TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Rafal Stapor vs Artur Gromek 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119119811119––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:18 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRafal Stapor to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingRafal Stapor above · Artur Gromek below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 79 set 4, 11-9 · our read held Rafal Stapor at 54.0%
79 points played in total.
H2H Rafal Stapor 3–1 Artur Gromek Artur Gromek has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:1854.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Stapor
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Stapor
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stapor 1428 vs Gromek 1509
Gromek
Wrong
both rated, 81 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stapor 20% vs Gromek 60%
Gromek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stapor 50% vs Gromek 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stapor -3 · Gromek +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Stapor) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stapor form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStapor 1.80 / Gromek 1.909
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Stapor)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13248217
Stapor1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 372 of 591
Up 2–0, closes it96% 189 of 198
Up 1–0, closes it80% 288 of 361
Gromek1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog26% won 23 of 90
Down 0–1, comes back18% 10 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeStapor3wins
AwayGromek1wins
1 of 4 to a deciderStapor leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStapor100%3 of 3
AwayGromekn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stapor3Gromek1n = 4Stapor took 3 of 4
S2Stapor1Gromek3n = 4Gromek took 3 of 4
S3Stapor3Gromek1n = 4Stapor took 3 of 4
S4Stapor2Gromek2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home250%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricStaporGromekS − GBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match40.539.5+1.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStaporGromekBasisWin rate · lifetime727 / 1292 vs 55 / 16056.3%34.4%727 / 1292 vs 55 / 160Avg sets wonper match2.21.7per matchAvg pointsper match38.736.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StaporStapor 1.80/Gromek 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Stapor · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Stapor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WJun 23 · 06:50R. Stapor51138117123A. Gromek521111911102
WJun 23 · 04:25R. Stapor3611311113A. Gromek32911481
LJun 22 · 06:50R. Stapor33791161A. Gromek4011117113
WJun 22 · 04:25R. Stapor4211119113A. Gromek34861191
R. Stapor10
LOct 5 · 17:20R. Stapor1.8071191172J. Glanowski1.91115116113LOct 5 · 16:05K. Rudomina1.801051211113R. Stapor1.91121110392LOct 5 · 15:25R. Stapor1.7371060A. Linek2.001112113WOct 5 · 00:10R. Stapor1.83111211113J. Glanowski1.83714841LOct 4 · 23:20R. Stapor2.50119791K. Rudomina1.4571111113WOct 4 · 21:55R. Stapor1.721111113A. Linek2.008950WOct 4 · 21:30R. Stapor1.46111011113K. Sulkowski2.40712471WOct 4 · 20:30K. Rudomina1.84691151R. Stapor1.8711119113LOct 4 · 19:20R. Stapor1.8361111492J. Glanowski1.83119811113WOct 4 · 18:10K. Sulkowski2.909760R. Stapor1.371111113
A. Gromek10
WOct 5 · 17:40K. Rudomina2.001181091A. Gromek1.7341112113WOct 5 · 16:55A. Gromek1.801214113A. Linek1.91101260WOct 5 · 15:45A. Gromek1.6713711113M. Trela2.101111381LAug 5 · 00:35J. Glanowski2.00111011113A. Gromek1.73512731LAug 4 · 22:55M. Rutkowski1.30111299113A. Gromek3.40610111142LAug 4 · 22:10J. Kuzmicz1.20911911113A. Gromek3.8511411762LAug 4 · 21:25M. Kolek1.801111133A. Gromek1.9187110WAug 4 · 20:05M. Nowalinski1.369111181A. Gromek3.0011132113LAug 4 · 19:15A. Daniel1.301111113A. Gromek3.402560LAug 4 · 17:20K. Strowski1.3311812113A. Gromek3.255111071
Upcoming Matches
R. Stapor
A. Gromek
Oct 5 · 20:05A. Gromek1.67J. Glanowski2.10—Oct 5 · 21:25A. Gromek1.54A. Linek2.35—Oct 5 · 22:10A. Gromek—M. Trela——Oct 5 · 22:55A. Gromek1.67J. Glanowski2.10—Oct 6 · 00:35A. Gromek3.40K. Staszczyk1.30—Oct 6 · 15:25A. Gromek—M. Minda——Oct 6 · 16:55A. Gromek—L. Pietraszko——Oct 6 · 18:05A. Gromek—D. Kosmal——Oct 6 · 19:15A. Gromek—P. Blocho——Oct 6 · 20:30A. Gromek—A. Linek——
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