TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Rafal Stapor vs Adam Linek 0-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
7111012611––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:18 and never touched: 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeRafal Stapor to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRafal Stapor above · Adam Linek below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 57 set 3, 6-11 · our read held Rafal Stapor at 54.1%
57 points played in total.
H2H Rafal Stapor 10–6 Adam Linek Adam Linek has won 6 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:1854.1%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.8pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Stapor
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
10-6 in 16
Stapor
Wrong
gap of 4 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stapor 1463 vs Linek 1434
Stapor
Wrong
both rated, 29 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stapor 80% vs Linek 40%
Stapor
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stapor 80% vs Linek 40%
Stapor
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stapor +1 · Linek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Stapor) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stapor form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStapor 1.727 / Linek 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Stapor)-3.8pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13246227
Stapor1.73
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite63% won 372 of 591
Up 2–0, closes it96% 189 of 198
Up 1–0, closes it80% 288 of 361
Linek2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog40% won 135 of 336
Down 0–1, comes back28% 53 of 190
Down 0–2, comes back8% 7 of 87
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStapor7wins
AwayLinek3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderStapor leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStapor87.5%7 of 8
AwayLinekn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stapor8Linek2n = 10Stapor took 8 of 10
S2Stapor6Linek4n = 10Stapor took 6 of 10
S3Stapor8Linek2n = 10Stapor took 8 of 10
S4Stapor3Linek3n = 6split evenly
S5Stapor2Linek3n = 5Linek took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricStaporLinekS − LBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match41.235.7+5.5per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStaporLinekBasisWin rate · lifetime727 / 1289 vs 768 / 164656.4%46.7%727 / 1289 vs 768 / 1646Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.737.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StaporStapor 1.73/Linek 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Stapor · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Linek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 4 · 21:55R. Stapor331111113A. Linek228950
WOct 4 · 16:55R. Stapor331111113A. Linek183780
LSep 13 · 23:45R. Stapor4048111162A. Linek47111159113
LSep 10 · 04:20R. Stapor4971571192A. Linek521113116113
WSep 8 · 04:55R. Stapor481151110113A. Linek4581171272
WAug 23 · 22:35R. Stapor551110176113A. Linek56912151192
LAug 6 · 07:40R. Stapor4711165692A. Linek525141111113
WJul 30 · 03:00R. Stapor4011711113A. Linek32611691
WJul 29 · 11:20R. Stapor341111123A. Linek2248100
WJul 29 · 03:20R. Stapor331111113A. Linek113620
R. Stapor10
LOct 5 · 16:05K. Rudomina1.801051211113R. Stapor1.91121110392WOct 5 · 00:10R. Stapor1.83111211113J. Glanowski1.83714841LOct 4 · 23:20R. Stapor2.50119791K. Rudomina1.4571111113WOct 4 · 21:55R. Stapor1.721111113A. Linek2.008950WOct 4 · 21:30R. Stapor1.46111011113K. Sulkowski2.40712471WOct 4 · 20:30K. Rudomina1.84691151R. Stapor1.8711119113LOct 4 · 19:20R. Stapor1.8361111492J. Glanowski1.83119811113WOct 4 · 18:10K. Sulkowski2.909760R. Stapor1.371111113WOct 4 · 16:55A. Linek1.823780R. Stapor1.881111113WOct 4 · 15:25M. Kukawka1.60118391R. Stapor2.1071111113
A. Linek10
LOct 5 · 16:55A. Gromek1.801214113A. Linek1.91101260WOct 5 · 00:35A. Linek1.511112113K. Sulkowski2.4071090LOct 4 · 23:45J. Glanowski1.881411810153A. Linek1.821291112132WOct 4 · 22:35A. Linek2.1841111123K. Rudomina1.621157101LOct 4 · 21:55R. Stapor1.721111113A. Linek2.008950LOct 4 · 20:05A. Linek1.80681661J. Glanowski1.90111114113WOct 4 · 18:30M. Kukawka1.7091111872A. Linek2.05118511113WOct 4 · 17:45K. Rudomina1.8814890A. Linek1.821611113LOct 4 · 16:55A. Linek1.823780R. Stapor1.881111113LOct 4 · 15:50A. Linek2.2161171242K. Sulkowski1.601141110113
Upcoming Matches
R. Stapor
A. Linek
Oct 5 · 18:05A. Linek1.50M. Trela2.50—Oct 5 · 19:15A. Linek1.73J. Glanowski2.00—Oct 5 · 20:30A. Linek2.25K. Rudomina1.57—Oct 5 · 21:25A. Linek—A. Gromek——Oct 5 · 21:50A. Linek3.25K. Staszczyk1.33—Oct 5 · 23:20A. Linek1.50M. Trela2.50—Oct 6 · 00:10A. Linek1.80J. Glanowski1.91—Oct 6 · 15:00A. Linek—P. Blocho——Oct 6 · 16:05A. Linek—M. Minda——Oct 6 · 17:40A. Linek—L. Pietraszko——
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