TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Pavel Wawrosz vs Matyas Navedla 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911118611511––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:59 and never touched: 67.5% is still 67.5%
Graded at full timePavel Wawrosz to win
67.5%
67.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPavel Wawrosz above · Matyas Navedla below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 72 set 4, 5-11 · our read held Pavel Wawrosz at 67.5%
72 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Wawrosz 27–17 Matyas Navedla Matyas Navedla has won 17 of their 44 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:5967.5%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 3.9pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Wawrosz
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
27-17 in 44
Wawrosz
Wrong
gap of 10 in 44, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wawrosz 1811 vs Navedla 1727
Wawrosz
Wrong
both rated, 84 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wawrosz 80% vs Navedla 40%
Wawrosz
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wawrosz 70% vs Navedla 50%
Wawrosz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Wawrosz +3 · Navedla -1
Wawrosz
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% · Clear lean (leans Wawrosz) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWawrosz 1.40 / Navedla 2.75
Signal prob.68% / 33%
Edge (Wawrosz)-3.9pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13237762
Wawrosz1.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 02)
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite51% won 141 of 276
Up 2–0, closes it86% 51 of 59
Up 1–0, closes it71% 94 of 133
Navedla2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 02)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 134 of 322
Down 0–1, comes back26% 42 of 162
Down 0–2, comes back12% 9 of 77
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeWawrosz5wins
AwayNavedla5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWawrosz83.3%5 of 6
AwayNavedla100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wawrosz6Navedla4n = 10Wawrosz took 6 of 10
S2Wawrosz2Navedla8n = 10Navedla took 8 of 10
S3Wawrosz3Navedla7n = 10Navedla took 7 of 10
S4Wawrosz4Navedla2n = 6Wawrosz took 4 of 6
S5Wawrosz2Navedla1n = 3Wawrosz took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricWawroszNavedlaW − NBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match34.136.0−1.9per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWawroszNavedlaBasisWin rate · lifetime239 / 473 vs 382 / 81150.5%47.1%239 / 473 vs 382 / 811Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.038.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
WawroszWawrosz 1.40/Navedla 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.5%
Wawrosz · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Navedla won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 2 · 12:30P. Wawrosz227780M. Navedla331111113
LSep 25 · 08:30P. Wawrosz219840M. Navedla331111113
WSep 23 · 12:59P. Wawrosz4011135113M. Navedla323111171
LSep 23 · 10:00P. Wawrosz174760M. Navedla331111113
WSep 19 · 20:30P. Wawrosz47118116113M. Navedla4581171182
WSep 16 · 20:00P. Wawrosz45119113113M. Navedla3661171112
WSep 13 · 17:02P. Wawrosz3811115113M. Navedla31741191
LSep 13 · 14:00P. Wawrosz49111151482M. Navedla514131112113
WSep 8 · 06:30P. Wawrosz44111111113M. Navedla33813481
LSep 7 · 10:30P. Wawrosz188550M. Navedla331111113
P. Wawrosz10
WOct 2 · 17:30M. Grundel2.059121141P. Wawrosz1.6811148113WOct 2 · 16:00M. Cabis1.731011611122P. Wawrosz2.00128116143WOct 2 · 15:00L. Prikasky1.8311881172P. Wawrosz1.83911118113LOct 2 · 14:30P. Wawrosz1.6711671172M. Grundel2.10611114113WOct 2 · 13:29O. Paril1.831111971P. Wawrosz1.8381311113LOct 2 · 12:30M. Navedla2.001111113P. Wawrosz1.737780WOct 2 · 11:30P. Wawrosz1.911114113O. Paril1.8061250WOct 2 · 10:30R. Polasek1.73781141P. Wawrosz2.0011113113LOct 1 · 12:58P. Wawrosz1.67115561T. Zika2.1091111113WOct 1 · 12:30T. Zika1.8038110P. Wawrosz1.911111133
M. Navedla10
LOct 2 · 12:59M. Navedla1.837680R. Polasek1.831111113WOct 2 · 12:30M. Navedla2.001111113P. Wawrosz1.737780LOct 2 · 11:00M. Navedla2.00136111182R. Polasek1.73151185113LOct 2 · 10:00O. Paril1.531111113M. Navedla2.386990WSep 30 · 17:30T. Dousek1.63116114102M. Navedla2.13611711123LSep 30 · 16:30J. Pilch1.671111811113M. Navedla2.1091311992WSep 30 · 15:30M. Navedla2.38128115123T. Dousek1.531011511102WSep 30 · 14:30T. Zika1.61151011782M. Navedla2.201312711113WSep 26 · 13:09M. Navedla1.50111111113L. Prikasky2.40791311LSep 26 · 12:30D. Tomica1.617111111143M. Navedla2.20116135122
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