TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13155418
Played Sep 19Finished
Yan Krol
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118114115––––
Maxim Marchuk
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:47 and never touched — 55.1% is still 55.1%
Graded at full timeYan Krol to win
55.1%
55.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYan Krol above · Maxim Marchuk below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 50 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Yan Krol at 55.1%
50 points played in total.
H2H Yan Krol 69–75 Maxim Marchuk Yan Krol has won 69 of their 144 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 18:47What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Marchuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
69-75 in 144
Marchuk
Wrong
gap of 6 in 144, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krol 1600 vs Marchuk 1464
Krol
Correct
both rated, 136 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krol 40% vs Marchuk 20%
Krol
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krol 50% vs Marchuk 30%
Krol
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krol -2 · Marchuk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Krol) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marchuk form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrol 1.83 / Marchuk 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Krol)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13155418
Krol1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Marchuk1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrol4wins
AwayMarchuk6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMarchuk leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrol50%3 of 6
AwayMarchuk75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krol6Marchuk4n = 10Krol took 6 of 10
S2Krol4Marchuk6n = 10Marchuk took 6 of 10
S3Krol7Marchuk3n = 10Krol took 7 of 10
S4Krol1Marchuk7n = 8Marchuk took 7 of 8
S5Krol2Marchuk2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrolMarchukK − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.441.0−1.6per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrolMarchukBasisWin rate · lifetime299 / 588 vs 210 / 47150.9%44.6%299 / 588 vs 210 / 471Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrolKrol 1.83/Marchuk 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Krol · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Krol won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 18 · 22:35Y. Krol341211113M. Marchuk2110470
LSep 12 · 23:05Y. Krol331161061M. Marchuk4061112113
LSep 5 · 23:05Y. Krol281133111M. Marchuk3831111133
WAug 30 · 02:35Y. Krol47591111113M. Marchuk4411119852
LAug 23 · 24:35Y. Krol3621111572M. Marchuk46116711113
LAug 15 · 22:05Y. Krol571511116142M. Marchuk56174811163
LAug 9 · 02:05Y. Krol31167531M. Marchuk47141111113
WAug 2 · 04:05Y. Krol54169117113M. Marchuk48141181142
LJul 25 · 22:35Y. Krol388111361M. Marchuk46111311113
WJul 19 · 24:05Y. Krol361114113M. Marchuk2471250
Y. Krol10
LSep 19 · 22:05K. Hrynenko2.1011117123Y. Krol1.676611101LSep 19 · 03:05Y. Krol1.676280K. Hrynenko2.101111113WSep 19 · 01:35Y. Krol1.911111113O. Gomilko1.805970LSep 19 · 24:05Y. Krol2.0061111952V. Lobas1.73119911113WSep 18 · 22:35Y. Krol1.801211113M. Marchuk1.9110470WSep 18 · 21:05Y. Krol2.6311711123D. Derevynskyi1.448115101WSep 13 · 04:05Y. Krol1.251312113O. Melashenko3.75111080LSep 13 · 02:05O. Gomilko1.7311114113Y. Krol2.00571191WSep 13 · 24:05V. Lobas1.671110481Y. Krol2.1061211113LSep 12 · 23:05Y. Krol1.801161061M. Marchuk1.9161112113
M. Marchuk10
LSep 19 · 21:05V. Lobas1.361311113M. Marchuk3.0011190WSep 19 · 04:05V. Lobas1.339430M. Marchuk3.251111113LSep 19 · 02:35M. Marchuk2.501568111D. Derevynskyi1.50131111133LSep 19 · 24:35O. Gomilko1.83117711123M. Marchuk1.83811117102LSep 18 · 22:35Y. Krol1.801211113M. Marchuk1.9110470WSep 18 · 21:35K. Hrynenko1.6191141382M. Marchuk2.201151111113LSep 13 · 03:35K. Hrynenko1.671111113M. Marchuk2.109830LSep 13 · 02:35O. Melashenko1.618111311113M. Marchuk2.2011615672LSep 13 · 01:05O. Gomilko1.8311911113M. Marchuk1.83811151WSep 12 · 23:05Y. Krol1.801161061M. Marchuk1.9161112113
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