TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Pavel Wawrosz vs Matej Grundel 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
116611711114711
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:19 and never touched: 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timePavel Wawrosz to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPavel Wawrosz above · Matej Grundel below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 85 set 5, 7-11 · our read held Pavel Wawrosz at 55.8%
85 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Wawrosz 3–0 Matej Grundel Matej Grundel has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:1955.8%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 4.2pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Wawrosz
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-0 in 3
Wawrosz
Wrong
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wawrosz 1794 vs Grundel 1736
Wawrosz
Wrong
both rated, 57 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wawrosz 60% vs Grundel 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wawrosz 50% vs Grundel 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Wawrosz +1 · Grundel +3
Grundel
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Wawrosz) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Grundel form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWawrosz 1.666 / Grundel 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Wawrosz)-4.2pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13227358
Wawrosz1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite51% won 141 of 276
Up 2–0, closes it86% 50 of 58
Up 1–0, closes it71% 93 of 131
Grundel2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 8 days ago (Sep 24) · back after a break
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog39% won 25 of 65
Down 0–1, comes back30% 9 of 30
Down 0–2, comes back13% 2 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeWawrosz3wins
AwayGrundel0wins
3 of 3 to a deciderWawrosz leads 3–0, and 3 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wawrosz1Grundel2n = 3Grundel took 2 of 3
S2Wawrosz3Grundel0n = 3Wawrosz took 3 of 3
S3Wawrosz1Grundel2n = 3Grundel took 2 of 3
S4Wawrosz1Grundel2n = 3Grundel took 2 of 3
S5Wawrosz3Grundel0n = 3Wawrosz took 3 of 3
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home3100%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricWawroszGrundelW − GBasisWins30+3in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match50.044.0+6.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWawroszGrundelBasisWin rate · lifetime236 / 469 vs 172 / 33050.3%52.1%236 / 469 vs 172 / 330Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.038.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
WawroszWawrosz 1.67/Grundel 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.8%
Wawrosz · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Grundel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WAug 26 · 14:00P. Wawrosz50911118113M. Grundel4511981162
WMay 29 · 16:59P. Wawrosz48111169113M. Grundel4579111172
WMay 29 · 14:00P. Wawrosz529111011113M. Grundel4211412692
P. Wawrosz10
WOct 2 · 15:00L. Prikasky1.8311881172P. Wawrosz1.83911118113WOct 2 · 13:29O. Paril1.831111971P. Wawrosz1.8381311113LOct 2 · 12:30M. Navedla2.001111113P. Wawrosz1.737780WOct 2 · 11:30P. Wawrosz1.911114113O. Paril1.8061250WOct 2 · 10:30R. Polasek1.73781141P. Wawrosz2.0011113113LOct 1 · 12:58P. Wawrosz1.67115561T. Zika2.1091111113WOct 1 · 12:30T. Zika1.8038110P. Wawrosz1.911111133LOct 1 · 11:30P. Wawrosz2.7581171272J. Szotkowski1.401131110113LOct 1 · 10:30O. Paril1.8012117113P. Wawrosz1.911091191WSep 27 · 16:58J. Pilch1.736780P. Wawrosz2.001111113
M. Grundel10
WSep 24 · 17:04M. Grundel1.571091311113M. Cabis2.25121111372WSep 24 · 16:30M. Cabis1.83812617132M. Grundel1.8311101115153WSep 24 · 15:30M. Grundel1.67137911133D. Tomica2.101111115112LSep 24 · 14:30J. Pilch1.7311311113M. Grundel2.00411591LSep 21 · 17:03M. Grundel1.573890D. Ondryas2.251111113LSep 21 · 16:30M. Grundel1.53111011992D. Ondryas2.38812611113LSep 21 · 15:00M. Grundel2.00691181T. Zika1.7311119113WSep 21 · 14:00J. Pilch1.73117791M. Grundel2.0081111113LSep 20 · 17:00J. Pilch1.911111113M. Grundel1.804990WSep 20 · 16:30M. Navedla2.0011981382M. Grundel1.739111111113
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