TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Melashenko vs Roman Gnoevoy 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
6111113811––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:47 and never touched: 67.5% is still 67.5%
Graded at full timeRoman Gnoevoy to win
67.5%
67.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Melashenko above · Roman Gnoevoy below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 60 set 3, 8-11 · our read held Roman Gnoevoy at 67.5%
60 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Melashenko 11–26 Roman Gnoevoy Oleksandr Melashenko has won 11 of their 37 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:4767.5%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 3.9pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Gnoevoy
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
11-26 in 37
Gnoevoy
Correct
gap of 15 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melashenko 1555 vs Gnoevoy 1553
Melashenko
Wrong
both rated, 2 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melashenko 80% vs Gnoevoy 40%
Melashenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melashenko 50% vs Gnoevoy 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Melashenko -1 · Gnoevoy +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% · Clear lean (leans Gnoevoy) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gnoevoy form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelashenko 2.75 / Gnoevoy 1.40
Signal prob.33% / 68%
Edge (Gnoevoy)-3.9pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13223563
Melashenko2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog38% won 104 of 277
Down 0–1, comes back19% 32 of 168
Down 0–2, comes back6% 6 of 98
Gnoevoy1.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 75 of 123
Up 2–0, closes it95% 39 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it73% 49 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMelashenko4wins
AwayGnoevoy6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderGnoevoy leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelashenko75%3 of 4
AwayGnoevoy83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melashenko4Gnoevoy6n = 10Gnoevoy took 6 of 10
S2Melashenko5Gnoevoy5n = 10split evenly
S3Melashenko5Gnoevoy5n = 10split evenly
S4Melashenko1Gnoevoy6n = 7Gnoevoy took 6 of 7
S5Melashenko2Gnoevoy1n = 3Melashenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMelashenkoGnoevoyM − GBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.239.4−3.2per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelashenkoGnoevoyBasisWin rate · lifetime434 / 865 vs 416 / 83250.2%50%434 / 865 vs 416 / 832Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
GnoevoyMelashenko 2.75/Gnoevoy 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.5%
Gnoevoy · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Gnoevoy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 1 · 02:35O. Melashenko41211115123R. Gnoevoy49119811102
LAug 7 · 03:55O. Melashenko48211149122R. Gnoevoy541161211143
LJul 26 · 21:25O. Melashenko227780R. Gnoevoy331111113
LJul 18 · 03:35O. Melashenko214980R. Gnoevoy331111113
WJul 8 · 17:25O. Melashenko461111103113R. Gnoevoy4485121182
WJul 8 · 02:25O. Melashenko331111113R. Gnoevoy259970
LJun 7 · 17:55O. Melashenko3810111161R. Gnoevoy4112135113
LJun 2 · 22:55O. Melashenko3971111101R. Gnoevoy4111135123
LJun 1 · 21:25O. Melashenko371151381R. Gnoevoy4691115113
WMay 30 · 01:05O. Melashenko3711114113R. Gnoevoy28621191
O. Melashenko10
LOct 2 · 01:55V. Panasenko1.331111123O. Melashenko3.2546100WOct 2 · 00:55O. Melashenko2.6311129133S. Abalmaz1.4481011111WOct 1 · 23:55V. Khamurda1.73891151O. Melashenko2.0011116113WOct 1 · 22:25O. Melashenko1.6761111113O. Naida2.10115641WOct 1 · 03:35O. Naida1.911251571O. Melashenko1.80141113113WOct 1 · 02:35R. Gnoevoy1.33119811102O. Melashenko3.25211115123LOct 1 · 01:05T. Ponomarenko1.501111113O. Melashenko2.506550LSep 30 · 23:05S. Abalmaz1.501111113O. Melashenko2.509370LSep 30 · 21:05D. Derevynskyi1.57111110113O. Melashenko2.25691261LSep 27 · 04:05O. Melashenko3.75101190Y. Krol1.251213113
R. Gnoevoy10
WOct 2 · 02:55S. Abalmaz1.73101160R. Gnoevoy2.001213113LOct 2 · 01:25V. Khamurda1.671111113R. Gnoevoy2.109740LOct 1 · 23:25O. Naida2.001111113R. Gnoevoy1.735580LOct 1 · 21:25V. Panasenko1.4412912113R. Gnoevoy2.6310111031WOct 1 · 04:05S. Abalmaz1.67311871R. Gnoevoy2.1011511113LOct 1 · 02:35R. Gnoevoy1.33119811102O. Melashenko3.25211115123WOct 1 · 00:35O. Naida2.10136581R. Gnoevoy1.67111111113WSep 30 · 22:35D. Derevynskyi1.801111100R. Gnoevoy1.911313123LSep 30 · 21:35T. Ponomarenko2.6311135113R. Gnoevoy1.448111181LSep 29 · 03:55R. Gnoevoy2.5010630V. Panasenko1.501211113
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