TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Melashenko vs Valentyn Lobas 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 25Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611911611––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:17 and never touched — 66.1% is still 66.1%
Graded at full timeValentyn Lobas to win
66.1%
66.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Melashenko above · Valentyn Lobas below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 54 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Valentyn Lobas at 66.1%
54 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Melashenko 15–31 Valentyn Lobas Oleksandr Melashenko has won 15 of their 46 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:17What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Lobas
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-31 in 46
Lobas
Correct
gap of 16 in 46, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melashenko 1597 vs Lobas 1639
Lobas
Correct
both rated, 42 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melashenko 60% vs Lobas 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melashenko 70% vs Lobas 40%
Melashenko
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Melashenko +2 · Lobas -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Lobas)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melashenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelashenko 2.63 / Lobas 1.44
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Lobas)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13191629
Melashenko2.63
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Sep 24)
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog39% won 107 of 273
Down 0–1, comes back21% 34 of 163
Down 0–2, comes back7% 6 of 91
Lobas1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Sep 20)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 110 of 176
Up 2–0, closes it92% 61 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it79% 91 of 115
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMelashenko5wins
AwayLobas5wins
Level at 5–5.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelashenko100%3 of 3
AwayLobas71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melashenko3Lobas7n = 10Lobas took 7 of 10
S2Melashenko4Lobas6n = 10Lobas took 6 of 10
S3Melashenko6Lobas4n = 10Melashenko took 6 of 10
S4Melashenko3Lobas1n = 4Melashenko took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricMelashenkoLobasM − LBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match30.233.4−3.2per matchSweeps24−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelashenkoLobasBasisWin rate · lifetime434 / 861 vs 239 / 41750.4%57.3%434 / 861 vs 239 / 417Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LobasMelashenko 2.63/Lobas 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.1%
Lobas · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Lobas won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 19 · 22:35O. Melashenko351311113V. Lobas2211470
LSep 12 · 22:35O. Melashenko2712870V. Lobas361411113
LSep 11 · 23:05O. Melashenko135440V. Lobas331111113
WSep 5 · 22:35O. Melashenko341112113V. Lobas2461080
WSep 4 · 22:05O. Melashenko4491211123V. Lobas4011109101
WAug 30 · 01:35O. Melashenko4011711113V. Lobas30811741
LAug 23 · 00:05O. Melashenko1710340V. Lobas341211113
LAug 21 · 23:05O. Melashenko219840V. Lobas331111113
WAug 15 · 02:05O. Melashenko3521111113V. Lobas35117981
LAug 2 · 03:05O. Melashenko3611121121V. Lobas4713149113
O. Melashenko10
WSep 24 · 19:25Y. Sokoltsov2.2088100O. Melashenko1.611111123WSep 24 · 18:25O. Melashenko2.00111011113S. Khandetskyi1.73612931LSep 24 · 17:25O. Melashenko2.1071111762H. Kulishov1.67117711113WSep 24 · 15:55O. Melashenko1.671111113V. Kobets2.108870LSep 24 · 13:55O. Melashenko2.25118111042D. Derevynskyi1.57911912113LSep 20 · 04:05Y. Krol1.2511119113O. Melashenko3.75991191WSep 20 · 02:35O. Melashenko1.611111113M. Marchuk2.207670WSep 20 · 00:35K. Hrynenko1.6110360O. Melashenko2.201211113WSep 19 · 22:35V. Lobas1.3311470O. Melashenko3.251311113WSep 19 · 21:35O. Gomilko1.8061171152O. Melashenko1.91116116113
V. Lobas10
WSep 25 · 23:05V. Lobas1.4011123113D. Derevynskyi2.756101161LSep 20 · 03:05V. Lobas1.7371050O. Gomilko2.001112113WSep 20 · 01:35V. Lobas1.441114113K. Hrynenko2.6391280WSep 20 · 00:05V. Lobas1.7311511113Y. Krol2.00811951LSep 19 · 22:35V. Lobas1.3311470O. Melashenko3.251311113WSep 19 · 21:05V. Lobas1.361311113M. Marchuk3.0011190LSep 19 · 04:05V. Lobas1.339430M. Marchuk3.251111113LSep 19 · 02:05K. Hrynenko2.5011119113V. Lobas1.50381191WSep 19 · 00:05Y. Krol2.0061111952V. Lobas1.73119911113LSep 18 · 23:05V. Lobas1.441111101162D. Derevynskyi2.63561213113
Upcoming Matches
O. Melashenko
Sep 25 · 23:35O. Melashenko2.00K. Hrynenko1.73—Sep 26 · 00:35O. Melashenko1.91O. Gomilko1.80—Sep 26 · 01:35O. Melashenko3.75Y. Krol1.25—Sep 26 · 03:35O. Melashenko2.20D. Derevynskyi1.61—Sep 26 · 22:05O. Melashenko1.61V. Kobets2.20—Sep 26 · 23:05O. Melashenko1.53M. Marchuk2.38—Sep 27 · 00:05O. Melashenko2.63V. Lobas1.44—Sep 27 · 02:05O. Melashenko1.91O. Gomilko1.80—Sep 27 · 04:05O. Melashenko3.75Y. Krol1.25—
V. Lobas
Sep 26 · 00:05V. Lobas1.67Y. Krol2.10—Sep 26 · 02:05V. Lobas1.50K. Hrynenko2.50—Sep 26 · 04:05V. Lobas1.83O. Gomilko1.83—Sep 26 · 21:05V. Lobas1.36M. Marchuk3.00—Sep 26 · 22:35V. Lobas1.67Y. Krol2.10—Sep 27 · 00:05V. Lobas1.44O. Melashenko2.63—Sep 27 · 01:35V. Lobas1.44V. Kobets2.63—Sep 27 · 03:05V. Lobas1.83O. Gomilko1.83—
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