TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Roman Mazur vs Vsevolod Kheresko 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Roman Mazur
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
6111191012511––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:37 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVsevolod Kheresko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingRoman Mazur above · Vsevolod Kheresko below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 75 set 4, 5-11 · our read held Vsevolod Kheresko at 54.0%
75 points played in total.
H2H Roman Mazur 2–1 Vsevolod Kheresko Vsevolod Kheresko has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:3754.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Kheresko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mazur 1308 vs Kheresko 1403
Kheresko
Correct
both rated, 96 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mazur 40% vs Kheresko 80%
Kheresko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mazur 50% vs Kheresko 80%
Kheresko
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mazur +1 · Kheresko +3
Kheresko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Kheresko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kheresko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMazur 1.833 / Kheresko 1.833
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kheresko)-0.6pp
Setka Cup · #13251034
Mazur1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Kheresko1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeMazur2wins
AwayKheresko1wins
1 of 3 to a deciderMazur leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mazur2Kheresko1n = 3Mazur took 2 of 3
S2Mazur1Kheresko2n = 3Kheresko took 2 of 3
S3Mazur1Kheresko2n = 3Kheresko took 2 of 3
S4Mazur2Kheresko1n = 3Mazur took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricMazurKhereskoM − KBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match40.737.0+3.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMazurKhereskoBasisWin rate · lifetime108 / 227 vs 234 / 45147.6%51.9%108 / 227 vs 234 / 451Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.837.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KhereskoMazur 1.83/Kheresko 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kheresko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kheresko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WAug 26 · 09:30R. Mazur481110511113V. Kheresko3541211172
LAug 26 · 04:55R. Mazur32981141V. Kheresko4111118113
WAug 12 · 06:55R. Mazur4211128113V. Kheresko356101181
R. Mazur10
WOct 6 · 16:25R. Mazur1.8011118113K. Tkachenko1.91371181LOct 6 · 14:55R. Mazur1.6111117972D. Ponomarenko2.20581111113LOct 6 · 13:25R. Mazur2.755790I. Kvak1.401111113LOct 6 · 11:55R. Mazur2.101131091D. Kasian1.6781112113WAug 26 · 09:30R. Mazur1.401110511113V. Kheresko2.7541211172WAug 26 · 08:25R. Mazur2.10815712113D. Kozoriz1.671113111072WAug 26 · 07:25A. Didyk1.83811951R. Mazur1.8311911113WAug 26 · 06:25D. Ponomarenko1.578680R. Mazur2.251111113LAug 26 · 04:55V. Kheresko2.5011118113R. Mazur1.50981141LAug 12 · 10:55R. Mazur2.0068100D. Kozoriz1.731111123
V. Kheresko10
WOct 6 · 16:55V. Kheresko1.911111123D. Ponomarenko1.8097100WOct 6 · 15:55V. Kheresko1.8013116113D. Kasian1.911161171WOct 6 · 14:25V. Kheresko3.5061111113K. Tkachenko1.28115991LOct 6 · 12:25V. Kheresko2.00119871I. Kvak1.7331111113WSep 30 · 09:25V. Hel1.734121091V. Kheresko2.00111012113WSep 30 · 07:25D. Ponomarenko1.83811891V. Kheresko1.8311211113WSep 30 · 06:25V. Kheresko2.001211113S. Kryvoshyi1.7310390WSep 30 · 05:25D. Kasian2.003970V. Kheresko1.731111113LAug 26 · 09:30R. Mazur1.401110511113V. Kheresko2.7541211172WAug 26 · 04:55V. Kheresko2.5011118113R. Mazur1.50981141
Upcoming Matches
R. Mazur
Nothing scheduled
V. Kheresko
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.