TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Dmytro Derevynskyi vs Roman Gnoevoy 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
111311131012––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:27 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDmytro Derevynskyi to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDmytro Derevynskyi above · Roman Gnoevoy below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 10-12
Point 70 set 3, 10-12 · our read held Dmytro Derevynskyi at 54.0%
70 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Derevynskyi 75–66 Roman Gnoevoy Roman Gnoevoy has won 66 of their 141 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:2754.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Derevynskyi
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
75-66 in 141
Derevynskyi
Wrong
gap of 9 in 141, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Derevynskyi 1601 vs Gnoevoy 1559
Derevynskyi
Wrong
both rated, 42 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Derevynskyi 60% vs Gnoevoy 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Derevynskyi 50% vs Gnoevoy 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Derevynskyi +1 · Gnoevoy -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Derevynskyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDerevynskyi 1.80 / Gnoevoy 1.909
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Derevynskyi)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13219310
Derevynskyi1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 199 of 338
Up 2–0, closes it91% 94 of 103
Up 1–0, closes it73% 143 of 196
Gnoevoy1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog47% won 87 of 184
Down 0–1, comes back26% 25 of 96
Down 0–2, comes back12% 7 of 58
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDerevynskyi6wins
AwayGnoevoy4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderDerevynskyi leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDerevynskyi100%5 of 5
AwayGnoevoy80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Derevynskyi5Gnoevoy5n = 10split evenly
S2Derevynskyi6Gnoevoy4n = 10Derevynskyi took 6 of 10
S3Derevynskyi7Gnoevoy3n = 10Derevynskyi took 7 of 10
S4Derevynskyi3Gnoevoy3n = 6split evenly
S5Derevynskyi2Gnoevoy2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDerevynskyiGnoevoyD − GBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.836.2+2.6per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDerevynskyiGnoevoyBasisWin rate · lifetime480 / 880 vs 412 / 82454.6%50%480 / 880 vs 412 / 824Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.737.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DerevynskyiDerevynskyi 1.80/Gnoevoy 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Derevynskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Gnoevoy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 27 · 22:55D. Derevynskyi4111811113R. Gnoevoy26211581
WSep 17 · 22:55D. Derevynskyi331111113R. Gnoevoy205780
LSep 15 · 01:25D. Derevynskyi51911811122R. Gnoevoy52118118143
WSep 10 · 22:25D. Derevynskyi501112115113R. Gnoevoy49910131162
LSep 8 · 18:55D. Derevynskyi258980R. Gnoevoy331111113
WSep 8 · 02:25D. Derevynskyi331111113R. Gnoevoy229760
WSep 3 · 21:55D. Derevynskyi41511113113R. Gnoevoy4711891182
LSep 1 · 02:55D. Derevynskyi4786131282R. Gnoevoy5411111110113
WAug 30 · 21:25D. Derevynskyi331111113R. Gnoevoy207490
LAug 13 · 21:55D. Derevynskyi34681191R. Gnoevoy3911116113
D. Derevynskyi10
WSep 30 · 21:05D. Derevynskyi1.57111110113O. Melashenko2.25691261LSep 28 · 04:25S. Abalmaz1.83771111113D. Derevynskyi1.8311115862WSep 28 · 02:55D. Derevynskyi1.731115133S. Skachenko2.00513110LSep 28 · 00:55O. Naida2.1011114113D. Derevynskyi1.67381191WSep 27 · 22:55R. Gnoevoy1.83211581D. Derevynskyi1.8311811113WSep 27 · 21:55V. Khamurda1.913890D. Derevynskyi1.801111113WSep 26 · 03:35O. Melashenko2.201021151D. Derevynskyi1.6112117113LSep 26 · 02:35O. Gomilko1.501111113D. Derevynskyi2.505690LSep 26 · 01:05K. Hrynenko2.10711119113D. Derevynskyi1.6711881182LSep 25 · 23:05V. Lobas1.4011123113D. Derevynskyi2.756101161
R. Gnoevoy10
LSep 30 · 21:35T. Ponomarenko2.6311135113R. Gnoevoy1.448111181LSep 29 · 03:55R. Gnoevoy2.5010630V. Panasenko1.501211113WSep 29 · 01:55S. Abalmaz1.67118561R. Gnoevoy2.1051111113WSep 29 · 00:55R. Gnoevoy1.831211113S. Skachenko1.8310650WSep 28 · 23:55V. Khamurda1.801011681R. Gnoevoy1.9112611113LSep 28 · 22:25R. Gnoevoy1.8031141112O. Naida1.91114118113LSep 28 · 03:25R. Gnoevoy2.206490V. Khamurda1.611111113WSep 28 · 01:55R. Gnoevoy1.7311116113O. Naida2.00771161LSep 28 · 00:25R. Gnoevoy2.10881291S. Abalmaz1.67111110113LSep 27 · 22:55R. Gnoevoy1.83211581D. Derevynskyi1.8311811113
Upcoming Matches
D. Derevynskyi
R. Gnoevoy
Oct 1 · 00:35R. Gnoevoy1.67O. Naida2.10—Oct 1 · 02:35R. Gnoevoy1.36O. Melashenko3.00—Oct 1 · 04:05R. Gnoevoy2.10S. Abalmaz1.67—Oct 1 · 21:25R. Gnoevoy2.63V. Panasenko1.44—Oct 1 · 23:25R. Gnoevoy1.67O. Naida2.10—Oct 2 · 01:25R. Gnoevoy2.10V. Khamurda1.67—Oct 2 · 02:55R. Gnoevoy2.10S. Abalmaz1.67—Oct 2 · 03:55R. Gnoevoy1.36O. Melashenko3.00—
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.