TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13155412
Played Sep 19Finished
Kostiantyn Hrynenko
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1161167111210––
Yan Krol
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:48 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeYan Krol to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKostiantyn Hrynenko above · Yan Krol below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 74 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Yan Krol at 56.2%
74 points played in total.
H2H Kostiantyn Hrynenko 42–58 Yan Krol Kostiantyn Hrynenko has won 42 of their 100 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 18:48What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Krol
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
42-58 in 100
Krol
Wrong
gap of 16 in 100, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hrynenko 1609 vs Krol 1612
Krol
Wrong
both rated, 3 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hrynenko 80% vs Krol 60%
Hrynenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hrynenko 60% vs Krol 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hrynenko +4 · Krol -1
Hrynenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Krol)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hrynenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHrynenko 2.10 / Krol 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Krol)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13155412
Hrynenko2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog43% won 144 of 334
Down 0–1, comes back26% 46 of 179
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 90
Krol1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite67% won 68 of 101
Up 2–0, closes it93% 28 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it86% 48 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHrynenko4wins
AwayKrol6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKrol leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHrynenko80%4 of 5
AwayKrol100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hrynenko5Krol5n = 10split evenly
S2Hrynenko5Krol5n = 10split evenly
S3Hrynenko6Krol4n = 10Hrynenko took 6 of 10
S4Hrynenko2Krol3n = 5Krol took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricHrynenkoKrolH − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.835.3−0.5per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHrynenkoKrolBasisWin rate · lifetime423 / 906 vs 300 / 58846.7%51%423 / 906 vs 300 / 588Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrolHrynenko 2.10/Krol 1.67
Miss
What we said
56.2%
Krol · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Hrynenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 19 · 03:05K. Hrynenko331111113Y. Krol166280
LSep 12 · 22:05K. Hrynenko238690Y. Krol331111113
LSep 12 · 03:05K. Hrynenko376111281Y. Krol4211614113
WSep 5 · 22:05K. Hrynenko331111113Y. Krol246990
WSep 5 · 03:05K. Hrynenko3912511113Y. Krol311011461
WAug 30 · 04:05K. Hrynenko371212133Y. Krol311010110
LAug 29 · 03:05K. Hrynenko4281251162Y. Krol511110118113
LAug 23 · 02:35K. Hrynenko4111611672Y. Krol45511711113
LAug 22 · 01:35K. Hrynenko37971291Y. Krol43111110113
LAug 16 · 24:35K. Hrynenko26411110Y. Krol371113133
K. Hrynenko10
WSep 19 · 03:05Y. Krol1.676280K. Hrynenko2.101111113WSep 19 · 02:05K. Hrynenko2.5011119113V. Lobas1.50381191WSep 19 · 01:05K. Hrynenko2.10121178113D. Derevynskyi1.67109111182WSep 18 · 23:35K. Hrynenko2.2511412113O. Gomilko1.578111051LSep 18 · 21:35K. Hrynenko1.6191141382M. Marchuk2.201151111113LSep 18 · 03:55K. Hrynenko2.0078100S. Abalmaz1.731111123WSep 18 · 01:55R. Gnoevoy1.57741141K. Hrynenko2.2511115113LSep 18 · 24:55K. Hrynenko2.20118871D. Derevynskyi1.6191111113WSep 17 · 23:55V. Khamurda1.807101261K. Hrynenko1.91111210113LSep 17 · 22:25K. Hrynenko1.83671181O. Naida1.8311118113
Y. Krol10
WSep 19 · 23:05Y. Krol1.831111113M. Marchuk1.838450LSep 19 · 03:05Y. Krol1.676280K. Hrynenko2.101111113WSep 19 · 01:35Y. Krol1.911111113O. Gomilko1.805970LSep 19 · 24:05Y. Krol2.0061111952V. Lobas1.73119911113WSep 18 · 22:35Y. Krol1.801211113M. Marchuk1.9110470WSep 18 · 21:05Y. Krol2.6311711123D. Derevynskyi1.448115101WSep 13 · 04:05Y. Krol1.251312113O. Melashenko3.75111080LSep 13 · 02:05O. Gomilko1.7311114113Y. Krol2.00571191WSep 13 · 24:05V. Lobas1.671110481Y. Krol2.1061211113LSep 12 · 23:05Y. Krol1.801161061M. Marchuk1.9161112113
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