TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Rafal Stapor vs Dawid Poloszczanski 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
114119114––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 00:31 and never touched: 75.6% is still 75.6%
Graded at full timeRafal Stapor to win
75.6%
75.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
50 points played in total.
Set by set
114119114––––
H2H Rafal Stapor 14–3 Dawid Poloszczanski Dawid Poloszczanski has won 3 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 00:3175.6%Our read74.6%to break even at 1.34
clears by 1.0pp74.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.34 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.34 (69%)
Stapor
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
14-3 in 17
Stapor
Correct
gap of 11 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stapor 1408 vs Poloszczanski 1247
Stapor
Correct
both rated, 161 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stapor 20% vs Poloszczanski 60%
Poloszczanski
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stapor 30% vs Poloszczanski 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stapor -1 · Poloszczanski +3
Poloszczanski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 76% · Strong (leans Stapor) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Poloszczanski form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStapor 1.34 / Poloszczanski 3.00
Signal prob.76% / 24%
Edge (Stapor)+1.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13239163
Stapor1.34
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 368 of 598
Up 2–0, closes it95% 186 of 195
Up 1–0, closes it80% 284 of 357
Poloszczanski3.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 118 of 313
Down 0–1, comes back22% 40 of 186
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 110
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStapor8wins
AwayPoloszczanski2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderStapor leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStapor100%5 of 5
AwayPoloszczanski40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stapor5Poloszczanski5n = 10split evenly
S2Stapor7Poloszczanski3n = 10Stapor took 7 of 10
S3Stapor7Poloszczanski3n = 10Stapor took 7 of 10
S4Stapor4Poloszczanski2n = 6Stapor took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStaporPoloszczanskiS − PBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.531.8+7.7per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStaporPoloszczanskiBasisWin rate · lifetime719 / 1279 vs 357 / 87856.2%40.7%719 / 1279 vs 357 / 878Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StaporStapor 1.34/Poloszczanski 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.6%
Stapor · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Stapor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 13 · 00:35R. Stapor561191411113D. Poloszczanski4561116572
LAug 23 · 23:45R. Stapor2385100D. Poloszczanski341111123
LAug 22 · 16:35R. Stapor398111191D. Poloszczanski4111136113
WJul 25 · 23:45R. Stapor331111113D. Poloszczanski194870
WJul 25 · 21:20R. Stapor45121111113D. Poloszczanski32144681
WJul 25 · 20:30R. Stapor48111187113D. Poloszczanski4166111172
WJun 20 · 10:05R. Stapor331111113D. Poloszczanski228590
WMay 31 · 14:40R. Stapor331111113D. Poloszczanski196850
WMay 24 · 04:30R. Stapor4481114113D. Poloszczanski401191281
WMay 16 · 02:20R. Stapor4181111113D. Poloszczanski25117521
R. Stapor10
LOct 3 · 23:45M. Trela2.70111011113R. Stapor1.41212771WOct 3 · 22:35R. Stapor1.75111012113A. Mugowski1.987121091LOct 3 · 21:55K. Sulkowski2.21118711113R. Stapor1.6071111682LOct 3 · 20:05S. Brud1.57511911113R. Stapor2.2511811672LOct 3 · 19:15M. Kolek1.33911711113R. Stapor3.2511911492LOct 3 · 17:20M. Kukawka1.801111113R. Stapor1.913780WOct 3 · 16:30B. Sulkowski1.73111191162R. Stapor2.00138111113LOct 3 · 15:00M. Makajew1.6181111123R. Stapor2.201194101WOct 2 · 07:40R. Stapor1.66121011113F. Krcil2.101012771LOct 2 · 06:30R. Stapor1.77413101382K. Kufel1.9511111211113
D. Poloszczanski10
WOct 3 · 22:55M. Trela1.91111081162D. Poloszczanski1.80612115113WOct 3 · 22:15A. Mugowski1.92611991D. Poloszczanski1.7911911113WOct 3 · 21:30K. Sulkowski1.9074110D. Poloszczanski1.811111133LOct 3 · 20:05D. Poloszczanski1.93871191M. Trela1.7711118113LOct 3 · 18:30A. Eliasz1.51791311113D. Poloszczanski2.40111111982LOct 3 · 17:45K. Sulkowski1.771211113D. Poloszczanski1.9310780LOct 3 · 16:55D. Poloszczanski2.35881161A. Mugowski1.5311116113LOct 3 · 15:50D. Poloszczanski2.05881161M. Skorski1.6611116113LOct 3 · 08:10D. Poloszczanski1.9051191182P. Krukar1.82119117113LOct 3 · 06:30M. Lukaszewski1.8391111133D. Poloszczanski1.871196111
Upcoming Matches
R. Stapor
Oct 4 · 15:25R. Stapor—M. Kukawka——Oct 4 · 16:55R. Stapor—A. Linek——Oct 4 · 18:10R. Stapor—K. Sulkowski——Oct 4 · 19:20R. Stapor—J. Glanowski——Oct 4 · 20:30R. Stapor—K. Rudomina——Oct 4 · 21:30R. Stapor—K. Sulkowski——Oct 4 · 21:55R. Stapor—A. Linek——Oct 4 · 23:20R. Stapor—K. Rudomina——Oct 5 · 00:10R. Stapor—J. Glanowski——
D. Poloszczanski
Nothing scheduled
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