TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Yan Krol vs Maxim Marchuk 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 6
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
9111214811––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:35 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeYan Krol to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingYan Krol above · Maxim Marchuk below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 65 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Yan Krol at 54.0%
65 points played in total.
H2H Yan Krol 70–76 Maxim Marchuk Yan Krol has won 70 of their 146 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:35What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Marchuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
70-76 in 146
Marchuk
Correct
gap of 6 in 146, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krol 1623 vs Marchuk 1514
Krol
Wrong
both rated, 109 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krol 100% vs Marchuk 40%
Krol
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krol 70% vs Marchuk 40%
Krol
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krol +6 · Marchuk -1
Krol
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Krol)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marchuk form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrol 1.83 / Marchuk 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Krol)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13197449
Krol1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 6
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Marchuk1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrol4wins
AwayMarchuk6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMarchuk leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrol50%3 of 6
AwayMarchuk75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krol6Marchuk4n = 10Krol took 6 of 10
S2Krol4Marchuk6n = 10Marchuk took 6 of 10
S3Krol6Marchuk4n = 10Krol took 6 of 10
S4Krol1Marchuk6n = 7Marchuk took 6 of 7
S5Krol2Marchuk2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrolMarchukK − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.239.3−1.1per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrolMarchukBasisWin rate · lifetime301 / 588 vs 203 / 45551.2%44.6%301 / 588 vs 203 / 455Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrolKrol 1.83/Marchuk 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Krol · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Marchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 27 · 02:35Y. Krol2991280M. Marchuk361114113
WSep 19 · 23:05Y. Krol331111113M. Marchuk178450
WSep 18 · 22:35Y. Krol341211113M. Marchuk2110470
LSep 12 · 23:05Y. Krol331161061M. Marchuk4061112113
LSep 5 · 23:05Y. Krol281133111M. Marchuk3831111133
WAug 30 · 02:35Y. Krol47591111113M. Marchuk4411119852
LAug 23 · 00:35Y. Krol3621111572M. Marchuk46116711113
LAug 15 · 22:05Y. Krol571511116142M. Marchuk56174811163
LAug 9 · 02:05Y. Krol31167531M. Marchuk47141111113
WAug 2 · 04:05Y. Krol54169117113M. Marchuk48141181142
Y. Krol10
WSep 27 · 00:35V. Kobets2.639711101Y. Krol1.4411111113WSep 26 · 22:35V. Lobas1.6711781162Y. Krol2.10911115113WSep 26 · 21:35O. Gomilko1.73710111172Y. Krol2.00111249113WSep 26 · 03:05Y. Krol1.7381111113K. Hrynenko2.00114481WSep 26 · 01:35Y. Krol1.2512119113O. Melashenko3.751071191WSep 26 · 00:05Y. Krol2.1071111113V. Lobas1.67118961LSep 25 · 22:35Y. Krol2.0041111672O. Gomilko1.73119611113LSep 25 · 21:05Y. Krol2.633790D. Derevynskyi1.441111113WSep 20 · 04:05Y. Krol1.2511119113O. Melashenko3.75991191LSep 20 · 02:05O. Gomilko1.6711118113Y. Krol2.10981191
M. Marchuk10
LSep 27 · 01:05O. Gomilko1.73911811113M. Marchuk2.0011311652WSep 26 · 23:05O. Melashenko1.53121165142M. Marchuk2.381061111163LSep 26 · 21:05V. Lobas1.3691111113M. Marchuk3.00119871WSep 20 · 03:35K. Hrynenko1.617370M. Marchuk2.201111113LSep 20 · 02:35O. Melashenko1.611111113M. Marchuk2.207670WSep 20 · 01:05O. Gomilko1.808119111M. Marchuk1.9111611133LSep 19 · 23:05Y. Krol1.831111113M. Marchuk1.838450LSep 19 · 21:05V. Lobas1.361311113M. Marchuk3.0011190WSep 19 · 04:05V. Lobas1.339430M. Marchuk3.251111113LSep 19 · 02:35M. Marchuk2.501568111D. Derevynskyi1.50131111133
Upcoming Matches
Y. Krol
M. Marchuk
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