TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Naida vs Spartak Abalmaz 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 25Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 5
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
10121161147111214
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 00:01 and never touched — 64.9% is still 64.9%
Graded at full timeSpartak Abalmaz to win
64.9%
64.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Naida above · Spartak Abalmaz below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 12-14
Point 98 set 5, 12-14 — our read held Spartak Abalmaz at 64.9%
98 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Naida 45–70 Spartak Abalmaz Oleksandr Naida has won 45 of their 115 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 00:01What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Abalmaz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
45-70 in 115
Abalmaz
Correct
gap of 25 in 115, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Naida 1522 vs Abalmaz 1530
Abalmaz
Correct
both rated, 8 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Naida 0% vs Abalmaz 40%
Abalmaz
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Naida 40% vs Abalmaz 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Naida -5 · Abalmaz -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Abalmaz)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Abalmaz form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNaida 2.63 / Abalmaz 1.44
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Abalmaz)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13186873
Naida2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog45% won 77 of 171
Down 0–1, comes back28% 29 of 105
Down 0–2, comes back9% 5 of 53
Abalmaz1.44
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 158 of 271
Up 2–0, closes it96% 77 of 80
Up 1–0, closes it77% 117 of 153
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNaida4wins
AwayAbalmaz6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderAbalmaz leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNaida75%3 of 4
AwayAbalmaz83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Naida4Abalmaz6n = 10Abalmaz took 6 of 10
S2Naida3Abalmaz7n = 10Abalmaz took 7 of 10
S3Naida4Abalmaz6n = 10Abalmaz took 6 of 10
S4Naida4Abalmaz2n = 6Naida took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricNaidaAbalmazN − ABasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match32.836.2−3.4per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNaidaAbalmazBasisWin rate · lifetime475 / 927 vs 418 / 83051.2%50.4%475 / 927 vs 418 / 830Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AbalmazNaida 2.63/Abalmaz 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.9%
Abalmaz · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Abalmaz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 23 · 03:35O. Naida31771161S. Abalmaz4211119113
WSep 21 · 22:55O. Naida3711411113S. Abalmaz24511621
WSep 17 · 23:25O. Naida4181111113S. Abalmaz37118991
WSep 15 · 22:05O. Naida3611113113S. Abalmaz36891181
LSep 15 · 00:55O. Naida2671270S. Abalmaz361114113
LSep 3 · 22:25O. Naida197660S. Abalmaz331111113
WAug 31 · 22:25O. Naida4011612113S. Abalmaz357111071
LAug 30 · 22:25O. Naida51111169142S. Abalmaz50571111163
LAug 28 · 13:35O. Naida2659120S. Abalmaz361111143
LAug 28 · 02:55O. Naida217950S. Abalmaz331111113
O. Naida10
LSep 25 · 02:25T. Ponomarenko2.6312112113O. Naida1.441091181LSep 25 · 00:25V. Khamurda1.8011911113O. Naida1.91411851LSep 24 · 23:25O. Naida2.50101161162V. Panasenko1.50128119113LSep 24 · 22:25R. Gnoevoy1.67681111113O. Naida2.1011117992LSep 23 · 03:35O. Naida2.50771161S. Abalmaz1.5011119113WSep 23 · 01:35S. Skachenko1.57912761O. Naida2.25111011113WSep 23 · 00:35O. Naida2.00711119123R. Gnoevoy1.73118611102WSep 22 · 23:35V. Khamurda1.9111114882O. Naida1.80651111113WSep 22 · 22:05O. Naida1.44711811123T. Ponomarenko2.63118117102LSep 22 · 03:25O. Naida1.83791151V. Khamurda1.8311116113
S. Abalmaz10
LSep 25 · 02:55S. Abalmaz2.003490V. Panasenko1.731111113LSep 25 · 00:55R. Gnoevoy2.1071111133S. Abalmaz1.671194111LSep 24 · 22:55V. Khamurda2.2081111113S. Abalmaz1.61119831WSep 24 · 21:55T. Ponomarenko2.501361481S. Abalmaz1.50111116113WSep 23 · 03:35O. Naida2.50771161S. Abalmaz1.5011119113LSep 23 · 02:35R. Gnoevoy2.1081111113S. Abalmaz1.67118981WSep 23 · 01:05V. Khamurda2.251111751S. Abalmaz1.5713511113LSep 22 · 23:05T. Ponomarenko2.7511125113S. Abalmaz1.404101191LSep 22 · 21:05S. Skachenko1.809111110113S. Abalmaz1.9111591282LSep 22 · 04:25S. Skachenko1.801111113S. Abalmaz1.919790
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