TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13156146
Played Sep 20Finished
Valentyn Lobas
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118511119115––
Yan Krol
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:35 and never touched — 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeValentyn Lobas to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingValentyn Lobas above · Yan Krol below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 71 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Valentyn Lobas at 57.0%
71 points played in total.
H2H Valentyn Lobas 38–35 Yan Krol Yan Krol has won 35 of their 73 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:35What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Lobas
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
38-35 in 73
Lobas
Correct
gap of 3 in 73, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lobas 1633 vs Krol 1609
Lobas
Correct
both rated, 23 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lobas 40% vs Krol 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lobas 40% vs Krol 60%
Krol
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lobas -1 · Krol +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Lobas) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lobas form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLobas 1.73 / Krol 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Lobas)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13156146
Lobas1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 111 of 176
Up 2–0, closes it93% 62 of 67
Up 1–0, closes it79% 92 of 117
Krol2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 65 of 145
Down 0–1, comes back30% 27 of 90
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLobas5wins
AwayKrol5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLobas62.5%5 of 8
AwayKroln = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lobas8Krol2n = 10Lobas took 8 of 10
S2Lobas2Krol8n = 10Krol took 8 of 10
S3Lobas5Krol5n = 10split evenly
S4Lobas3Krol6n = 9Krol took 6 of 9
S5Lobas3Krol1n = 4Lobas took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricLobasKrolL − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match39.840.5−0.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLobasKrolBasisWin rate · lifetime237 / 414 vs 300 / 58957.3%50.9%237 / 414 vs 300 / 589Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LobasLobas 1.73/Krol 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Lobas · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Lobas won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 19 · 24:05V. Lobas51119911113Y. Krol4261111952
LSep 13 · 24:05V. Lobas331110481Y. Krol4061211113
WSep 12 · 24:05V. Lobas44118311113Y. Krol4241111792
WSep 6 · 24:05V. Lobas46111176113Y. Krol4494111192
WSep 5 · 24:05V. Lobas361212123Y. Krol301010100
LAug 29 · 22:35V. Lobas301051141Y. Krol4312119113
LAug 29 · 24:05V. Lobas4711913952Y. Krol495111111113
LAug 22 · 22:35V. Lobas34971171Y. Krol4011117113
LAug 22 · 24:05V. Lobas36118891Y. Krol3851111113
WAug 15 · 23:35V. Lobas4111811113Y. Krol37911981
V. Lobas10
WSep 20 · 01:35V. Lobas1.441114113K. Hrynenko2.6391280LSep 19 · 22:35V. Lobas1.3311470O. Melashenko3.251311113WSep 19 · 21:05V. Lobas1.361311113M. Marchuk3.0011190LSep 19 · 04:05V. Lobas1.339430M. Marchuk3.251111113LSep 19 · 02:05K. Hrynenko2.5011119113V. Lobas1.50381191WSep 19 · 24:05Y. Krol2.0061111952V. Lobas1.73119911113LSep 18 · 23:05V. Lobas1.441111101162D. Derevynskyi2.63561213113LSep 18 · 22:05O. Gomilko2.00101111123V. Lobas1.731298101WSep 13 · 03:05V. Lobas1.801211113O. Gomilko1.9110850WSep 13 · 01:35V. Lobas1.531111113K. Hrynenko2.389210
Y. Krol10
WSep 19 · 23:05Y. Krol1.831111113M. Marchuk1.838450LSep 19 · 22:05K. Hrynenko2.1011117123Y. Krol1.676611101LSep 19 · 03:05Y. Krol1.676280K. Hrynenko2.101111113WSep 19 · 01:35Y. Krol1.911111113O. Gomilko1.805970LSep 19 · 24:05Y. Krol2.0061111952V. Lobas1.73119911113WSep 18 · 22:35Y. Krol1.801211113M. Marchuk1.9110470WSep 18 · 21:05Y. Krol2.6311711123D. Derevynskyi1.448115101WSep 13 · 04:05Y. Krol1.251312113O. Melashenko3.75111080LSep 13 · 02:05O. Gomilko1.7311114113Y. Krol2.00571191WSep 13 · 24:05V. Lobas1.671110481Y. Krol2.1061211113
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