TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Rafal Stapor vs Jakub Glanowski 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1171214118114––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 00:06 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Glanowski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
78 points played in total.
Set by set
1171214118114––
H2H Rafal Stapor 12–15 Jakub Glanowski Rafal Stapor has won 12 of their 27 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Glanowski beat Stapor 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 00:0654.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.83
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.83 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Glanowski
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
12-15 in 27
Glanowski
Wrong
gap of 3 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stapor 1450 vs Glanowski 1483
Glanowski
Wrong
both rated, 33 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stapor 60% vs Glanowski 80%
Glanowski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stapor 70% vs Glanowski 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stapor -1 · Glanowski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Glanowski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Glanowski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStapor 1.83 / Glanowski 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Glanowski)-0.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13239141
Stapor1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Glanowski1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStapor5wins
AwayGlanowski5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStapor75%3 of 4
AwayGlanowski66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stapor4Glanowski6n = 10Glanowski took 6 of 10
S2Stapor6Glanowski4n = 10Stapor took 6 of 10
S3Stapor8Glanowski2n = 10Stapor took 8 of 10
S4Stapor3Glanowski5n = 8Glanowski took 5 of 8
S5Stapor1Glanowski2n = 3Glanowski took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricStaporGlanowskiS − GBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.636.7+0.9per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStaporGlanowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime726 / 1288 vs 890 / 177856.4%50.1%726 / 1288 vs 890 / 1778Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
GlanowskiStapor 1.83/Glanowski 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Glanowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Stapor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 4 · 19:20R. Stapor4161111492J. Glanowski50119811113
WSep 16 · 04:10R. Stapor4291111113J. Glanowski33118861
WSep 15 · 04:55R. Stapor331111113J. Glanowski168350
LSep 13 · 17:20R. Stapor329101121J. Glanowski4311129113
WSep 11 · 06:05R. Stapor4061112113J. Glanowski371181081
WSep 8 · 05:40R. Stapor331111113J. Glanowski228950
LSep 2 · 11:25R. Stapor31711671J. Glanowski3811511113
WAug 23 · 06:25R. Stapor49118811113J. Glanowski4271111492
LAug 20 · 13:05R. Stapor44111111742J. Glanowski48713611113
LAug 20 · 03:20R. Stapor31941171J. Glanowski3811115113
R. Stapor10
LOct 4 · 23:20R. Stapor2.50119791K. Rudomina1.4571111113WOct 4 · 21:55R. Stapor1.721111113A. Linek2.008950WOct 4 · 21:30R. Stapor1.46111011113K. Sulkowski2.40712471WOct 4 · 20:30K. Rudomina1.84691151R. Stapor1.8711119113LOct 4 · 19:20R. Stapor1.8361111492J. Glanowski1.83119811113WOct 4 · 18:10K. Sulkowski2.909760R. Stapor1.371111113WOct 4 · 16:55A. Linek1.823780R. Stapor1.881111113WOct 4 · 15:25M. Kukawka1.60118391R. Stapor2.1071111113WOct 4 · 00:35R. Stapor1.341111113D. Poloszczanski3.004940LOct 3 · 23:45M. Trela2.70111011113R. Stapor1.41212771
J. Glanowski10
WOct 4 · 23:45J. Glanowski1.881411810153A. Linek1.821291112132WOct 4 · 22:55J. Glanowski1.4111116113K. Sulkowski2.60571171LOct 4 · 21:05J. Glanowski1.801182101K. Rudomina1.8581111123WOct 4 · 20:05A. Linek1.80681661J. Glanowski1.90111114113WOct 4 · 19:20R. Stapor1.8361111492J. Glanowski1.83119811113WOct 4 · 17:20M. Kukawka1.75911116122J. Glanowski1.95118811143LOct 4 · 16:35K. Sulkowski1.91178611113J. Glanowski1.80151111582LOct 4 · 15:00K. Rudomina1.7711611113J. Glanowski1.93511781WOct 3 · 00:10K. Sulkowski2.40681171J. Glanowski1.5011117113LOct 2 · 23:45J. Glanowski1.901111541J. Lamperski1.8013511113
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