TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13155034
Played Sep 20Finished
Oleksandr Melashenko
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 6
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117116117––––
Maxim Marchuk
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:37 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Melashenko to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Melashenko above · Maxim Marchuk below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 53 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Oleksandr Melashenko at 58.9%
53 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Melashenko 37–23 Maxim Marchuk Maxim Marchuk has won 23 of their 60 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:37What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Melashenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
37-23 in 60
Melashenko
Correct
gap of 14 in 60, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melashenko 1591 vs Marchuk 1471
Melashenko
Correct
both rated, 120 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melashenko 100% vs Marchuk 40%
Melashenko
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melashenko 70% vs Marchuk 30%
Melashenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Melashenko +6 · Marchuk +1
Melashenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Melashenko) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melashenko form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelashenko 1.61 / Marchuk 2.20
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Melashenko)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13155034
Melashenko1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 6
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 83 of 134
Up 2–0, closes it100% 35 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it78% 53 of 68
Marchuk2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 46 of 111
Down 0–1, comes back21% 11 of 53
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMelashenko9wins
AwayMarchuk1wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMelashenko leads 9–1, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelashenko100%3 of 3
AwayMarchuk14.3%1 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melashenko3Marchuk7n = 10Marchuk took 7 of 10
S2Melashenko8Marchuk2n = 10Melashenko took 8 of 10
S3Melashenko5Marchuk5n = 10split evenly
S4Melashenko7Marchuk1n = 8Melashenko took 7 of 8
S5Melashenko4Marchuk0n = 4Melashenko took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMelashenkoMarchukMelashenko − MarchukBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match42.837.0+5.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelashenkoMarchukBasisWin rate · lifetime436 / 861 vs 210 / 47050.6%44.7%436 / 861 vs 210 / 470Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MelashenkoMelashenko 1.61/Marchuk 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.9%
Melashenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Melashenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 13 · 02:35O. Melashenko548111311113M. Marchuk4511615672
WSep 6 · 02:35O. Melashenko4181111113M. Marchuk31116771
WAug 30 · 03:35O. Melashenko49131312113M. Marchuk4515111091
WAug 22 · 22:05O. Melashenko351111133M. Marchuk2467110
WAug 1 · 21:35O. Melashenko42311116113M. Marchuk4011661162
WJul 26 · 01:35O. Melashenko43111110113M. Marchuk30961231
WJul 18 · 21:05O. Melashenko3911116113M. Marchuk36991171
WJul 12 · 03:35O. Melashenko551311911113M. Marchuk4515711752
WJul 5 · 03:35O. Melashenko521091111113M. Marchuk4112119542
LJun 21 · 03:35O. Melashenko185760M. Marchuk331111113
O. Melashenko10
WSep 20 · 24:35K. Hrynenko1.6110360O. Melashenko2.201211113WSep 19 · 22:35V. Lobas1.3311470O. Melashenko3.251311113WSep 19 · 21:35O. Gomilko1.8061171152O. Melashenko1.91116116113WSep 17 · 04:05O. Melashenko2.20781114123H. Kulishov1.611111712102WSep 17 · 02:05D. Kim2.00811481O. Melashenko1.7311911113WSep 17 · 24:05S. Khandetskyi1.618950O. Melashenko2.201111113LSep 16 · 23:05O. Melashenko1.2514590D. Rehotun3.751611113WSep 16 · 22:05S. Pitsyk2.637990O. Melashenko1.441111113LSep 15 · 20:25O. Melashenko2.0051030S. Khandetskyi1.731112113LSep 15 · 18:25V. Kobets2.1011117143O. Melashenko1.677511121
M. Marchuk10
WSep 20 · 03:35K. Hrynenko1.617370M. Marchuk2.201111113WSep 20 · 01:05O. Gomilko1.808119111M. Marchuk1.9111611133LSep 19 · 23:05Y. Krol1.831111113M. Marchuk1.838450LSep 19 · 21:05V. Lobas1.361311113M. Marchuk3.0011190WSep 19 · 04:05V. Lobas1.339430M. Marchuk3.251111113LSep 19 · 02:35M. Marchuk2.501568111D. Derevynskyi1.50131111133LSep 19 · 24:35O. Gomilko1.83117711123M. Marchuk1.83811117102LSep 18 · 22:35Y. Krol1.801211113M. Marchuk1.9110470WSep 18 · 21:35K. Hrynenko1.6191141382M. Marchuk2.201151111113LSep 13 · 03:35K. Hrynenko1.671111113M. Marchuk2.109830
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