TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Volodymyr Panasenko vs Spartak Abalmaz 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811118711611––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:54 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSpartak Abalmaz to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingVolodymyr Panasenko above · Spartak Abalmaz below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 73 set 4, 6-11 · our read held Spartak Abalmaz at 54.0%
73 points played in total.
H2H Volodymyr Panasenko 4–6 Spartak Abalmaz Volodymyr Panasenko has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:5454.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Abalmaz
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-6 in 10
Abalmaz
Correct
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Panasenko 1575 vs Abalmaz 1564
Panasenko
Wrong
both rated, 11 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Panasenko 100% vs Abalmaz 40%
Panasenko
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Panasenko 80% vs Abalmaz 40%
Panasenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Panasenko +5 · Abalmaz +1
Panasenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Abalmaz) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Abalmaz form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPanasenko 1.833 / Abalmaz 1.833
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Abalmaz)-0.6pp
Setka Cup · #13223856
Panasenko1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Abalmaz1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePanasenko4wins
AwayAbalmaz6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderAbalmaz leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePanasenko75%3 of 4
AwayAbalmaz83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Panasenko4Abalmaz6n = 10Abalmaz took 6 of 10
S2Panasenko4Abalmaz6n = 10Abalmaz took 6 of 10
S3Panasenko7Abalmaz3n = 10Panasenko took 7 of 10
S4Panasenko4Abalmaz3n = 7Panasenko took 4 of 7
S5Panasenko1Abalmaz3n = 4Abalmaz took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPanasenkoAbalmazP − ABasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.238.2+2.0per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPanasenkoAbalmazBasisWin rate · lifetime39 / 74 vs 421 / 83652.7%50.4%39 / 74 vs 421 / 836Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.238.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
AbalmazPanasenko 1.83/Abalmaz 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Abalmaz · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Abalmaz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 28 · 21:25V. Panasenko2512850S. Abalmaz361411113
WSep 25 · 02:55V. Panasenko331111113S. Abalmaz163490
WSep 2 · 02:25V. Panasenko331111113S. Abalmaz167180
WAug 26 · 02:35V. Panasenko51991111113S. Abalmaz4311118672
LAug 20 · 22:55V. Panasenko3510411101S. Abalmaz4312118123
WAug 19 · 01:05V. Panasenko4111711123S. Abalmaz369116101
LJul 31 · 02:25V. Panasenko60991411172S. Abalmaz611111128193
LJul 23 · 22:55V. Panasenko49111171282S. Abalmaz49671114113
LJul 22 · 02:05V. Panasenko311051151S. Abalmaz3812114113
LJul 15 · 17:55V. Panasenko4481181162S. Abalmaz44116115113
V. Panasenko10
WOct 1 · 21:25V. Panasenko1.4412912113R. Gnoevoy2.6310111031WSep 29 · 03:55R. Gnoevoy2.5010630V. Panasenko1.501211113WSep 29 · 02:55S. Skachenko2.63311541V. Panasenko1.4411911113WSep 29 · 01:25V. Khamurda2.5071380V. Panasenko1.501115113WSep 28 · 23:25O. Naida2.386340V. Panasenko1.531111113LSep 28 · 21:25S. Abalmaz2.201411113V. Panasenko1.6112850LSep 25 · 03:55R. Gnoevoy2.631111101133V. Panasenko1.44981211112WSep 25 · 02:55S. Abalmaz2.003490V. Panasenko1.731111113WSep 25 · 01:25T. Ponomarenko3.252750V. Panasenko1.331111113WSep 24 · 23:25O. Naida2.50101161162V. Panasenko1.50128119113
S. Abalmaz10
WOct 1 · 21:55V. Khamurda2.2013840S. Abalmaz1.611511113LOct 1 · 04:05S. Abalmaz1.67311871R. Gnoevoy2.1011511113LOct 1 · 02:05T. Ponomarenko2.5011411113S. Abalmaz1.50911331LOct 1 · 00:05D. Derevynskyi1.8311911113S. Abalmaz1.83911871WSep 30 · 23:05S. Abalmaz1.501111113O. Melashenko2.509370WSep 30 · 22:05O. Naida2.63135961S. Abalmaz1.44111111113LSep 29 · 03:25S. Abalmaz1.611031271V. Khamurda2.20121110113LSep 29 · 01:55S. Abalmaz1.67118561R. Gnoevoy2.1051111113WSep 28 · 21:25S. Abalmaz2.201411113V. Panasenko1.6112850LSep 25 · 02:55S. Abalmaz2.003490V. Panasenko1.731111113
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