TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13148865
Played Sep 19Finished
Kostiantyn Hrynenko
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1210119711811118
Dmytro Derevynskyi
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:08 and never touched — 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeDmytro Derevynskyi to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKostiantyn Hrynenko above · Dmytro Derevynskyi below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 98 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Dmytro Derevynskyi at 58.1%
98 points played in total.
H2H Kostiantyn Hrynenko 67–111 Dmytro Derevynskyi Kostiantyn Hrynenko has won 67 of their 178 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:08What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Derevynskyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
67-111 in 178
Derevynskyi
Wrong
gap of 44 in 178, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hrynenko 1567 vs Derevynskyi 1614
Derevynskyi
Wrong
both rated, 47 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hrynenko 40% vs Derevynskyi 80%
Derevynskyi
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hrynenko 40% vs Derevynskyi 70%
Derevynskyi
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hrynenko +1 · Derevynskyi +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Derevynskyi) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Derevynskyi form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHrynenko 2.10 / Derevynskyi 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Derevynskyi)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13148865
Hrynenko2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 141 of 330
Down 0–1, comes back26% 47 of 179
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 90
Derevynskyi1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 193 of 330
Up 2–0, closes it91% 89 of 98
Up 1–0, closes it71% 138 of 194
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHrynenko5wins
AwayDerevynskyi5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHrynenko66.7%4 of 6
AwayDerevynskyi75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hrynenko6Derevynskyi4n = 10Hrynenko took 6 of 10
S2Hrynenko3Derevynskyi7n = 10Derevynskyi took 7 of 10
S3Hrynenko2Derevynskyi8n = 10Derevynskyi took 8 of 10
S4Hrynenko5Derevynskyi3n = 8Hrynenko took 5 of 8
S5Hrynenko3Derevynskyi1n = 4Hrynenko took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricHrynenkoDerevynskyiH − DBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.640.4−1.8per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHrynenkoDerevynskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime420 / 903 vs 483 / 88046.5%54.9%420 / 903 vs 483 / 880Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.039.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DerevynskyiHrynenko 2.10/Derevynskyi 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.2%
Derevynskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Hrynenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 18 · 24:55K. Hrynenko34118871D. Derevynskyi4291111113
LSep 11 · 23:35K. Hrynenko34711791D. Derevynskyi4011711113
WSep 7 · 23:55K. Hrynenko4211119113D. Derevynskyi31831191
WSep 5 · 01:05K. Hrynenko3711411113D. Derevynskyi29511761
WSep 2 · 04:05K. Hrynenko49114518113D. Derevynskyi54711111692
WAug 29 · 01:05K. Hrynenko48119611113D. Derevynskyi4251111962
LAug 27 · 04:25K. Hrynenko2561360D. Derevynskyi371115113
LAug 21 · 23:35K. Hrynenko47141113632D. Derevynskyi571281511113
LAug 19 · 22:05K. Hrynenko2381050D. Derevynskyi341112113
WAug 15 · 03:35K. Hrynenko47941112113D. Derevynskyi38111111052
K. Hrynenko10
WSep 19 · 03:05Y. Krol1.676280K. Hrynenko2.101111113WSep 19 · 02:05K. Hrynenko2.5011119113V. Lobas1.50381191WSep 18 · 23:35K. Hrynenko2.2511412113O. Gomilko1.578111051LSep 18 · 21:35K. Hrynenko1.6191141382M. Marchuk2.201151111113LSep 18 · 03:55K. Hrynenko2.0078100S. Abalmaz1.731111123WSep 18 · 01:55R. Gnoevoy1.57741141K. Hrynenko2.2511115113LSep 18 · 24:55K. Hrynenko2.20118871D. Derevynskyi1.6191111113WSep 17 · 23:55V. Khamurda1.807101261K. Hrynenko1.91111210113LSep 17 · 22:25K. Hrynenko1.83671181O. Naida1.8311118113LSep 15 · 04:05K. Hrynenko1.575570O. Melashenko2.251111113
D. Derevynskyi10
WSep 19 · 02:35M. Marchuk2.501568111D. Derevynskyi1.50131111133WSep 18 · 23:05V. Lobas1.441111101162D. Derevynskyi2.63561213113LSep 18 · 21:05Y. Krol2.6311711123D. Derevynskyi1.448115101WSep 18 · 04:25O. Naida2.00101150D. Derevynskyi1.731213113WSep 18 · 02:55D. Derevynskyi1.8311114113S. Abalmaz1.83591171WSep 18 · 24:55K. Hrynenko2.20118871D. Derevynskyi1.6191111113WSep 17 · 22:55R. Gnoevoy2.005780D. Derevynskyi1.731111113LSep 17 · 21:55V. Khamurda1.9181112113D. Derevynskyi1.801141081WSep 15 · 19:25D. Derevynskyi1.57961111123V. Kobets2.25111136102LSep 15 · 17:55D. Derevynskyi1.4481370Y. Sokoltsov2.631115113
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