TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Melashenko vs Maxim Marchuk 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
12101166115111416
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:17 and never touched — 64.0% is still 64.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Melashenko to win
64.0%
64.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Melashenko above · Maxim Marchuk below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 14-16
Point 102 set 5, 14-16 — our read held Oleksandr Melashenko at 64.0%
102 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Melashenko 38–24 Maxim Marchuk Maxim Marchuk has won 24 of their 62 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:17What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Melashenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
38-24 in 62
Melashenko
Wrong
gap of 14 in 62, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melashenko 1581 vs Marchuk 1489
Melashenko
Wrong
both rated, 92 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melashenko 60% vs Marchuk 40%
Melashenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melashenko 60% vs Marchuk 30%
Melashenko
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Melashenko +1 · Marchuk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Melashenko)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelashenko 1.53 / Marchuk 2.38
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Melashenko)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13196709
Melashenko1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 83 of 130
Up 2–0, closes it100% 37 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it80% 55 of 69
Marchuk2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 46 of 107
Down 0–1, comes back19% 10 of 52
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMelashenko9wins
AwayMarchuk1wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMelashenko leads 9–1, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelashenko80%4 of 5
AwayMarchuk0%0 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melashenko5Marchuk5n = 10split evenly
S2Melashenko10Marchuk0n = 10Melashenko took 10 of 10
S3Melashenko5Marchuk5n = 10split evenly
S4Melashenko6Marchuk2n = 8Melashenko took 6 of 8
S5Melashenko3Marchuk1n = 4Melashenko took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMelashenkoMarchukMelashenko − MarchukBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match43.937.0+6.9per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelashenkoMarchukBasisWin rate · lifetime430 / 858 vs 203 / 45550.1%44.6%430 / 858 vs 203 / 455Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MelashenkoMelashenko 1.53/Marchuk 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64%
Melashenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Marchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 26 · 23:05O. Melashenko48121165142M. Marchuk541061111163
WSep 20 · 02:35O. Melashenko331111113M. Marchuk207670
WSep 13 · 02:35O. Melashenko548111311113M. Marchuk4511615672
WSep 6 · 02:35O. Melashenko4181111113M. Marchuk31116771
WAug 30 · 03:35O. Melashenko49131312113M. Marchuk4515111091
WAug 22 · 22:05O. Melashenko351111133M. Marchuk2467110
WAug 1 · 21:35O. Melashenko42311116113M. Marchuk4011661162
WJul 26 · 01:35O. Melashenko43111110113M. Marchuk30961231
WJul 18 · 21:05O. Melashenko3911116113M. Marchuk36991171
WJul 12 · 03:35O. Melashenko551311911113M. Marchuk4515711752
O. Melashenko10
WSep 26 · 22:05V. Kobets2.20111183102O. Melashenko1.61981111123LSep 26 · 03:35O. Melashenko2.201021151D. Derevynskyi1.6112117113LSep 26 · 01:35Y. Krol1.2512119113O. Melashenko3.751071191WSep 26 · 00:35O. Melashenko1.911211113O. Gomilko1.8010480WSep 25 · 23:35K. Hrynenko1.7311711141O. Melashenko2.0013117163LSep 25 · 22:05O. Melashenko2.636960V. Lobas1.441111113WSep 24 · 19:25Y. Sokoltsov2.2088100O. Melashenko1.611111123WSep 24 · 18:25O. Melashenko2.00111011113S. Khandetskyi1.73612931LSep 24 · 17:25O. Melashenko2.1071111762H. Kulishov1.67117711113WSep 24 · 15:55O. Melashenko1.671111113V. Kobets2.108870
M. Marchuk10
LSep 26 · 21:05V. Lobas1.3691111113M. Marchuk3.00119871WSep 20 · 03:35K. Hrynenko1.617370M. Marchuk2.201111113LSep 20 · 02:35O. Melashenko1.611111113M. Marchuk2.207670WSep 20 · 01:05O. Gomilko1.808119111M. Marchuk1.9111611133LSep 19 · 23:05Y. Krol1.831111113M. Marchuk1.838450LSep 19 · 21:05V. Lobas1.361311113M. Marchuk3.0011190WSep 19 · 04:05V. Lobas1.339430M. Marchuk3.251111113LSep 19 · 02:35M. Marchuk2.501568111D. Derevynskyi1.50131111133LSep 19 · 00:35O. Gomilko1.83117711123M. Marchuk1.83811117102LSep 18 · 22:35Y. Krol1.801211113M. Marchuk1.9110470
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