TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Dmytro Derevynskyi vs Tymur Ponomarenko 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
114911611119711
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:47 and never touched: 58.6% is still 58.6%
Graded at full timeDmytro Derevynskyi to win
58.6%
58.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Dmytro Derevynskyi @ 1.67 · Lost
How it is goingDmytro Derevynskyi above · Tymur Ponomarenko below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 90 set 5, 7-11 · our read held Dmytro Derevynskyi at 58.6%
90 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Derevynskyi 10–9 Tymur Ponomarenko Tymur Ponomarenko has won 9 of their 19 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 01:4758.6%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 1.4pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Derevynskyi
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
10-9 in 19
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Derevynskyi 1606 vs Ponomarenko 1494
Derevynskyi
Wrong
both rated, 112 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Derevynskyi 60% vs Ponomarenko 100%
Ponomarenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Derevynskyi 70% vs Ponomarenko 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Derevynskyi +2 · Ponomarenko +6
Ponomarenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Derevynskyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ponomarenko form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDerevynskyi 1.666 / Ponomarenko 2.10
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Derevynskyi)-1.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13219370
Derevynskyi1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 199 of 338
Up 2–0, closes it91% 94 of 103
Up 1–0, closes it73% 143 of 196
Ponomarenko2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 6
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog34% won 38 of 112
Down 0–1, comes back14% 9 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDerevynskyi7wins
AwayPonomarenko3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderDerevynskyi leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDerevynskyi85.7%6 of 7
AwayPonomarenko66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Derevynskyi7Ponomarenko3n = 10Derevynskyi took 7 of 10
S2Derevynskyi6Ponomarenko4n = 10Derevynskyi took 6 of 10
S3Derevynskyi7Ponomarenko3n = 10Derevynskyi took 7 of 10
S4Derevynskyi7Ponomarenko2n = 9Derevynskyi took 7 of 9
S5Derevynskyi0Ponomarenko3n = 3Ponomarenko took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home660%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricDerevynskyiPonomarenkoD − PBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match42.138.9+3.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDerevynskyiPonomarenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime481 / 881 vs 216 / 40254.6%53.7%481 / 881 vs 216 / 402Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.738.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DerevynskyiDerevynskyi 1.67/Ponomarenko 2.10
Miss
What we said
58.6%
Derevynskyi · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Dmytro Derevynskyi @ 1.67 · Lost
What happened
2–3
Ponomarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 10 · 23:25D. Derevynskyi351111133T. Ponomarenko2687110
WSep 8 · 13:25D. Derevynskyi43111110113T. Ponomarenko31591251
LSep 4 · 02:55D. Derevynskyi43108111132T. Ponomarenko46121148113
WAug 31 · 21:55D. Derevynskyi4211711133T. Ponomarenko366118111
WAug 31 · 02:55D. Derevynskyi4211119113T. Ponomarenko34961181
WAug 26 · 02:05D. Derevynskyi46101411113T. Ponomarenko391212871
WAug 17 · 21:25D. Derevynskyi4414613113T. Ponomarenko3812111141
LAug 14 · 01:25D. Derevynskyi4161111852T. Ponomarenko49117911113
LAug 9 · 00:35D. Derevynskyi4111116852T. Ponomarenko49971111113
WJul 17 · 01:25D. Derevynskyi4411814113T. Ponomarenko419111291
D. Derevynskyi10
WOct 1 · 01:35D. Derevynskyi1.677131211113O. Naida2.10111510752WOct 1 · 00:05D. Derevynskyi1.8311911113S. Abalmaz1.83911871LSep 30 · 22:35D. Derevynskyi1.801111100R. Gnoevoy1.911313123WSep 30 · 21:05D. Derevynskyi1.57111110113O. Melashenko2.25691261LSep 28 · 04:25S. Abalmaz1.83771111113D. Derevynskyi1.8311115862WSep 28 · 02:55D. Derevynskyi1.731115133S. Skachenko2.00513110LSep 28 · 00:55O. Naida2.1011114113D. Derevynskyi1.67381191WSep 27 · 22:55R. Gnoevoy1.83211581D. Derevynskyi1.8311811113WSep 27 · 21:55V. Khamurda1.913890D. Derevynskyi1.801111113WSep 26 · 03:35O. Melashenko2.201021151D. Derevynskyi1.6112117113
T. Ponomarenko10
WOct 1 · 02:05T. Ponomarenko2.5011411113S. Abalmaz1.50911331WOct 1 · 01:05T. Ponomarenko1.501111113O. Melashenko2.506550WSep 30 · 23:35T. Ponomarenko2.50121011113O. Naida1.501012791WSep 30 · 21:35T. Ponomarenko2.6311135113R. Gnoevoy1.448111181WSep 25 · 03:25V. Khamurda1.611111921T. Ponomarenko2.2081311113WSep 25 · 02:25T. Ponomarenko2.6312112113O. Naida1.441091181LSep 25 · 01:25T. Ponomarenko3.252750V. Panasenko1.331111113LSep 24 · 23:55T. Ponomarenko2.751176121R. Gnoevoy1.4071111143LSep 24 · 21:55T. Ponomarenko2.501361481S. Abalmaz1.50111116113LSep 23 · 04:05T. Ponomarenko2.386380R. Gnoevoy1.531111113
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