TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Tomas Kindl vs Daniel Vitasek 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611811911––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:56 and never touched: 58.2% is still 58.2%
Graded at full timeTomas Kindl to win
58.2%
58.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Kindl above · Daniel Vitasek below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 56 set 3, 9-11 · our read held Tomas Kindl at 58.2%
56 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Kindl 10–6 Daniel Vitasek Daniel Vitasek has won 6 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:5658.2%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 1.8pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kindl
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
10-6 in 16
Kindl
Wrong
gap of 4 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kindl 1525 vs Vitasek 1504
Kindl
Wrong
both rated, 21 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kindl 40% vs Vitasek 20%
Kindl
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kindl 50% vs Vitasek 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kindl -1 · Vitasek -3
Vitasek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Kindl) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vitasek form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKindl 1.666 / Vitasek 2.10
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Kindl)-1.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13238569
Kindl1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 55 of 101
Up 2–0, closes it96% 22 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it71% 37 of 52
Vitasek2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog47% won 94 of 201
Down 0–1, comes back22% 23 of 107
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKindl6wins
AwayVitasek4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKindl leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKindl80%4 of 5
AwayVitasek60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kindl5Vitasek5n = 10split evenly
S2Kindl6Vitasek4n = 10Kindl took 6 of 10
S3Kindl6Vitasek4n = 10Kindl took 6 of 10
S4Kindl3Vitasek3n = 6split evenly
S5Kindl2Vitasek2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKindlVitasekK − VBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.840.2+1.6per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKindlVitasekBasisWin rate · lifetime226 / 457 vs 313 / 66349.5%47.2%226 / 457 vs 313 / 663Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match41.337.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KindlKindl 1.67/Vitasek 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.2%
Kindl · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Vitasek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 3 · 20:15T. Kindl236890D. Vitasek331111113
WSep 16 · 08:33T. Kindl441312193D. Vitasek381110170
LSep 16 · 08:10T. Kindl204790D. Vitasek331111113
WAug 28 · 20:10T. Kindl331111113D. Vitasek164480
WAug 11 · 17:40T. Kindl5915111111113D. Vitasek5117713682
LJul 13 · 18:45T. Kindl47911115112D. Vitasek51118811133
WJul 11 · 18:45T. Kindl53111579113D. Vitasek50613111192
WJun 25 · 20:45T. Kindl3911411133D. Vitasek378117111
WJun 25 · 19:40T. Kindl4881116133D. Vitasek3811214111
LJun 17 · 19:40T. Kindl52118131282D. Vitasek558111114113
T. Kindl10
LOct 3 · 20:44D. Vitasek2.101111123T. Kindl1.6798100LOct 3 · 18:45I. Heuman1.83111199113T. Kindl1.8388111132WOct 3 · 18:15K. Kleprlik1.401112111172T. Kindl2.75131494113LOct 1 · 12:34T. Kindl1.531141061L. Dzida2.3871112113WOct 1 · 12:10L. Dzida1.834890T. Kindl1.831111113LOct 1 · 11:10T. Kindl2.109940B. Mrowetz1.671111113WOct 1 · 09:40D. Velky Jr1.67911190T. Kindl2.101113213WSep 30 · 12:38T. Kindl1.9161112113L. Dzida1.801181061WSep 30 · 12:10T. Kindl2.001112133L. Dzida1.73610110LSep 30 · 10:40M. Moravec1.80119116113T. Kindl1.9191171192
D. Vitasek10
WOct 3 · 20:44D. Vitasek2.101111123T. Kindl1.6798100LOct 3 · 19:15D. Vitasek2.10612671K. Kleprlik1.67111011113LOct 3 · 17:45I. Heuman1.731111123D. Vitasek2.0066100LOct 2 · 21:25D. Stusek1.331111113D. Vitasek3.259670WOct 2 · 20:15K. Kleprlik1.7389111192D. Vitasek2.00111149113LOct 2 · 19:15D. Vitasek3.005590D. Stusek1.361111113WOct 2 · 17:45L. Slavik1.5311811111D. Vitasek2.3813117133WOct 1 · 21:10I. Heuman1.578960D. Vitasek2.251111113WOct 1 · 20:15P. Marsalek1.618490D. Vitasek2.201111113LOct 1 · 19:15D. Vitasek1.9111212512I. Heuman1.802111011113
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