TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Tymur Ponomarenko vs Oleksandr Naida 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
12101012117119––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:32 and never touched: 64.9% is still 64.9%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Naida to win
64.9%
64.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTymur Ponomarenko above · Oleksandr Naida below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 82 set 4, 11-9 · our read held Oleksandr Naida at 64.9%
82 points played in total.
H2H Tymur Ponomarenko 7–17 Oleksandr Naida Tymur Ponomarenko has won 7 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:3264.9%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 1.8pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Naida
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-17 in 24
Naida
Wrong
gap of 10 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ponomarenko 1446 vs Naida 1526
Naida
Wrong
both rated, 79 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ponomarenko 60% vs Naida 40%
Ponomarenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ponomarenko 40% vs Naida 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ponomarenko +3 · Naida -1
Ponomarenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% · Clear lean (leans Naida) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Naida form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPonomarenko 2.50 / Naida 1.50
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Naida)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13219222
Ponomarenko2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog34% won 38 of 112
Down 0–1, comes back14% 9 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 42
Naida1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite52% won 77 of 148
Up 2–0, closes it98% 40 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it76% 57 of 75
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePonomarenko2wins
AwayNaida8wins
6 of 10 to a deciderNaida leads 8–2, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePonomarenko33.3%2 of 6
AwayNaida100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ponomarenko6Naida4n = 10Ponomarenko took 6 of 10
S2Ponomarenko4Naida6n = 10Naida took 6 of 10
S3Ponomarenko3Naida7n = 10Naida took 7 of 10
S4Ponomarenko2Naida5n = 7Naida took 5 of 7
S5Ponomarenko1Naida5n = 6Naida took 5 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricPonomarenkoNaidaP − NBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.642.7−5.1per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPonomarenkoNaidaBasisWin rate · lifetime213 / 399 vs 477 / 93353.4%51.1%213 / 399 vs 477 / 933Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
NaidaPonomarenko 2.50/Naida 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.9%
Naida · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Ponomarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 25 · 02:25T. Ponomarenko3612112113O. Naida381091181
LSep 22 · 22:05T. Ponomarenko47118117102O. Naida49711811123
LSep 21 · 21:25T. Ponomarenko511111101362O. Naida50931215113
LSep 16 · 00:05T. Ponomarenko135440O. Naida331111113
WSep 4 · 03:55T. Ponomarenko42117112113O. Naida3991131152
LAug 31 · 23:55T. Ponomarenko529111110112O. Naida51117812133
LAug 31 · 00:55T. Ponomarenko218850O. Naida331111113
LAug 28 · 14:35T. Ponomarenko44111031192O. Naida49712118113
LAug 25 · 23:35T. Ponomarenko229670O. Naida331111113
LAug 20 · 23:25T. Ponomarenko48111111962O. Naida52981311113
T. Ponomarenko10
WSep 30 · 21:35T. Ponomarenko2.6311135113R. Gnoevoy1.448111181WSep 25 · 03:25V. Khamurda1.611111921T. Ponomarenko2.2081311113WSep 25 · 02:25T. Ponomarenko2.6312112113O. Naida1.441091181LSep 25 · 01:25T. Ponomarenko3.252750V. Panasenko1.331111113LSep 24 · 23:55T. Ponomarenko2.751176121R. Gnoevoy1.4071111143LSep 24 · 21:55T. Ponomarenko2.501361481S. Abalmaz1.50111116113LSep 23 · 04:05T. Ponomarenko2.386380R. Gnoevoy1.531111113LSep 23 · 02:05V. Khamurda1.67111110113T. Ponomarenko2.10771261LSep 23 · 00:05S. Skachenko1.611111113T. Ponomarenko2.208340WSep 22 · 23:05T. Ponomarenko2.7511125113S. Abalmaz1.404101191
O. Naida10
LSep 30 · 22:05O. Naida2.63135961S. Abalmaz1.44111111113WSep 29 · 04:25O. Naida2.38711811113S. Skachenko1.5311311592LSep 29 · 02:25V. Khamurda1.801111113O. Naida1.917960WSep 29 · 00:25S. Abalmaz1.4446111172O. Naida2.63111156113LSep 28 · 23:25O. Naida2.386340V. Panasenko1.531111113WSep 28 · 22:25R. Gnoevoy1.8031141112O. Naida1.91114118113LSep 28 · 03:55O. Naida2.205111181S. Skachenko1.6111213113LSep 28 · 01:55R. Gnoevoy1.7311116113O. Naida2.00771161WSep 28 · 00:55O. Naida2.1011114113D. Derevynskyi1.67381191LSep 25 · 02:25T. Ponomarenko2.6312112113O. Naida1.441091181
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