TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Yan Krol vs Dmytro Derevynskyi 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
51111131181113––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:03 and never touched: 63.5% is still 63.5%
Graded at full timeDmytro Derevynskyi to win
63.5%
63.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingYan Krol above · Dmytro Derevynskyi below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-13
Point 83 set 4, 11-13 · our read held Dmytro Derevynskyi at 63.5%
83 points played in total.
H2H Yan Krol 32–61 Dmytro Derevynskyi Yan Krol has won 32 of their 93 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:0363.5%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 5.8pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Derevynskyi
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
32-61 in 93
Derevynskyi
Correct
gap of 29 in 93, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krol 1634 vs Derevynskyi 1592
Krol
Wrong
both rated, 42 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krol 80% vs Derevynskyi 60%
Krol
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krol 70% vs Derevynskyi 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Krol +1 · Derevynskyi -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Derevynskyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krol form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrol 2.625 / Derevynskyi 1.444
Signal prob.37% / 64%
Edge (Derevynskyi)-5.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13228918
Krol2.63
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Sep 27)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 65 of 145
Down 0–1, comes back31% 29 of 93
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 40
Derevynskyi1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 01)
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 201 of 342
Up 2–0, closes it91% 95 of 104
Up 1–0, closes it73% 144 of 198
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrol3wins
AwayDerevynskyi7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderDerevynskyi leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKroln = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayDerevynskyi87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krol2Derevynskyi8n = 10Derevynskyi took 8 of 10
S2Krol5Derevynskyi5n = 10split evenly
S3Krol2Derevynskyi8n = 10Derevynskyi took 8 of 10
S4Krol3Derevynskyi2n = 5Krol took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrolDerevynskyiK − DBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match31.935.8−3.9per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrolDerevynskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime302 / 588 vs 480 / 88151.4%54.5%302 / 588 vs 480 / 881Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.939.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DerevynskyiKrol 2.63/Derevynskyi 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.5%
Derevynskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Derevynskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 25 · 21:05Y. Krol193790D. Derevynskyi331111113
WSep 18 · 21:05Y. Krol4111711123D. Derevynskyi348115101
WSep 12 · 01:35Y. Krol361211133D. Derevynskyi26105110
LSep 4 · 21:05Y. Krol239680D. Derevynskyi331111113
LAug 28 · 21:05Y. Krol25512441D. Derevynskyi43111011113
LAug 22 · 03:05Y. Krol2768130D. Derevynskyi371111153
LAug 15 · 01:35Y. Krol29611481D. Derevynskyi3611311113
LAug 9 · 04:05Y. Krol238690D. Derevynskyi331111113
LAug 1 · 01:35Y. Krol45611711102D. Derevynskyi43116113123
WJul 29 · 04:05Y. Krol511011811113D. Derevynskyi4012911262
Y. Krol10
WSep 27 · 04:05O. Melashenko3.75101190Y. Krol1.251213113LSep 27 · 02:35Y. Krol1.8391280M. Marchuk1.831114113WSep 27 · 00:35V. Kobets2.639711101Y. Krol1.4411111113WSep 26 · 22:35V. Lobas1.6711781162Y. Krol2.10911115113WSep 26 · 21:35O. Gomilko1.73710111172Y. Krol2.00111249113WSep 26 · 03:05Y. Krol1.7381111113K. Hrynenko2.00114481WSep 26 · 01:35Y. Krol1.2512119113O. Melashenko3.751071191WSep 26 · 00:05Y. Krol2.1071111113V. Lobas1.67118961LSep 25 · 22:35Y. Krol2.0041111672O. Gomilko1.73119611113LSep 25 · 21:05Y. Krol2.633790D. Derevynskyi1.441111113
D. Derevynskyi10
LOct 1 · 03:05D. Derevynskyi1.6711961172T. Ponomarenko2.10411119113WOct 1 · 01:35D. Derevynskyi1.677131211113O. Naida2.10111510752WOct 1 · 00:05D. Derevynskyi1.8311911113S. Abalmaz1.83911871LSep 30 · 22:35D. Derevynskyi1.801111100R. Gnoevoy1.911313123WSep 30 · 21:05D. Derevynskyi1.57111110113O. Melashenko2.25691261LSep 28 · 04:25S. Abalmaz1.83771111113D. Derevynskyi1.8311115862WSep 28 · 02:55D. Derevynskyi1.731115133S. Skachenko2.00513110LSep 28 · 00:55O. Naida2.1011114113D. Derevynskyi1.67381191WSep 27 · 22:55R. Gnoevoy1.83211581D. Derevynskyi1.8311811113WSep 25 · 21:05Y. Krol2.633790D. Derevynskyi1.441111113
Upcoming Matches
Y. Krol
Oct 3 · 00:05Y. Krol2.00V. Lobas1.73—Oct 3 · 01:35Y. Krol1.73K. Hrynenko2.00—Oct 3 · 03:05Y. Krol1.80M. Marchuk1.91—Oct 3 · 22:05Y. Krol1.22O. Melashenko4.00—Oct 3 · 23:05Y. Krol2.10O. Gomilko1.67—Oct 4 · 00:05Y. Krol2.00V. Lobas1.73—Oct 4 · 02:05Y. Krol1.40V. Kobets2.75—Oct 4 · 04:05Y. Krol1.73K. Hrynenko2.00—
D. Derevynskyi
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