TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Naida vs Serhii Skachenko 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 28Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
5111121113811––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:40 and never touched — 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeSerhii Skachenko to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Naida above · Serhii Skachenko below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 72 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Serhii Skachenko at 58.1%
72 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Naida 8–12 Serhii Skachenko Oleksandr Naida has won 8 of their 20 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:40What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Skachenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-12 in 20
Skachenko
Correct
gap of 4 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Naida 1541 vs Skachenko 1583
Skachenko
Correct
both rated, 42 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Naida 60% vs Skachenko 40%
Naida
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Naida 30% vs Skachenko 50%
Skachenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Naida -1 · Skachenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Skachenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skachenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNaida 2.20 / Skachenko 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Skachenko)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13203273
Naida2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog44% won 76 of 174
Down 0–1, comes back26% 28 of 107
Down 0–2, comes back9% 5 of 53
Skachenko1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite49% won 32 of 66
Up 2–0, closes it94% 16 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it62% 23 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNaida5wins
AwaySkachenko5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNaida75%3 of 4
AwaySkachenko66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Naida4Skachenko6n = 10Skachenko took 6 of 10
S2Naida6Skachenko4n = 10Naida took 6 of 10
S3Naida5Skachenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Naida3Skachenko4n = 7Skachenko took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricNaidaSkachenkoN − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.336.7−1.4per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNaidaSkachenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime478 / 932 vs 137 / 32651.3%42%478 / 932 vs 137 / 326Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.036.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkachenkoNaida 2.20/Skachenko 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.1%
Skachenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Skachenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 23 · 01:35O. Naida43111011113S. Skachenko34912761
WSep 22 · 00:25O. Naida351113113S. Skachenko2351170
LSep 16 · 02:05O. Naida196850S. Skachenko331111113
LSep 14 · 22:25O. Naida154650S. Skachenko331111113
WAug 28 · 15:35O. Naida514111114113S. Skachenko4811591672
WAug 27 · 23:25O. Naida4181111113S. Skachenko33117871
LAug 18 · 22:05O. Naida29112791S. Skachenko4181111113
LAug 18 · 00:55O. Naida31311981S. Skachenko3711411113
WAug 11 · 17:55O. Naida4111118113S. Skachenko37891191
LAug 10 · 22:25O. Naida48101111882S. Skachenko48127711113
O. Naida10
LSep 28 · 01:55R. Gnoevoy1.7311116113O. Naida2.00771161WSep 28 · 00:55O. Naida2.1011114113D. Derevynskyi1.67381191WSep 27 · 23:55V. Khamurda1.834950O. Naida1.831111113WSep 27 · 22:25O. Naida2.63811811123S. Abalmaz1.44119119102LSep 25 · 04:25O. Naida2.631011117122S. Abalmaz1.44126411143LSep 25 · 02:25T. Ponomarenko2.6312112113O. Naida1.441091181LSep 25 · 00:25V. Khamurda1.8011911113O. Naida1.91411851LSep 24 · 23:25O. Naida2.50101161162V. Panasenko1.50128119113LSep 24 · 22:25R. Gnoevoy1.67681111113O. Naida2.1011117992LSep 23 · 03:35O. Naida2.50771161S. Abalmaz1.5011119113
S. Skachenko10
LSep 28 · 02:55D. Derevynskyi1.731115133S. Skachenko2.00513110WSep 28 · 01:25V. Khamurda1.911081171S. Skachenko1.8012117113LSep 27 · 23:25S. Abalmaz1.8371112123S. Skachenko1.8311710101WSep 27 · 21:25R. Gnoevoy1.8011513792S. Skachenko1.919111111113LSep 23 · 03:05S. Skachenko1.67127791V. Khamurda2.10101111113LSep 23 · 01:35S. Skachenko1.57912761O. Naida2.25111011113WSep 23 · 00:05S. Skachenko1.611111113T. Ponomarenko2.208340LSep 22 · 22:35S. Skachenko1.9191214101R. Gnoevoy1.80111412123WSep 22 · 21:05S. Skachenko1.809111110113S. Abalmaz1.9111591282WSep 22 · 04:25S. Skachenko1.801111113S. Abalmaz1.919790
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