TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Vitalii Khamurda vs Dmytro Derevynskyi 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
311811911––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:35 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDmytro Derevynskyi to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVitalii Khamurda above · Dmytro Derevynskyi below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 53 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Dmytro Derevynskyi at 54.0%
53 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Khamurda 59–52 Dmytro Derevynskyi Dmytro Derevynskyi has won 52 of their 111 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:35What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Derevynskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
59-52 in 111
Khamurda
Wrong
gap of 7 in 111, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Khamurda 1564 vs Derevynskyi 1591
Derevynskyi
Correct
both rated, 27 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Khamurda 60% vs Derevynskyi 40%
Khamurda
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Khamurda 60% vs Derevynskyi 40%
Khamurda
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Khamurda -2 · Derevynskyi +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Derevynskyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Derevynskyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKhamurda 1.91 / Derevynskyi 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Derevynskyi)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13205910
Khamurda1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 25)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog47% won 68 of 146
Down 0–1, comes back32% 28 of 89
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 44
Derevynskyi1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 26)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 198 of 339
Up 2–0, closes it91% 93 of 102
Up 1–0, closes it72% 142 of 196
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKhamurda6wins
AwayDerevynskyi4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKhamurda leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKhamurda50%2 of 4
AwayDerevynskyi33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Khamurda4Derevynskyi6n = 10Derevynskyi took 6 of 10
S2Khamurda5Derevynskyi5n = 10split evenly
S3Khamurda5Derevynskyi5n = 10split evenly
S4Khamurda5Derevynskyi2n = 7Khamurda took 5 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKhamurdaDerevynskyiK − DBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.935.6+0.3per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKhamurdaDerevynskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime471 / 876 vs 481 / 88053.8%54.7%471 / 876 vs 481 / 880Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.239.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DerevynskyiKhamurda 1.91/Derevynskyi 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Derevynskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Derevynskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 27 · 21:55V. Khamurda203890D. Derevynskyi331111113
WSep 17 · 21:55V. Khamurda4281112113D. Derevynskyi331141081
WSep 15 · 03:25V. Khamurda331111113D. Derevynskyi258890
WSep 11 · 00:25V. Khamurda4011711113D. Derevynskyi34711791
LSep 8 · 19:55V. Khamurda217770D. Derevynskyi331111113
LSep 8 · 03:25V. Khamurda431199141D. Derevynskyi4791111163
LSep 3 · 22:55V. Khamurda32117681D. Derevynskyi4181111113
WAug 31 · 22:55V. Khamurda50611913113D. Derevynskyi44118111132
WAug 31 · 01:25V. Khamurda3841211113D. Derevynskyi311110371
WAug 26 · 00:05V. Khamurda4071111113D. Derevynskyi35119691
V. Khamurda10
LSep 25 · 03:25V. Khamurda1.611111921T. Ponomarenko2.2081311113LSep 25 · 01:55V. Khamurda1.73158991R. Gnoevoy2.00131111113WSep 25 · 00:25V. Khamurda1.8011911113O. Naida1.91411851WSep 24 · 22:55V. Khamurda2.2081111113S. Abalmaz1.61119831WSep 24 · 21:25V. Khamurda2.631011116113V. Panasenko1.4412971172WSep 23 · 03:05S. Skachenko1.67127791V. Khamurda2.10101111113WSep 23 · 02:05V. Khamurda1.67111110113T. Ponomarenko2.10771261LSep 23 · 01:05V. Khamurda2.251111751S. Abalmaz1.5713511113LSep 22 · 23:35V. Khamurda1.9111114882O. Naida1.80651111113WSep 22 · 21:35V. Khamurda1.67111210113R. Gnoevoy2.109101271
D. Derevynskyi10
WSep 27 · 22:55R. Gnoevoy1.83211581D. Derevynskyi1.8311811113WSep 26 · 03:35O. Melashenko2.201021151D. Derevynskyi1.6112117113LSep 26 · 02:35O. Gomilko1.501111113D. Derevynskyi2.505690LSep 26 · 01:05K. Hrynenko2.10711119113D. Derevynskyi1.6711881182LSep 25 · 23:05V. Lobas1.4011123113D. Derevynskyi2.756101161WSep 25 · 21:05Y. Krol2.633790D. Derevynskyi1.441111113LSep 24 · 20:25S. Khandetskyi2.5016611113D. Derevynskyi1.501411971WSep 24 · 18:55D. Derevynskyi1.67111410113H. Kulishov2.109121291LSep 24 · 16:55V. Kobets2.251111610113D. Derevynskyi1.5745111242LSep 24 · 14:55Y. Sokoltsov2.3811119113D. Derevynskyi1.53771181
Upcoming Matches
V. Khamurda
Sep 27 · 23:55V. Khamurda1.83O. Naida1.83—Sep 28 · 01:25V. Khamurda1.91S. Skachenko1.80—Sep 28 · 02:25V. Khamurda2.20S. Abalmaz1.61—Sep 28 · 03:25V. Khamurda1.61R. Gnoevoy2.20—Sep 28 · 21:55V. Khamurda1.91S. Skachenko1.80—Sep 28 · 23:55V. Khamurda1.61R. Gnoevoy2.20—Sep 29 · 01:25V. Khamurda2.50V. Panasenko1.50—Sep 29 · 02:25V. Khamurda1.83O. Naida1.83—Sep 29 · 03:25V. Khamurda2.20S. Abalmaz1.61—
D. Derevynskyi
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