TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Dmytro Rehotun vs Dmytro Derevynskyi 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 6
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
12147111191614911
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:31 and never touched: 69.9% is still 69.9%
Graded at full timeDmytro Derevynskyi to win
69.9%
69.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingDmytro Rehotun above · Dmytro Derevynskyi below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 16-14
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 114 set 5, 9-11 · our read held Dmytro Derevynskyi at 69.9%
114 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Rehotun 17–24 Dmytro Derevynskyi Dmytro Rehotun has won 17 of their 41 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:3169.9%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 1.5pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Derevynskyi
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
17-24 in 41
Derevynskyi
Correct
gap of 7 in 41, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rehotun 1435 vs Derevynskyi 1604
Derevynskyi
Correct
both rated, 168 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rehotun 100% vs Derevynskyi 60%
Rehotun
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rehotun 80% vs Derevynskyi 60%
Rehotun
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rehotun +6 · Derevynskyi +1
Rehotun
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% · Clear lean (leans Derevynskyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Derevynskyi form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRehotun 2.75 / Derevynskyi 1.40
Signal prob.30% / 70%
Edge (Derevynskyi)-1.5pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13250616
Rehotun2.75
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Sep 30)
Won last 6
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 12 of 36
Down 0–1, comes back22% 5 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back8% 1 of 13
Derevynskyi1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Oct 03)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 199 of 338
Up 2–0, closes it91% 96 of 105
Up 1–0, closes it73% 143 of 196
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRehotun1wins
AwayDerevynskyi9wins
4 of 10 to a deciderDerevynskyi leads 9–1, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRehotun33.3%1 of 3
AwayDerevynskyi100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rehotun3Derevynskyi7n = 10Derevynskyi took 7 of 10
S2Rehotun2Derevynskyi8n = 10Derevynskyi took 8 of 10
S3Rehotun5Derevynskyi5n = 10split evenly
S4Rehotun4Derevynskyi4n = 8split evenly
S5Rehotun0Derevynskyi3n = 3Derevynskyi took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricRehotunDerevynskyiR − DBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match34.742.1−7.4per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRehotunDerevynskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime206 / 414 vs 482 / 88549.8%54.5%206 / 414 vs 482 / 885Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.239.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DerevynskyiRehotun 2.75/Derevynskyi 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.9%
Derevynskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Derevynskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 15 · 13:25D. Rehotun207760D. Derevynskyi331111113
LSep 1 · 23:05D. Rehotun3841014101D. Derevynskyi47111212123
LFeb 3 · 23:55D. Rehotun4011371182D. Derevynskyi47611118113
LJan 27 · 22:55D. Rehotun51131111972D. Derevynskyi54158911113
LJan 6 · 14:35D. Rehotun3951161162D. Derevynskyi45117115113
LJan 6 · 04:55D. Rehotun347611101D. Derevynskyi4311119123
WJan 1 · 13:05D. Rehotun4011711113D. Derevynskyi31511871
LDec 22 · 23:55D. Rehotun273311101D. Derevynskyi4211118123
LNov 18 · 04:55D. Rehotun2381320D. Derevynskyi371115113
D. Rehotun10
WSep 30 · 19:25D. Us2.10121111572D. Rehotun1.671013711113WSep 30 · 18:25D. Rehotun2.00111111113M. Fomin1.73135771WSep 30 · 17:25D. Rehotun1.8311117113A. Peretiatko1.83591151WSep 30 · 15:55D. Rehotun2.0011116113P. Ishchyk1.73651151WSep 30 · 13:55D. Rehotun1.44111111113M. Skliar2.63136881WSep 29 · 19:25D. Rehotun3.751191111113V. Kobets1.2513118562LSep 29 · 17:55D. Rehotun1.8311871192P. Ishchyk1.83411118113WSep 29 · 16:25D. Rehotun1.4011411113M. Skliar2.75911291WSep 29 · 14:55D. Rehotun2.20116134113A. Peretiatko1.61811111192LSep 29 · 13:25D. Rehotun1.5761211872D. Us2.251110611113
D. Derevynskyi10
LOct 6 · 22:35O. Melashenko2.3881111113D. Derevynskyi1.53119661WOct 3 · 03:35K. Hrynenko2.2531161252D. Derevynskyi1.571181110113LOct 3 · 02:35O. Gomilko1.50101112113D. Derevynskyi2.501231071WOct 3 · 01:05M. Marchuk2.50117111372D. Derevynskyi1.50511715113LOct 2 · 23:05V. Lobas1.441110118113D. Derevynskyi2.6341261172WOct 2 · 21:05Y. Krol2.6351111111D. Derevynskyi1.4411138133LOct 1 · 03:05D. Derevynskyi1.6711961172T. Ponomarenko2.10411119113WOct 1 · 01:35D. Derevynskyi1.677131211113O. Naida2.10111510752WOct 1 · 00:05D. Derevynskyi1.8311911113S. Abalmaz1.83911871LSep 30 · 22:35D. Derevynskyi1.801111100R. Gnoevoy1.911313123
Upcoming Matches
D. Rehotun
D. Derevynskyi
Oct 7 · 00:35D. Derevynskyi1.25Y. Stepanchuk3.75—Oct 7 · 02:35D. Derevynskyi1.61K. Hrynenko2.20—Oct 7 · 04:05D. Derevynskyi1.33S. Pitsyk3.25—Oct 7 · 22:25D. Derevynskyi1.73R. Gnoevoy2.00—Oct 7 · 23:55D. Derevynskyi1.61K. Hrynenko2.20—Oct 8 · 00:55D. Derevynskyi1.80S. Abalmaz1.91—Oct 8 · 01:55D. Derevynskyi1.83V. Khamurda1.83—Oct 8 · 03:55D. Derevynskyi1.67T. Ponomarenko2.10—
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