TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Gomilko vs Dmytro Derevynskyi 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
10121131210117––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:28 and never touched: 63.7% is still 63.7%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Gomilko to win
63.7%
63.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Gomilko above · Dmytro Derevynskyi below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 76 set 4, 11-7 · our read held Oleksandr Gomilko at 63.7%
76 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Gomilko 66–32 Dmytro Derevynskyi Dmytro Derevynskyi has won 32 of their 98 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:2863.7%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 3.0pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Gomilko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
66-32 in 98
Gomilko
Correct
gap of 34 in 98, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gomilko 1594 vs Derevynskyi 1602
Derevynskyi
Wrong
both rated, 8 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gomilko 60% vs Derevynskyi 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gomilko 50% vs Derevynskyi 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Gomilko -1 · Derevynskyi +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Gomilko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Derevynskyi form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGomilko 1.50 / Derevynskyi 2.50
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Gomilko)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13229067
Gomilko1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 107 of 179
Up 2–0, closes it94% 44 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it77% 73 of 95
Derevynskyi2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog37% won 30 of 81
Down 0–1, comes back27% 12 of 45
Down 0–2, comes back14% 3 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGomilko6wins
AwayDerevynskyi4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderGomilko leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGomilko80%4 of 5
AwayDerevynskyi60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gomilko5Derevynskyi5n = 10split evenly
S2Gomilko5Derevynskyi5n = 10split evenly
S3Gomilko6Derevynskyi4n = 10Gomilko took 6 of 10
S4Gomilko4Derevynskyi3n = 7Gomilko took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricGomilkoDerevynskyiG − DBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.033.1+0.9per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGomilkoDerevynskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime319 / 566 vs 481 / 88356.4%54.5%319 / 566 vs 481 / 883Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.839.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
GomilkoGomilko 1.50/Derevynskyi 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.7%
Gomilko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Gomilko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 26 · 02:35O. Gomilko331111113D. Derevynskyi205690
LSep 19 · 03:35O. Gomilko34613691D. Derevynskyi44111111113
LSep 12 · 00:35O. Gomilko185760D. Derevynskyi331111113
LSep 5 · 02:35O. Gomilko32114981D. Derevynskyi4181111113
WAug 29 · 02:35O. Gomilko4011117113D. Derevynskyi28861131
WAug 21 · 21:35O. Gomilko4071111113D. Derevynskyi31115781
WAug 15 · 00:35O. Gomilko371412113D. Derevynskyi28121060
WAug 9 · 02:35O. Gomilko4411814113D. Derevynskyi337111231
LJul 26 · 01:05O. Gomilko28871121D. Derevynskyi4011117113
O. Gomilko10
LOct 3 · 00:35K. Hrynenko2.00511711113O. Gomilko1.7311911472WOct 2 · 22:35Y. Krol2.1077111172O. Gomilko1.67111168113LOct 2 · 21:35M. Marchuk1.91111148113O. Gomilko1.8065111192WSep 27 · 03:05V. Lobas1.838680O. Gomilko1.831111113WSep 27 · 02:05O. Gomilko1.911311117123O. Melashenko1.80151911102WSep 27 · 01:05O. Gomilko1.73911811113M. Marchuk2.0011311652LSep 26 · 23:35O. Gomilko1.507630V. Kobets2.501111113LSep 26 · 21:35O. Gomilko1.73710111172Y. Krol2.00111249113LSep 26 · 04:05V. Lobas1.83911118113O. Gomilko1.8311851182WSep 26 · 02:35O. Gomilko1.501111113D. Derevynskyi2.505690
D. Derevynskyi10
WOct 3 · 03:35K. Hrynenko2.2531161252D. Derevynskyi1.571181110113WOct 3 · 01:05M. Marchuk2.50117111372D. Derevynskyi1.50511715113LOct 2 · 23:05V. Lobas1.441110118113D. Derevynskyi2.6341261172WOct 2 · 21:05Y. Krol2.6351111111D. Derevynskyi1.4411138133LOct 1 · 03:05D. Derevynskyi1.6711961172T. Ponomarenko2.10411119113WOct 1 · 01:35D. Derevynskyi1.677131211113O. Naida2.10111510752WOct 1 · 00:05D. Derevynskyi1.8311911113S. Abalmaz1.83911871LSep 30 · 22:35D. Derevynskyi1.801111100R. Gnoevoy1.911313123WSep 30 · 21:05D. Derevynskyi1.57111110113O. Melashenko2.25691261LSep 26 · 02:35O. Gomilko1.501111113D. Derevynskyi2.505690
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