TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Mateusz Trela vs Rafal Stapor 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1121012117117––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:40 and never touched: 68.3% is still 68.3%
Graded at full timeRafal Stapor to win
68.3%
68.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
71 points played in total.
Set by set
1121012117117––
H2H Mateusz Trela 12–23 Rafal Stapor Mateusz Trela has won 12 of their 35 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:4068.3%Our read70.9%to break even at 1.41
short by 2.6pp70.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.41 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.41 (66%)
Stapor
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
12-23 in 35
Stapor
Wrong
gap of 11 in 35, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Trela 1287 vs Stapor 1425
Stapor
Wrong
both rated, 137 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Trela 60% vs Stapor 20%
Trela
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Trela 50% vs Stapor 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Trela -1 · Stapor +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% · Clear lean (leans Stapor) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stapor form (20%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTrela 2.70 / Stapor 1.41
Signal prob.32% / 68%
Edge (Stapor)-2.6pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13239164
Trela2.70
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 138 of 321
Down 0–1, comes back27% 48 of 175
Down 0–2, comes back9% 8 of 85
Stapor1.41
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite62% won 368 of 598
Up 2–0, closes it95% 186 of 195
Up 1–0, closes it80% 284 of 357
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTrela3wins
AwayStapor7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderStapor leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTrela33.3%2 of 6
AwayStapor75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Trela6Stapor4n = 10Trela took 6 of 10
S2Trela5Stapor5n = 10split evenly
S3Trela5Stapor5n = 10split evenly
S4Trela2Stapor6n = 8Stapor took 6 of 8
S5Trela1Stapor3n = 4Stapor took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricTrelaStaporT − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match34.540.8−6.3per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTrelaStaporBasisWin rate · lifetime808 / 1650 vs 719 / 127849%56.3%808 / 1650 vs 719 / 1278Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StaporTrela 2.70/Stapor 1.41
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
68.3%
Stapor · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Trela won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 28 · 06:30M. Trela351311113R. Stapor2711970
LSep 11 · 03:25M. Trela4111712922R. Stapor529111011113
WAug 30 · 22:35M. Trela341211113R. Stapor2310850
LAug 10 · 03:50M. Trela311141061R. Stapor4391112113
LAug 9 · 08:05M. Trela3971141162R. Stapor50119118113
LJul 27 · 00:35M. Trela3131131132R. Stapor47115119113
LJul 26 · 22:10M. Trela26113481R. Stapor3961111113
LJul 9 · 13:30M. Trela33671371R. Stapor44111111113
LMay 27 · 06:15M. Trela29115851R. Stapor4181111113
WMay 27 · 03:45M. Trela46611117113R. Stapor4211751182
M. Trela10
LOct 4 · 00:10K. Sulkowski2.0011134113M. Trela1.716111191LOct 3 · 22:55M. Trela1.91111081162D. Poloszczanski1.80612115113WOct 3 · 21:05M. Trela2.201111143A. Mugowski1.5778120WOct 3 · 20:05D. Poloszczanski1.93871191M. Trela1.7711118113LOct 3 · 19:20A. Mugowski1.5811811113M. Trela2.25711551WOct 3 · 17:20A. Eliasz2.1069120M. Trela1.661111143LOct 3 · 16:35M. Skorski1.801111113M. Trela1.869860LOct 3 · 15:00K. Sulkowski1.83111187113M. Trela1.8788111182WOct 2 · 23:20K. Sulkowski1.854870M. Trela1.851111113LOct 2 · 22:35J. Lamperski1.45111211123M. Trela2.508142101
R. Stapor10
WOct 4 · 00:35R. Stapor1.341111113D. Poloszczanski3.004940WOct 3 · 22:35R. Stapor1.75111012113A. Mugowski1.987121091LOct 3 · 21:55K. Sulkowski2.21118711113R. Stapor1.6071111682LOct 3 · 20:05S. Brud1.57511911113R. Stapor2.2511811672LOct 3 · 19:15M. Kolek1.33911711113R. Stapor3.2511911492LOct 3 · 17:20M. Kukawka1.801111113R. Stapor1.913780WOct 3 · 16:30B. Sulkowski1.73111191162R. Stapor2.00138111113LOct 3 · 15:00M. Makajew1.6181111123R. Stapor2.201194101WOct 2 · 07:40R. Stapor1.66121011113F. Krcil2.101012771LOct 2 · 06:30R. Stapor1.77413101382K. Kufel1.9511111211113
Upcoming Matches
M. Trela
Nothing scheduled
R. Stapor
Oct 4 · 15:25R. Stapor—M. Kukawka——Oct 4 · 16:55R. Stapor—A. Linek——Oct 4 · 18:10R. Stapor—K. Sulkowski——Oct 4 · 19:20R. Stapor—J. Glanowski——Oct 4 · 20:30R. Stapor—K. Rudomina——Oct 4 · 21:30R. Stapor—K. Sulkowski——Oct 4 · 21:55R. Stapor—A. Linek——Oct 4 · 23:20R. Stapor—K. Rudomina——Oct 5 · 00:10R. Stapor—J. Glanowski——
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