TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Karl Zimmermann vs Marcelo Aguirre 0-3 · Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TT
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
411411411––––
Marcelo Aguirre
Away
1.30
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:58 and never touched: 72.3% is still 72.3%
Graded at full timeMarcelo Aguirre to win
72.3%
72.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingKarl Zimmermann above · Marcelo Aguirre below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 45 set 3, 4-11 · our read held Marcelo Aguirre at 72.3%
45 points played in total.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:5872.3%Our read76.9%to break even at 1.30
short by 4.6pp76.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.30 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Aguirre
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Zimmermann 1642 vs Aguirre 2122
Aguirre
Correct
both rated, 480 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zimmermann 40% vs Aguirre 80%
Aguirre
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zimmermann 60% vs Aguirre 80%
Aguirre
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zimmermann +1 · Aguirre +4
Aguirre
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% · Strong (leans Aguirre) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zimmermann form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZimmermann 3.40 / Aguirre 1.30
Signal prob.28% / 72%
Edge (Aguirre)-4.6pp (anti-value)
Challenger Series TT · #13245240
Zimmermann3.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
56%takes the first set · 5 of 9
As underdog26% won 7 of 27
Down 0–1, comes back11% 2 of 18
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 11
Aguirre1.30
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite89% won 16 of 18
Up 2–0, closes it100% 9 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands: it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricZimmermannAguirreBasisWin rate · lifetime39 / 69 vs 20 / 2256.5%90.9%39 / 69 vs 20 / 22Avg sets wonper match2.12.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.338.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
AguirreZimmermann 3.40/Aguirre 1.30
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.3%
Aguirre · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Aguirre won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together: one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
K. Zimmermann10
WOct 5 · 17:00K. Zimmermann1.1171111123O. Naplokov6.001176101LOct 5 · 15:00K. Zimmermann1.4651111872J. Loffler2.56117911113WOct 5 · 14:00K. Zimmermann1.131111113S. Happek5.502740LOct 5 · 10:30K. Zimmermann2.1071161172C. Besnier1.67119118113LOct 5 · 08:30K. Zimmermann2.751E. Mendes1.403WOct 5 · 06:30K. Zimmermann1.3311911113P. Koloidenko3.25511291WSep 22 · 10:30K. Zimmermann1.601111113M. Stefanidis2.155370LSep 22 · 09:15O. Kosolosky—1111113K. Zimmermann—7510WSep 22 · 07:00R. Turrini1.1149100K. Zimmermann6.001111123WSep 21 · 17:30S. Happek3.2555110K. Zimmermann1.331111133
M. Aguirre10
WOct 6 · 09:15M. Aguirre—141311133J. Loffler—16114111WOct 6 · 07:00M. Aguirre1.171111113P. Koloidenko4.505740WOct 5 · 15:30O. Naplokov10.00511591M. Aguirre1.0311911113WOct 5 · 13:30J. Loffler—6130M. Aguirre—1111113WOct 5 · 12:00S. Happek9.0010660M. Aguirre1.041211113LOct 5 · 09:00C. Besnier4.33118811113M. Aguirre1.2021111792WOct 5 · 07:00E. Mendes3.701111851M. Aguirre1.2513911113LJul 12 · 14:45M. Aguirre1.57111111472A. Kouraichi2.25136811113WJul 11 · 22:25M. Aguirre1.47611115113I. Diaw2.3811891172WJul 11 · 16:55N. Tauler3.75911611122M. Aguirre1.25118117143
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