touched: 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeKyrylo Tkachenko to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKyrylo Tkachenko above · Dmytro Ponomarenko below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 70 set 4, 8-11 · our read held Kyrylo Tkachenko at 58.9%
70 points played in total.
H2H Kyrylo Tkachenko 1–0 Dmytro Ponomarenko Dmytro Ponomarenko has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:4158.9%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 4.8pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Tkachenko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Tkachenko 1429 vs Ponomarenko 1415
Tkachenko
Wrong
both rated, 14 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tkachenko 80% vs Ponomarenko 60%
Tkachenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tkachenko 60% vs Ponomarenko 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tkachenko +3 · Ponomarenko -1
Tkachenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Tkachenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ponomarenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTkachenko 1.571 / Ponomarenko 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Tkachenko)-4.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13251268
Tkachenko1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 7 days ago (Sep 29) · back after a break
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite76% won 67 of 88
Up 2–0, closes it100% 37 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it87% 54 of 62
Ponomarenko2.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 5 days ago (Oct 01)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog26% won 14 of 55
Down 0–1, comes back11% 4 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeTkachenko1wins
AwayPonomarenko0wins
Tkachenko leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricTkachenkoPonomarenkoT − PBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match33.017.0+16.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTkachenkoPonomarenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime107 / 188 vs 47 / 10556.9%44.8%107 / 188 vs 47 / 105Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.536.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
TkachenkoTkachenko 1.57/Ponomarenko 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Tkachenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Ponomarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 29 · 15:25K. Tkachenko331111113D. Ponomarenko175570
K. Tkachenko10
WSep 29 · 18:25K. Tkachenko1.571112115113V. Hel2.25510131192WSep 29 · 16:25D. Kozoriz1.833740K. Tkachenko1.831111113WSep 29 · 15:25K. Tkachenko1.801111113D. Ponomarenko1.915570LSep 29 · 14:25D. Kasian1.731312113K. Tkachenko2.00111090WSep 29 · 12:55K. Tkachenko1.571111113S. Kryvoshyi2.256790WSep 22 · 18:55K. Tkachenko1.80911811103D. Kozoriz1.9111611832LSep 22 · 16:55S. Kryvoshyi2.751111113K. Tkachenko1.408470LSep 22 · 14:55V. Hel2.50811115113K. Tkachenko1.5011691162LSep 22 · 13:55K. Tkachenko1.91118116102D. Kasian1.80911511123WSep 22 · 12:55O. Melnik6.506690K. Tkachenko1.101111113
D. Ponomarenko10
LOct 1 · 12:20D. Ponomarenko3.2511126722O. Ovsiienko1.337101111113WOct 1 · 10:20S. Skhabitskiy1.531141591D. Ponomarenko2.3881117113WOct 1 · 09:20D. Ponomarenko1.5071111113M. Stetsenko2.50117771WOct 1 · 08:20V. Melnykov2.00591161D. Ponomarenko1.7311117113LOct 1 · 06:50D. Ponomarenko1.808670O. Mytsyk1.911111113WSep 30 · 10:25D. Ponomarenko1.3311814113V. Hel3.258111271WSep 30 · 08:55D. Ponomarenko1.73119911113D. Kasian2.0061111942LSep 30 · 07:25D. Ponomarenko1.83811891V. Kheresko1.8311211113WSep 30 · 05:55D. Ponomarenko2.001114113D. Kozoriz1.7351230LSep 29 · 15:25K. Tkachenko1.801111113D. Ponomarenko1.915570
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