TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Kostiantyn Hrynenko vs Dmytro Derevynskyi 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 7
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
3111186111210511
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:31 and never touched: 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeDmytro Derevynskyi to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingKostiantyn Hrynenko above · Dmytro Derevynskyi below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 88 set 5, 5-11 · our read held Dmytro Derevynskyi at 56.5%
88 points played in total.
H2H Kostiantyn Hrynenko 69–112 Dmytro Derevynskyi Kostiantyn Hrynenko has won 69 of their 181 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:3156.5%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 7.2pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Derevynskyi
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
69-112 in 181
Derevynskyi
Correct
gap of 43 in 181, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hrynenko 1673 vs Derevynskyi 1590
Hrynenko
Wrong
both rated, 83 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hrynenko 100% vs Derevynskyi 40%
Hrynenko
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hrynenko 80% vs Derevynskyi 50%
Hrynenko
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hrynenko +7 · Derevynskyi -1
Hrynenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Derevynskyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Derevynskyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHrynenko 2.25 / Derevynskyi 1.571
Signal prob.44% / 57%
Edge (Derevynskyi)-7.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13229393
Hrynenko2.25
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 7
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog44% won 140 of 322
Down 0–1, comes back27% 46 of 173
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 86
Derevynskyi1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 201 of 342
Up 2–0, closes it91% 95 of 104
Up 1–0, closes it73% 144 of 198
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHrynenko6wins
AwayDerevynskyi4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderHrynenko leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHrynenko83.3%5 of 6
AwayDerevynskyi75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hrynenko6Derevynskyi4n = 10Hrynenko took 6 of 10
S2Hrynenko4Derevynskyi6n = 10Derevynskyi took 6 of 10
S3Hrynenko2Derevynskyi8n = 10Derevynskyi took 8 of 10
S4Hrynenko4Derevynskyi4n = 8split evenly
S5Hrynenko4Derevynskyi0n = 4Hrynenko took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricHrynenkoDerevynskyiH − DBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.940.3−1.4per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHrynenkoDerevynskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime425 / 900 vs 481 / 88447.2%54.4%425 / 900 vs 481 / 884Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.939.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DerevynskyiHrynenko 2.25/Derevynskyi 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.5%
Derevynskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Derevynskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 26 · 01:05K. Hrynenko49711119113D. Derevynskyi4611881182
LSep 23 · 23:25K. Hrynenko226790D. Derevynskyi331111113
WSep 19 · 01:05K. Hrynenko49121178113D. Derevynskyi49109111182
LSep 18 · 00:55K. Hrynenko34118871D. Derevynskyi4291111113
LSep 11 · 23:35K. Hrynenko34711791D. Derevynskyi4011711113
WSep 7 · 23:55K. Hrynenko4211119113D. Derevynskyi31831191
WSep 5 · 01:05K. Hrynenko3711411113D. Derevynskyi29511761
WSep 2 · 04:05K. Hrynenko49114518113D. Derevynskyi54711111692
WAug 29 · 01:05K. Hrynenko48119611113D. Derevynskyi4251111962
LAug 27 · 04:25K. Hrynenko2561360D. Derevynskyi371115113
K. Hrynenko10
WOct 3 · 01:35Y. Krol1.738870K. Hrynenko2.001111113WOct 3 · 00:35K. Hrynenko2.00511711113O. Gomilko1.7311911472WOct 2 · 23:35M. Marchuk2.10118681K. Hrynenko1.6751111113WOct 2 · 22:05K. Hrynenko2.501111113V. Lobas1.507990WSep 28 · 19:55V. Kobets4.331061171K. Hrynenko1.2012117113WSep 28 · 18:55A. Peretiatko2.508890K. Hrynenko1.501111113WSep 28 · 17:25D. Rehotun2.20511781K. Hrynenko1.6111511113LSep 28 · 15:25S. Khandetskyi2.501311113K. Hrynenko1.5011490WSep 28 · 13:25Y. Sokoltsov3.50412111172K. Hrynenko1.281110133113LSep 26 · 03:05Y. Krol1.7381111113K. Hrynenko2.00114481
D. Derevynskyi10
LOct 3 · 02:35O. Gomilko1.50101112113D. Derevynskyi2.501231071WOct 3 · 01:05M. Marchuk2.50117111372D. Derevynskyi1.50511715113LOct 2 · 23:05V. Lobas1.441110118113D. Derevynskyi2.6341261172WOct 2 · 21:05Y. Krol2.6351111111D. Derevynskyi1.4411138133LOct 1 · 03:05D. Derevynskyi1.6711961172T. Ponomarenko2.10411119113WOct 1 · 01:35D. Derevynskyi1.677131211113O. Naida2.10111510752WOct 1 · 00:05D. Derevynskyi1.8311911113S. Abalmaz1.83911871LSep 30 · 22:35D. Derevynskyi1.801111100R. Gnoevoy1.911313123WSep 30 · 21:05D. Derevynskyi1.57111110113O. Melashenko2.25691261LSep 28 · 04:25S. Abalmaz1.83771111113D. Derevynskyi1.8311115862
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