TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Spartak Abalmaz vs Roman Gnoevoy 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
10121113611––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:47 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSpartak Abalmaz to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSpartak Abalmaz above · Roman Gnoevoy below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 63 set 3, 6-11 · our read held Spartak Abalmaz at 54.0%
63 points played in total.
H2H Spartak Abalmaz 60–50 Roman Gnoevoy Roman Gnoevoy has won 50 of their 110 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:4754.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Abalmaz
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
60-50 in 110
Abalmaz
Wrong
gap of 10 in 110, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Abalmaz 1564 vs Gnoevoy 1538
Abalmaz
Wrong
both rated, 26 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Abalmaz 40% vs Gnoevoy 20%
Abalmaz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Abalmaz 40% vs Gnoevoy 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Abalmaz -1 · Gnoevoy -3
Gnoevoy
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Abalmaz) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gnoevoy form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAbalmaz 1.727 / Gnoevoy 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Abalmaz)-3.9pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13223736
Abalmaz1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 159 of 277
Up 2–0, closes it96% 76 of 79
Up 1–0, closes it74% 116 of 156
Gnoevoy2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog48% won 89 of 186
Down 0–1, comes back26% 25 of 96
Down 0–2, comes back12% 7 of 58
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAbalmaz6wins
AwayGnoevoy4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderAbalmaz leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAbalmaz57.1%4 of 7
AwayGnoevoy33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Abalmaz7Gnoevoy3n = 10Abalmaz took 7 of 10
S2Abalmaz7Gnoevoy3n = 10Abalmaz took 7 of 10
S3Abalmaz5Gnoevoy5n = 10split evenly
S4Abalmaz2Gnoevoy5n = 7Gnoevoy took 5 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricAbalmazGnoevoyA − GBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match36.834.9+1.9per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAbalmazGnoevoyBasisWin rate · lifetime422 / 835 vs 415 / 83150.5%49.9%422 / 835 vs 415 / 831Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
AbalmazAbalmaz 1.73/Gnoevoy 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Abalmaz · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Gnoevoy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 29 · 01:55S. Abalmaz30118561R. Gnoevoy3851111113
WSep 28 · 00:25S. Abalmaz43111110113R. Gnoevoy37881291
LSep 25 · 00:55S. Abalmaz351194111R. Gnoevoy4271111133
LSep 23 · 02:35S. Abalmaz36118981R. Gnoevoy4181111113
WSep 22 · 00:55S. Abalmaz341112113R. Gnoevoy2491050
WSep 17 · 21:25S. Abalmaz50911145113R. Gnoevoy50119121172
WSep 16 · 00:35S. Abalmaz331111113R. Gnoevoy268990
LSep 15 · 02:55S. Abalmaz34711881R. Gnoevoy4211911113
WSep 11 · 00:55S. Abalmaz331111113R. Gnoevoy199460
WSep 8 · 20:25S. Abalmaz4071111113R. Gnoevoy30117751
S. Abalmaz10
LOct 2 · 00:55O. Melashenko2.6311129133S. Abalmaz1.4481011111WOct 1 · 22:55V. Panasenko1.83811761S. Abalmaz1.8311811113WOct 1 · 21:55V. Khamurda2.2013840S. Abalmaz1.611511113LOct 1 · 04:05S. Abalmaz1.67311871R. Gnoevoy2.1011511113LOct 1 · 02:05T. Ponomarenko2.5011411113S. Abalmaz1.50911331LOct 1 · 00:05D. Derevynskyi1.8311911113S. Abalmaz1.83911871WSep 30 · 23:05S. Abalmaz1.501111113O. Melashenko2.509370WSep 30 · 22:05O. Naida2.63135961S. Abalmaz1.44111111113LSep 29 · 03:25S. Abalmaz1.611031271V. Khamurda2.20121110113LSep 29 · 01:55S. Abalmaz1.67118561R. Gnoevoy2.1051111113
R. Gnoevoy10
LOct 2 · 01:25V. Khamurda1.671111113R. Gnoevoy2.109740LOct 1 · 23:25O. Naida2.001111113R. Gnoevoy1.735580LOct 1 · 21:25V. Panasenko1.4412912113R. Gnoevoy2.6310111031WOct 1 · 04:05S. Abalmaz1.67311871R. Gnoevoy2.1011511113LOct 1 · 02:35R. Gnoevoy1.33119811102O. Melashenko3.25211115123WOct 1 · 00:35O. Naida2.10136581R. Gnoevoy1.67111111113WSep 30 · 22:35D. Derevynskyi1.801111100R. Gnoevoy1.911313123LSep 30 · 21:35T. Ponomarenko2.6311135113R. Gnoevoy1.448111181LSep 29 · 03:55R. Gnoevoy2.5010630V. Panasenko1.501211113WSep 29 · 01:55S. Abalmaz1.67118561R. Gnoevoy2.1051111113
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