TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Melashenko vs Dmytro Derevynskyi 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 24Finished
Oleksandr Melashenko
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1198111191012411
Dmytro Derevynskyi
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:31 and never touched — 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeDmytro Derevynskyi to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Melashenko above · Dmytro Derevynskyi below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 96 set 5, 4-11 — our read held Dmytro Derevynskyi at 60.1%
96 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Melashenko 26–49 Dmytro Derevynskyi Oleksandr Melashenko has won 26 of their 75 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:31What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Derevynskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
26-49 in 75
Derevynskyi
Correct
gap of 23 in 75, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melashenko 1588 vs Derevynskyi 1607
Derevynskyi
Correct
both rated, 18 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melashenko 80% vs Derevynskyi 60%
Melashenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melashenko 80% vs Derevynskyi 60%
Melashenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Melashenko -1 · Derevynskyi -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Derevynskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melashenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelashenko 2.25 / Derevynskyi 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Derevynskyi)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13186301
Melashenko2.25
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Sep 20)
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog39% won 106 of 272
Down 0–1, comes back21% 34 of 163
Down 0–2, comes back7% 6 of 92
Derevynskyi1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite59% won 198 of 338
Up 2–0, closes it91% 91 of 100
Up 1–0, closes it71% 140 of 197
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMelashenko3wins
AwayDerevynskyi7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderDerevynskyi leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelashenko33.3%1 of 3
AwayDerevynskyi71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melashenko3Derevynskyi7n = 10Derevynskyi took 7 of 10
S2Melashenko4Derevynskyi6n = 10Derevynskyi took 6 of 10
S3Melashenko5Derevynskyi5n = 10split evenly
S4Melashenko4Derevynskyi4n = 8split evenly
S5Melashenko1Derevynskyi3n = 4Derevynskyi took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMelashenkoDerevynskyiM − DBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match37.140.9−3.8per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelashenkoDerevynskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime436 / 861 vs 480 / 87550.6%54.9%436 / 861 vs 480 / 875Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.139.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DerevynskyiMelashenko 2.25/Derevynskyi 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Derevynskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Derevynskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 15 · 16:25O. Melashenko196760D. Derevynskyi331111113
WSep 12 · 03:35O. Melashenko571491111123D. Derevynskyi541211138102
LSep 5 · 03:35O. Melashenko4478111172D. Derevynskyi43111119113
LSep 2 · 24:05O. Melashenko28611561D. Derevynskyi4011711113
LAug 22 · 01:05O. Melashenko29125931D. Derevynskyi43101111113
LAug 14 · 23:35O. Melashenko47129111052D. Derevynskyi521011812113
WAug 5 · 18:25O. Melashenko44111111113D. Derevynskyi38138981
LJul 29 · 13:55O. Melashenko216870D. Derevynskyi331111113
LJul 27 · 02:55O. Melashenko4691111962D. Derevynskyi47117711113
WJul 25 · 23:35O. Melashenko3631111113D. Derevynskyi26115551
O. Melashenko10
WSep 24 · 15:55O. Melashenko1.671111113V. Kobets2.108870LSep 20 · 04:05Y. Krol1.2511119113O. Melashenko3.75991191WSep 20 · 02:35O. Melashenko1.611111113M. Marchuk2.207670WSep 20 · 24:35K. Hrynenko1.6110360O. Melashenko2.201211113WSep 19 · 22:35V. Lobas1.3311470O. Melashenko3.251311113WSep 19 · 21:35O. Gomilko1.8061171152O. Melashenko1.91116116113WSep 17 · 04:05O. Melashenko2.20781114123H. Kulishov1.611111712102WSep 17 · 02:05D. Kim2.00811481O. Melashenko1.7311911113WSep 17 · 24:05S. Khandetskyi1.618950O. Melashenko2.201111113LSep 16 · 23:05O. Melashenko1.2514590D. Rehotun3.751611113
D. Derevynskyi10
LSep 24 · 14:55Y. Sokoltsov2.3811119113D. Derevynskyi1.53771181LSep 24 · 04:25D. Derevynskyi1.738860H. Kulishov2.001111113WSep 24 · 02:25Y. Stepanchuk3.25117771D. Derevynskyi1.3371111113LSep 24 · 24:25S. Khandetskyi2.50149117113D. Derevynskyi1.50121141152WSep 23 · 23:25D. Derevynskyi1.571111113K. Hrynenko2.256790WSep 23 · 22:25S. Pitsyk2.75115631D. Derevynskyi1.4071111113WSep 19 · 03:35O. Gomilko1.50613691D. Derevynskyi2.50111111113WSep 19 · 02:35M. Marchuk2.501568111D. Derevynskyi1.50131111133LSep 19 · 01:05K. Hrynenko2.10121178113D. Derevynskyi1.67109111182WSep 18 · 23:05V. Lobas1.441111101162D. Derevynskyi2.63561213113
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