TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Dmytro Derevynskyi vs Kostiantyn Hrynenko 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1161191012116––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:17 and never touched: 55.9% is still 55.9%
Graded at full timeDmytro Derevynskyi to win
55.9%
55.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingDmytro Derevynskyi above · Kostiantyn Hrynenko below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 76 set 4, 11-6 · our read held Dmytro Derevynskyi at 55.9%
76 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Derevynskyi 114–69 Kostiantyn Hrynenko Kostiantyn Hrynenko has won 69 of their 183 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:1755.9%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 6.0pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Derevynskyi
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
114-69 in 183
Derevynskyi
Correct
gap of 45 in 183, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Derevynskyi 1619 vs Hrynenko 1620
Hrynenko
Wrong
both rated, 0 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Derevynskyi 60% vs Hrynenko 40%
Derevynskyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Derevynskyi 60% vs Hrynenko 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Derevynskyi +1 · Hrynenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Derevynskyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDerevynskyi 1.615 / Hrynenko 2.20
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Derevynskyi)-6.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13250365
Derevynskyi1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 199 of 338
Up 2–0, closes it91% 96 of 105
Up 1–0, closes it73% 143 of 196
Hrynenko2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 139 of 319
Down 0–1, comes back27% 46 of 172
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 85
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDerevynskyi5wins
AwayHrynenko5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDerevynskyi80%4 of 5
AwayHrynenko80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Derevynskyi5Hrynenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Derevynskyi5Hrynenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Derevynskyi7Hrynenko3n = 10Derevynskyi took 7 of 10
S4Derevynskyi5Hrynenko4n = 9Derevynskyi took 5 of 9
S5Derevynskyi1Hrynenko3n = 4Hrynenko took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricDerevynskyiHrynenkoD − HBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.838.6+3.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDerevynskyiHrynenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime478 / 874 vs 424 / 89654.7%47.3%478 / 874 vs 424 / 896Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.836.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DerevynskyiDerevynskyi 1.61/Hrynenko 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.9%
Derevynskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Derevynskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 7 · 02:35D. Derevynskyi43111110113K. Hrynenko33691261
WOct 3 · 03:35D. Derevynskyi511181110113K. Hrynenko3731161252
LSep 26 · 01:05D. Derevynskyi4611881182K. Hrynenko49711119113
WSep 23 · 23:25D. Derevynskyi331111113K. Hrynenko226790
LSep 19 · 01:05D. Derevynskyi49109111182K. Hrynenko49121178113
WSep 18 · 00:55D. Derevynskyi4291111113K. Hrynenko34118871
WSep 11 · 23:35D. Derevynskyi4011711113K. Hrynenko34711791
LSep 7 · 23:55D. Derevynskyi31831191K. Hrynenko4211119113
LSep 5 · 01:05D. Derevynskyi29511761K. Hrynenko3711411113
LSep 2 · 04:05D. Derevynskyi54711111692K. Hrynenko49114518113
D. Derevynskyi10
WOct 7 · 04:05S. Pitsyk3.25511671D. Derevynskyi1.3311811113WOct 7 · 00:35Y. Stepanchuk3.7511116111D. Derevynskyi1.2571311133LOct 6 · 22:35O. Melashenko2.3881111113D. Derevynskyi1.53119661WOct 6 · 21:35D. Rehotun2.75127111692D. Derevynskyi1.401411914113WOct 3 · 03:35K. Hrynenko2.2531161252D. Derevynskyi1.571181110113LOct 3 · 02:35O. Gomilko1.50101112113D. Derevynskyi2.501231071WOct 3 · 01:05M. Marchuk2.50117111372D. Derevynskyi1.50511715113LOct 2 · 23:05V. Lobas1.441110118113D. Derevynskyi2.6341261172WOct 2 · 21:05Y. Krol2.6351111111D. Derevynskyi1.4411138133LOct 1 · 03:05D. Derevynskyi1.6711961172T. Ponomarenko2.10411119113
K. Hrynenko10
WOct 7 · 03:35Y. Stepanchuk4.50116811102K. Hrynenko1.17311112123WOct 7 · 01:05D. Rehotun2.251011371K. Hrynenko1.5712611113LOct 6 · 23:05S. Pitsyk3.2514911113K. Hrynenko1.331211851WOct 6 · 21:05O. Melashenko2.109960K. Hrynenko1.671111113LOct 4 · 04:05Y. Krol1.731111113K. Hrynenko2.007870LOct 4 · 02:35K. Hrynenko2.1088100O. Gomilko1.671111123LOct 4 · 00:35O. Melashenko2.0011118143K. Hrynenko1.737511121WOct 3 · 22:35V. Lobas1.53114951K. Hrynenko2.3861111113WOct 3 · 21:35V. Kobets4.0091070K. Hrynenko1.221112113LOct 3 · 03:35K. Hrynenko2.2531161252D. Derevynskyi1.571181110113
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