TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Grzegorz Poliniewicz vs Michal Malachowski 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1191311911811811
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:25 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Poliniewicz to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
102 points played in total.
Set by set
1191311911811811
H2H Grzegorz Poliniewicz 19–19 Michal Malachowski Dead even across their 38 meetings.
Last 10 · 7–3Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:2554.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Poliniewicz
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
19-19 in 38
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Poliniewicz 1675 vs Malachowski 1657
Poliniewicz
Wrong
both rated, 18 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Poliniewicz 60% vs Malachowski 40%
Poliniewicz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Poliniewicz 40% vs Malachowski 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Poliniewicz -1 · Malachowski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Poliniewicz) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Malachowski form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPoliniewicz 1.80 / Malachowski 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Poliniewicz)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13246719
Poliniewicz1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite70% won 308 of 438
Up 2–0, closes it95% 140 of 147
Up 1–0, closes it83% 229 of 277
Malachowski1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 37 of 95
Down 0–1, comes back26% 15 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back17% 4 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePoliniewicz7wins
AwayMalachowski3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderPoliniewicz leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePoliniewicz60%3 of 5
AwayMalachowski20%1 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Poliniewicz5Malachowski5n = 10split evenly
S2Poliniewicz6Malachowski4n = 10Poliniewicz took 6 of 10
S3Poliniewicz8Malachowski2n = 10Poliniewicz took 8 of 10
S4Poliniewicz7Malachowski1n = 8Poliniewicz took 7 of 8
S5Poliniewicz1Malachowski3n = 4Malachowski took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPoliniewiczMalachowskiP − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.634.1+6.5per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPoliniewiczMalachowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime1219 / 2102 vs 398 / 76058%52.4%1219 / 2102 vs 398 / 760Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.037.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PoliniewiczPoliniewicz 1.80/Malachowski 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Poliniewicz · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Malachowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 25 · 11:20G. Poliniewicz48711811113M. Malachowski4311911482
LSep 25 · 03:00G. Poliniewicz44116101162M. Malachowski46611126113
WSep 24 · 14:35G. Poliniewicz3911611113M. Malachowski33811591
WSep 24 · 03:40G. Poliniewicz331111113M. Malachowski209650
LSep 14 · 13:25G. Poliniewicz45411121172M. Malachowski521113107113
WApr 10 · 11:30G. Poliniewicz4071111113M. Malachowski35117981
WApr 10 · 05:45G. Poliniewicz331111113M. Malachowski145360
WApr 9 · 13:10G. Poliniewicz3851111113M. Malachowski33117781
WApr 9 · 07:10G. Poliniewicz4291111113M. Malachowski25113651
LJan 29 · 10:05G. Poliniewicz44116116102M. Malachowski40211411123
G. Poliniewicz10
LOct 5 · 04:00G. Poliniewicz1.683690D. Kostal2.051111113WOct 5 · 03:00G. Poliniewicz1.8611511113K. Kapik1.85511981WOct 2 · 13:50P. Jendrzejewski1.901081171G. Poliniewicz1.8012118113LOct 2 · 13:00D. Kosmal2.1511117113G. Poliniewicz1.63881151WOct 2 · 12:10G. Poliniewicz2.051111133M. Rutkowski1.6588110LOct 2 · 10:30G. Poliniewicz1.80111101292K. Wisniewski1.914111210113LOct 2 · 09:45K. Kapik1.881161111113G. Poliniewicz1.8381181392WOct 2 · 08:30J. Kuzmicz1.7311581192G. Poliniewicz2.00911113113LOct 2 · 07:20G. Poliniewicz2.50781561K. Wloczko1.50111113113LOct 2 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.251111113G. Poliniewicz3.756980
M. Malachowski10
WOct 5 · 06:25D. Kostal2.1091140M. Malachowski1.661113113LOct 5 · 04:50M. Malachowski2.75681171M. Sklensky1.4011118113WOct 5 · 03:40M. Malachowski1.78114117113M. Olbrycht1.9161151182LSep 25 · 14:15M. Nowalinski1.8011811113M. Malachowski1.90911881WSep 25 · 13:25P. Klos1.499760M. Malachowski2.501111113LSep 25 · 11:20G. Poliniewicz1.77711811113M. Malachowski1.9311911482WSep 25 · 10:30D. Kosmal2.207740M. Malachowski1.621111113LSep 25 · 09:00K. Kapik1.951211123M. Malachowski1.75109100WSep 25 · 08:05K. Kapik1.78114951M. Malachowski1.9181111113WSep 25 · 07:15D. Kosmal2.259148141M. Malachowski1.58111211163
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