TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Melashenko vs Kostiantyn Hrynenko 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911911611––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:47 and never touched: 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeKostiantyn Hrynenko to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Melashenko above · Kostiantyn Hrynenko below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 57 set 3, 6-11 · our read held Kostiantyn Hrynenko at 57.0%
57 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Melashenko 37–42 Kostiantyn Hrynenko Oleksandr Melashenko has won 37 of their 79 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:4757.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Hrynenko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
37-42 in 79
Hrynenko
Correct
gap of 5 in 79, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melashenko 1529 vs Hrynenko 1642
Hrynenko
Correct
both rated, 113 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melashenko 40% vs Hrynenko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melashenko 50% vs Hrynenko 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Melashenko -2 · Hrynenko -3
Hrynenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Hrynenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hrynenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelashenko 2.10 / Hrynenko 1.666
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Hrynenko)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13250315
Melashenko2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 04)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog37% won 102 of 274
Down 0–1, comes back18% 29 of 165
Down 0–2, comes back6% 6 of 98
Hrynenko1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 04)
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite65% won 73 of 112
Up 2–0, closes it96% 45 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it89% 58 of 65
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMelashenko6wins
AwayHrynenko4wins
Melashenko leads 6–4.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelashenko85.7%6 of 7
AwayHrynenko100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melashenko7Hrynenko3n = 10Melashenko took 7 of 10
S2Melashenko6Hrynenko4n = 10Melashenko took 6 of 10
S3Melashenko3Hrynenko7n = 10Hrynenko took 7 of 10
S4Melashenko4Hrynenko2n = 6Melashenko took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMelashenkoHrynenkoM − HBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match34.132.5+1.6per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelashenkoHrynenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime432 / 862 vs 426 / 89750.1%47.5%432 / 862 vs 426 / 897Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.036.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HrynenkoMelashenko 2.10/Hrynenko 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57%
Hrynenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Hrynenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 6 · 21:05O. Melashenko249960K. Hrynenko331111113
WOct 4 · 00:35O. Melashenko4411118143K. Hrynenko357511121
WSep 25 · 23:35O. Melashenko4713117163K. Hrynenko4311711141
WSep 20 · 00:35O. Melashenko341211113K. Hrynenko1910360
WSep 15 · 04:05O. Melashenko331111113K. Hrynenko175570
LSep 13 · 00:35O. Melashenko28551171K. Hrynenko4011117113
LSep 12 · 01:05O. Melashenko25118241K. Hrynenko3961111113
WSep 9 · 13:55O. Melashenko4113116113K. Hrynenko331151161
LSep 6 · 00:35O. Melashenko195590K. Hrynenko331111113
WSep 4 · 23:35O. Melashenko46111113113K. Hrynenko33471571
O. Melashenko10
LOct 4 · 03:35O. Melashenko1.831156121O. Gomilko1.8381111143LOct 4 · 01:35V. Lobas1.36151411113O. Melashenko3.001316621WOct 4 · 00:35O. Melashenko2.0011118143K. Hrynenko1.737511121WOct 3 · 23:35V. Kobets2.10991161O. Melashenko1.6711119113LOct 3 · 22:05O. Melashenko4.001185121Y. Krol1.2261111143LOct 2 · 03:55O. Melashenko2.7561180R. Gnoevoy1.401113113LOct 2 · 01:55V. Panasenko1.331111123O. Melashenko3.2546100WOct 2 · 00:55O. Melashenko2.6311129133S. Abalmaz1.4481011111WOct 1 · 23:55V. Khamurda1.73891151O. Melashenko2.0011116113WOct 1 · 22:25O. Melashenko1.6761111113O. Naida2.10115641
K. Hrynenko10
LOct 4 · 04:05Y. Krol1.731111113K. Hrynenko2.007870LOct 4 · 02:35K. Hrynenko2.1088100O. Gomilko1.671111123LOct 4 · 00:35O. Melashenko2.0011118143K. Hrynenko1.737511121WOct 3 · 22:35V. Lobas1.53114951K. Hrynenko2.3861111113WOct 3 · 21:35V. Kobets4.0091070K. Hrynenko1.221112113LOct 3 · 03:35K. Hrynenko2.2531161252D. Derevynskyi1.571181110113WOct 3 · 01:35Y. Krol1.738870K. Hrynenko2.001111113WOct 3 · 00:35K. Hrynenko2.00511711113O. Gomilko1.7311911472WOct 2 · 23:35M. Marchuk2.10118681K. Hrynenko1.6751111113WOct 2 · 22:05K. Hrynenko2.501111113V. Lobas1.507990
Upcoming Matches
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