TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Myroslav Loboda vs Volodymyr Kaidakov 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
7111191614511115
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 00:43 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVolodymyr Kaidakov to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMyroslav Loboda above · Volodymyr Kaidakov below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 16-14
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 100 set 5, 11-5 · our read held Volodymyr Kaidakov at 54.0%
100 points played in total.
H2H Myroslav Loboda 43–72 Volodymyr Kaidakov Myroslav Loboda has won 43 of their 115 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 00:4354.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kaidakov
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
43-72 in 115
Kaidakov
Wrong
gap of 29 in 115, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Loboda 1702 vs Kaidakov 1687
Loboda
Correct
both rated, 15 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Loboda 60% vs Kaidakov 40%
Loboda
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Loboda 40% vs Kaidakov 60%
Kaidakov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Loboda -1 · Kaidakov -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Kaidakov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kaidakov form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLoboda 1.909 / Kaidakov 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kaidakov)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13240347
Loboda1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 78 of 168
Down 0–1, comes back18% 14 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 41
Kaidakov1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite53% won 62 of 116
Up 2–0, closes it88% 28 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it73% 52 of 71
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLoboda6wins
AwayKaidakov4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLoboda leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLoboda100%5 of 5
AwayKaidakov80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Loboda5Kaidakov5n = 10split evenly
S2Loboda5Kaidakov5n = 10split evenly
S3Loboda7Kaidakov3n = 10Loboda took 7 of 10
S4Loboda3Kaidakov4n = 7Kaidakov took 4 of 7
S5Loboda2Kaidakov1n = 3Loboda took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricLobodaKaidakovL − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.636.1+1.5per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLobodaKaidakovBasisWin rate · lifetime495 / 956 vs 272 / 51651.8%52.7%495 / 956 vs 272 / 516Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.739.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KaidakovLoboda 1.91/Kaidakov 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kaidakov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Loboda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 5 · 00:45M. Loboda50711165113V. Kaidakov50119141152
LOct 2 · 05:05M. Loboda26271161V. Kaidakov3611113113
WOct 1 · 16:05M. Loboda361114113V. Kaidakov2661280
LOct 1 · 00:00M. Loboda4339111192V. Kaidakov46111149113
LAug 14 · 05:05M. Loboda388111091V. Kaidakov4011612113
WAug 13 · 17:05M. Loboda47118116113V. Kaidakov4591171172
WAug 13 · 00:30M. Loboda4211614113V. Kaidakov365111281
WAug 11 · 01:15M. Loboda3911116113V. Kaidakov29941151
LAug 9 · 20:45M. Loboda229760V. Kaidakov331111113
WAug 7 · 08:35M. Loboda331111113V. Kaidakov207580
M. Loboda10
LOct 4 · 23:15M. Loboda1.6716871182V. Slozka2.101411114113WOct 4 · 21:45M. Loboda1.611111113O. Pohonov2.208830WOct 4 · 20:15M. Loboda1.831111113O. Rodin1.834720LOct 2 · 10:35I. Hrekh2.1071111113M. Loboda1.67116971WOct 2 · 09:35M. Loboda1.83141111113V. Krokhmal1.83169591WOct 2 · 08:35M. Loboda1.7311119113V. Slozka2.00691161LOct 2 · 07:05M. Loboda1.80711111192A. Nazrin1.91111366113LOct 2 · 05:05M. Loboda1.91271161V. Kaidakov1.8011113113LOct 1 · 18:05Y. Vorsuliak2.631111113M. Loboda1.446530LOct 1 · 17:05M. Loboda1.61121111592D. Shchegelskyi2.20148411113
V. Kaidakov10
LOct 4 · 23:45V. Kaidakov1.8391151462O. Pohonov1.831141112113LOct 4 · 22:45R. Konkulovskyi2.2591111113V. Kaidakov1.57116981WOct 4 · 21:15V. Kaidakov1.8311115113V. Slozka1.83651191LOct 2 · 11:35V. Krokhmal1.911611123V. Kaidakov1.80148100WOct 2 · 10:05V. Kaidakov1.83911118133V. Slozka1.83114911112LOct 2 · 08:05A. Nazrin1.831111133V. Kaidakov1.8358110WOct 2 · 06:05I. Hrekh1.7391211111V. Kaidakov2.00111013133WOct 2 · 05:05M. Loboda1.91271161V. Kaidakov1.8011113113WOct 1 · 18:35A. Nazrin1.8091141152V. Kaidakov1.91118118113WOct 1 · 17:35V. Krokhmal2.104111171V. Kaidakov1.6711135113
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