TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Michal Malachowski vs Michal Olbrycht 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
116411115711118
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:37 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Olbrycht to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
85 points played in total.
Set by set
116411115711118
H2H Michal Malachowski 3–3 Michal Olbrycht Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:3754.0%Our read52.4%to break even at 1.909
clears by 1.6pp52.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.909 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.78 (52%)
Malachowski
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Malachowski 1655 vs Olbrycht 1677
Olbrycht
Wrong
both rated, 22 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Malachowski 40% vs Olbrycht 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Malachowski 50% vs Olbrycht 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Malachowski -1 · Olbrycht -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Olbrycht) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Olbrycht form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMalachowski 1.78 / Olbrycht 1.909
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Olbrycht)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13246507
Malachowski1.78
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 10 days ago (Sep 25) · back after a break
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 112 of 192
Up 2–0, closes it96% 51 of 53
Up 1–0, closes it75% 83 of 111
Olbrycht1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Oct 01)
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog37% won 88 of 240
Down 0–1, comes back19% 27 of 144
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 77
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeMalachowski3wins
AwayOlbrycht3wins
1 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMalachowski100%3 of 3
AwayOlbrycht100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Malachowski3Olbrycht3n = 6split evenly
S2Malachowski5Olbrycht1n = 6Malachowski took 5 of 6
S3Malachowski2Olbrycht4n = 6Olbrycht took 4 of 6
S4Malachowski3Olbrycht2n = 5Malachowski took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricMalachowskiOlbrychtM − OBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match38.537.2+1.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMalachowskiOlbrychtBasisWin rate · lifetime412 / 788 vs 383 / 79852.3%48%412 / 788 vs 383 / 798Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
OlbrychtMalachowski 1.78/Olbrycht 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Olbrycht · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Malachowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WAug 9 · 00:10M. Malachowski4211116143M. Olbrycht399711121
LAug 8 · 19:15M. Malachowski387147101M. Olbrycht46111211123
LApr 30 · 00:15M. Malachowski33911491M. Olbrycht4011711113
LApr 29 · 21:50M. Malachowski4591191152M. Olbrycht45118114113
WApr 29 · 16:20M. Malachowski4011612113M. Olbrycht344111091
WAug 27 · 14:00M. Malachowski331111113M. Olbrycht196760
M. Malachowski10
LSep 25 · 14:15M. Nowalinski1.8011811113M. Malachowski1.90911881WSep 25 · 13:25P. Klos1.499760M. Malachowski2.501111113LSep 25 · 11:20G. Poliniewicz1.77711811113M. Malachowski1.9311911482WSep 25 · 10:30D. Kosmal2.207740M. Malachowski1.621111113LSep 25 · 09:00K. Kapik1.951211123M. Malachowski1.75109100WSep 25 · 08:05K. Kapik1.78114951M. Malachowski1.9181111113WSep 25 · 07:15D. Kosmal2.259148141M. Malachowski1.58111211163LSep 25 · 05:15K. Wisniewski2.2161111113M. Malachowski1.52117271LSep 25 · 04:25P. Klos1.521111113M. Malachowski2.356750WSep 25 · 03:00G. Poliniewicz1.75116101162M. Malachowski1.95611126113
M. Olbrycht10
WOct 5 · 04:25M. Olbrycht1.811212123K. Kapik1.901010100LOct 1 · 13:50M. Olbrycht1.937980K. Kapik1.781111113WOct 1 · 12:35M. Olbrycht1.9351111123G. Poliniewicz1.771168101LOct 1 · 11:20M. Olbrycht1.71810111182M. Kolek2.00111289113LOct 1 · 10:05J. Kwapis1.95118117113M. Olbrycht1.7541141192WOct 1 · 09:20M. Olbrycht1.8311812113P. Jendrzejewski1.877111041LOct 1 · 08:30M. Olbrycht2.0011681172K. Kapik1.70811118113LOct 1 · 06:50M. Olbrycht1.93971161P. Jendrzejewski1.7811119113LOct 1 · 05:35M. Olbrycht1.676560J. Kwapis2.101111113WOct 1 · 04:00M. Olbrycht2.0011118113K. Wisniewski1.70871161
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