TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Naida vs Oleksandr Melashenko 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
12145111513711––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:00 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Melashenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Oleksandr Melashenko @ 1.80 · Won
How it is goingOleksandr Naida above · Oleksandr Melashenko below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 15-13
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 88 set 4, 7-11 · our read held Oleksandr Melashenko at 54.0%
88 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Naida 20–19 Oleksandr Melashenko Oleksandr Melashenko has won 19 of their 39 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 03:0054.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Melashenko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
20-19 in 39
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Naida 1494 vs Melashenko 1523
Melashenko
Correct
both rated, 29 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Naida 20% vs Melashenko 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Naida 30% vs Melashenko 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Naida -4 · Melashenko +1
Naida
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Melashenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melashenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNaida 1.909 / Melashenko 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Melashenko)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13219437
Naida1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 80 of 181
Down 0–1, comes back27% 30 of 112
Down 0–2, comes back9% 5 of 55
Melashenko1.80
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite64% won 84 of 131
Up 2–0, closes it97% 37 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it78% 55 of 71
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNaida2wins
AwayMelashenko8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMelashenko leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNaida50%2 of 4
AwayMelashenko100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Naida4Melashenko6n = 10Melashenko took 6 of 10
S2Naida4Melashenko6n = 10Melashenko took 6 of 10
S3Naida3Melashenko7n = 10Melashenko took 7 of 10
S4Naida2Melashenko2n = 4split evenly
S5Naida0Melashenko3n = 3Melashenko took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricNaidaMelashenkoN − MBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match32.235.7−3.5per matchSweeps24−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNaidaMelashenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime477 / 933 vs 430 / 86051.1%50%477 / 933 vs 430 / 860Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MelashenkoNaida 1.91/Melashenko 1.80
Hit
What we said
54%
Melashenko · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Oleksandr Melashenko @ 1.80 · Won
What happened
1–3
Melashenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 7 · 16:25O. Naida371511113O. Melashenko2513570
LAug 20 · 22:25O. Naida176470O. Melashenko331111113
WAug 6 · 22:25O. Naida371115113O. Melashenko2651380
LJul 27 · 03:55O. Naida31119651O. Melashenko4071111113
LJul 14 · 00:55O. Naida2678110O. Melashenko351111133
LJul 8 · 15:55O. Naida4411119582O. Melashenko39421111113
LJul 7 · 21:55O. Naida186660O. Melashenko331111113
LJun 24 · 20:25O. Naida248880O. Melashenko331111113
LJun 23 · 03:25O. Naida4881191372O. Melashenko481141111113
LJun 7 · 16:25O. Naida4048111162O. Melashenko45111139113
O. Naida10
LOct 1 · 01:35D. Derevynskyi1.677131211113O. Naida2.10111510752LOct 1 · 00:35O. Naida2.10136581R. Gnoevoy1.67111111113LSep 30 · 23:35T. Ponomarenko2.50121011113O. Naida1.501012791LSep 30 · 22:05O. Naida2.63135961S. Abalmaz1.44111111113WSep 29 · 04:25O. Naida2.38711811113S. Skachenko1.5311311592LSep 29 · 02:25V. Khamurda1.801111113O. Naida1.917960WSep 29 · 00:25S. Abalmaz1.4446111172O. Naida2.63111156113LSep 28 · 23:25O. Naida2.386340V. Panasenko1.531111113WSep 28 · 22:25R. Gnoevoy1.8031141112O. Naida1.91114118113LSep 28 · 03:55O. Naida2.205111181S. Skachenko1.6111213113
O. Melashenko10
WOct 1 · 02:35R. Gnoevoy1.33119811102O. Melashenko3.25211115123LOct 1 · 01:05T. Ponomarenko1.501111113O. Melashenko2.506550LSep 30 · 23:05S. Abalmaz1.501111113O. Melashenko2.509370LSep 30 · 21:05D. Derevynskyi1.57111110113O. Melashenko2.25691261LSep 27 · 04:05O. Melashenko3.75101190Y. Krol1.251213113LSep 27 · 02:05O. Gomilko1.911311117123O. Melashenko1.80151911102LSep 27 · 00:05V. Lobas1.36118811113O. Melashenko3.0041111382LSep 26 · 23:05O. Melashenko1.53121165142M. Marchuk2.381061111163WSep 26 · 22:05V. Kobets2.20111183102O. Melashenko1.61981111123LSep 26 · 03:35O. Melashenko2.201021151D. Derevynskyi1.6112117113
Upcoming Matches
O. Naida
O. Melashenko
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.