TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Maxim Marchuk vs Oleksandr Gomilko 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
116115411811119
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:04 and never touched: 54.3% is still 54.3%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Gomilko to win
54.3%
54.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Oleksandr Gomilko @ 1.80 · Lost
How it is goingMaxim Marchuk above · Oleksandr Gomilko below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 87 set 5, 11-9 · our read held Oleksandr Gomilko at 54.3%
87 points played in total.
H2H Maxim Marchuk 75–78 Oleksandr Gomilko Maxim Marchuk has won 75 of their 153 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickConfirm
Sealed 20:0454.3%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.3pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Gomilko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
75-78 in 153
Gomilko
Wrong
gap of 3 in 153, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marchuk 1490 vs Gomilko 1606
Gomilko
Wrong
both rated, 116 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marchuk 40% vs Gomilko 60%
Gomilko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marchuk 40% vs Gomilko 60%
Gomilko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Marchuk -1 · Gomilko +3
Gomilko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Gomilko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marchuk form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarchuk 1.909 / Gomilko 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Gomilko)-1.3pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13229228
Marchuk1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Sep 27)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 41 of 102
Down 0–1, comes back20% 10 of 51
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 34
Gomilko1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Sep 27)
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 107 of 179
Up 2–0, closes it94% 44 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it77% 73 of 95
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarchuk5wins
AwayGomilko5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarchuk80%4 of 5
AwayGomilko80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marchuk5Gomilko5n = 10split evenly
S2Marchuk6Gomilko4n = 10Marchuk took 6 of 10
S3Marchuk6Gomilko4n = 10Marchuk took 6 of 10
S4Marchuk4Gomilko5n = 9Gomilko took 5 of 9
S5Marchuk1Gomilko2n = 3Gomilko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMarchukGomilkoM − GBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.539.4−1.9per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarchukGomilkoBasisWin rate · lifetime203 / 456 vs 319 / 56944.5%56.1%203 / 456 vs 319 / 569Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
GomilkoMarchuk 1.91/Gomilko 1.80
Miss
What we said
54.3%
Gomilko · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Oleksandr Gomilko @ 1.80 · Lost
What happened
3–2
Marchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 27 · 01:05M. Marchuk3611311652O. Gomilko50911811113
WSep 20 · 01:05M. Marchuk4111611133O. Gomilko398119111
LSep 19 · 00:35M. Marchuk47811117102O. Gomilko48117711123
LSep 13 · 01:05M. Marchuk25811151O. Gomilko4211911113
LSep 6 · 01:05M. Marchuk28811451O. Gomilko4211911113
WAug 30 · 01:05M. Marchuk361213113O. Gomilko27101160
LAug 22 · 23:35M. Marchuk28411671O. Gomilko4011711113
WAug 16 · 00:05M. Marchuk4311129113O. Gomilko345101181
WAug 9 · 01:05M. Marchuk48961111113O. Gomilko3811117362
WAug 2 · 02:35M. Marchuk4312911113O. Gomilko341011851
M. Marchuk10
LSep 27 · 03:35V. Kobets2.20111265113M. Marchuk1.61810111182WSep 27 · 02:35Y. Krol1.8391280M. Marchuk1.831114113LSep 27 · 01:05O. Gomilko1.73911811113M. Marchuk2.0011311652WSep 26 · 23:05O. Melashenko1.53121165142M. Marchuk2.381061111163LSep 26 · 21:05V. Lobas1.3691111113M. Marchuk3.00119871WSep 20 · 03:35K. Hrynenko1.617370M. Marchuk2.201111113LSep 20 · 02:35O. Melashenko1.611111113M. Marchuk2.207670WSep 20 · 01:05O. Gomilko1.808119111M. Marchuk1.9111611133LSep 19 · 23:05Y. Krol1.831111113M. Marchuk1.838450LSep 19 · 21:05V. Lobas1.361311113M. Marchuk3.0011190
O. Gomilko10
WSep 27 · 03:05V. Lobas1.838680O. Gomilko1.831111113WSep 27 · 02:05O. Gomilko1.911311117123O. Melashenko1.80151911102WSep 27 · 01:05O. Gomilko1.73911811113M. Marchuk2.0011311652LSep 26 · 23:35O. Gomilko1.507630V. Kobets2.501111113LSep 26 · 21:35O. Gomilko1.73710111172Y. Krol2.00111249113LSep 26 · 04:05V. Lobas1.83911118113O. Gomilko1.8311851182WSep 26 · 02:35O. Gomilko1.501111113D. Derevynskyi2.505690LSep 26 · 00:35O. Melashenko1.911211113O. Gomilko1.8010480WSep 25 · 22:35Y. Krol2.0041111672O. Gomilko1.73119611113LSep 20 · 01:05O. Gomilko1.808119111M. Marchuk1.9111611133
Upcoming Matches
M. Marchuk
O. Gomilko
Oct 3 · 00:35O. Gomilko1.73K. Hrynenko2.00—Oct 3 · 02:35O. Gomilko1.50D. Derevynskyi2.50—Oct 3 · 04:05O. Gomilko1.80V. Lobas1.91—Oct 3 · 21:05O. Gomilko1.80V. Lobas1.91—Oct 3 · 23:05O. Gomilko1.67Y. Krol2.10—Oct 4 · 01:05O. Gomilko1.73V. Kobets2.00—Oct 4 · 02:35O. Gomilko1.73K. Hrynenko2.00—Oct 4 · 03:35O. Gomilko1.83O. Melashenko1.83—
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.