TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13155630
Played Sep 20Finished
Oleksandr Gomilko
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8111169111113––
Maxim Marchuk
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:16 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Gomilko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Gomilko above · Maxim Marchuk below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-13
Point 80 set 4, 11-13 — our read held Oleksandr Gomilko at 54.0%
80 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Gomilko 77–74 Maxim Marchuk Maxim Marchuk has won 74 of their 151 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:16What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Gomilko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
77-74 in 151
Gomilko
Wrong
gap of 3 in 151, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gomilko 1573 vs Marchuk 1455
Gomilko
Wrong
both rated, 118 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gomilko 20% vs Marchuk 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gomilko 40% vs Marchuk 20%
Gomilko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Gomilko -4 · Marchuk -2
Gomilko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Gomilko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marchuk form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGomilko 1.80 / Marchuk 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Gomilko)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13155630
Gomilko1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite61% won 111 of 182
Up 2–0, closes it94% 46 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it78% 77 of 99
Marchuk1.91
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 46 of 111
Down 0–1, comes back21% 11 of 53
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGomilko6wins
AwayMarchuk4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderGomilko leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGomilko85.7%6 of 7
AwayMarchuk100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gomilko7Marchuk3n = 10Gomilko took 7 of 10
S2Gomilko3Marchuk7n = 10Marchuk took 7 of 10
S3Gomilko5Marchuk5n = 10split evenly
S4Gomilko5Marchuk3n = 8Gomilko took 5 of 8
S5Gomilko2Marchuk1n = 3Gomilko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricGomilkoMarchukG − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.736.6+2.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGomilkoMarchukBasisWin rate · lifetime319 / 568 vs 209 / 47056.2%44.5%319 / 568 vs 209 / 470Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GomilkoGomilko 1.80/Marchuk 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.3%
Gomilko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Marchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 19 · 24:35O. Gomilko48117711123M. Marchuk47811117102
WSep 13 · 01:05O. Gomilko4211911113M. Marchuk25811151
WSep 6 · 01:05O. Gomilko4211911113M. Marchuk28811451
LAug 30 · 01:05O. Gomilko27101160M. Marchuk361213113
WAug 22 · 23:35O. Gomilko4011711113M. Marchuk28411671
LAug 16 · 24:05O. Gomilko345101181M. Marchuk4311129113
LAug 9 · 01:05O. Gomilko3811117362M. Marchuk48961111113
LAug 2 · 02:35O. Gomilko341011851M. Marchuk4312911113
WJul 25 · 21:05O. Gomilko46116711113M. Marchuk4061111842
WJul 19 · 03:05O. Gomilko361311123M. Marchuk28117100
O. Gomilko10
LSep 19 · 23:35O. Gomilko1.6189110K. Hrynenko2.201111133LSep 19 · 21:35O. Gomilko1.8061171152O. Melashenko1.91116116113LSep 19 · 03:35O. Gomilko1.50613691D. Derevynskyi2.50111111113LSep 19 · 01:35Y. Krol1.911111113O. Gomilko1.805970WSep 19 · 24:35O. Gomilko1.83117711123M. Marchuk1.83811117102LSep 18 · 23:35K. Hrynenko2.2511412113O. Gomilko1.578111051WSep 18 · 22:05O. Gomilko2.00101111123V. Lobas1.731298101LSep 13 · 03:05V. Lobas1.801211113O. Gomilko1.9110850WSep 13 · 02:05O. Gomilko1.7311114113Y. Krol2.00571191WSep 13 · 01:05O. Gomilko1.8311911113M. Marchuk1.83811151
M. Marchuk10
LSep 19 · 23:05Y. Krol1.831111113M. Marchuk1.838450LSep 19 · 21:05V. Lobas1.361311113M. Marchuk3.0011190WSep 19 · 04:05V. Lobas1.339430M. Marchuk3.251111113LSep 19 · 02:35M. Marchuk2.501568111D. Derevynskyi1.50131111133LSep 19 · 24:35O. Gomilko1.83117711123M. Marchuk1.83811117102LSep 18 · 22:35Y. Krol1.801211113M. Marchuk1.9110470WSep 18 · 21:35K. Hrynenko1.6191141382M. Marchuk2.201151111113LSep 13 · 03:35K. Hrynenko1.671111113M. Marchuk2.109830LSep 13 · 02:35O. Melashenko1.618111311113M. Marchuk2.2011615672LSep 13 · 01:05O. Gomilko1.8311911113M. Marchuk1.83811151
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