TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Pavel Wawrosz vs Ondrej Paril 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1161412115––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:28 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOndrej Paril to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPavel Wawrosz above · Ondrej Paril below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 59 set 3, 11-5 · our read held Ondrej Paril at 54.0%
59 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Wawrosz 24–24 Ondrej Paril Dead even across their 48 meetings.
Last 10 · 3–7Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:2854.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Paril
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
24-24 in 48
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wawrosz 1778 vs Paril 1879
Paril
Wrong
both rated, 101 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wawrosz 40% vs Paril 80%
Paril
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wawrosz 30% vs Paril 60%
Paril
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Wawrosz +1 · Paril +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Paril) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Paril form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWawrosz 1.909 / Paril 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Paril)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13227360
Wawrosz1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog49% won 50 of 102
Down 0–1, comes back33% 15 of 46
Down 0–2, comes back18% 4 of 22
Paril1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite57% won 164 of 287
Up 2–0, closes it93% 78 of 84
Up 1–0, closes it77% 122 of 159
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeWawrosz3wins
AwayParil7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderParil leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWawrosz40%2 of 5
AwayParil80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wawrosz5Paril5n = 10split evenly
S2Wawrosz5Paril5n = 10split evenly
S3Wawrosz5Paril5n = 10split evenly
S4Wawrosz4Paril6n = 10Paril took 6 of 10
S5Wawrosz1Paril4n = 5Paril took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricWawroszParilW − PBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.341.7−3.4per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWawroszParilBasisWin rate · lifetime234 / 466 vs 509 / 97450.2%52.3%234 / 466 vs 509 / 974Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.037.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ParilWawrosz 1.91/Paril 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Paril · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Wawrosz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 1 · 10:30P. Wawrosz391091191O. Paril4112117113
LSep 27 · 15:30P. Wawrosz3861111642O. Paril47118611113
WSep 11 · 13:30P. Wawrosz4211119113O. Paril32881151
LSep 11 · 10:00P. Wawrosz4311128572O. Paril474101111113
WSep 4 · 08:30P. Wawrosz44471111113O. Paril3911118362
LAug 26 · 18:30P. Wawrosz4141181532O. Paril521161113113
LAug 23 · 14:00P. Wawrosz310121181O. Paril4311147113
WAug 12 · 18:30P. Wawrosz4011117113O. Paril35691191
LAug 12 · 14:00P. Wawrosz25116171O. Paril4181111113
LAug 9 · 10:00P. Wawrosz4011611662O. Paril40211511113
P. Wawrosz10
LOct 2 · 12:30M. Navedla2.001111113P. Wawrosz1.737780WOct 2 · 10:30R. Polasek1.73781141P. Wawrosz2.0011113113LOct 1 · 12:58P. Wawrosz1.67115561T. Zika2.1091111113WOct 1 · 12:30T. Zika1.8038110P. Wawrosz1.911111133LOct 1 · 11:30P. Wawrosz2.7581171272J. Szotkowski1.401131110113LOct 1 · 10:30O. Paril1.8012117113P. Wawrosz1.911091191WSep 27 · 16:58J. Pilch1.736780P. Wawrosz2.001111113LSep 27 · 16:30J. Pilch1.73111112123P. Wawrosz2.007514101LSep 27 · 15:30P. Wawrosz1.9161111642O. Paril1.80118611113LSep 27 · 14:30M. Biolek2.201111113P. Wawrosz1.617450
O. Paril10
WOct 2 · 12:00O. Paril1.7311116113R. Polasek2.00831141WOct 2 · 10:00O. Paril1.531111113M. Navedla2.386990WOct 1 · 13:30J. Szotkowski1.736670O. Paril2.001111113LOct 1 · 12:00J. Szotkowski1.731111113O. Paril2.003760WOct 1 · 11:00T. Zika1.9113915992O. Paril1.8011111311113WOct 1 · 10:30O. Paril1.8012117113P. Wawrosz1.911091191WSep 29 · 16:58M. Biolek1.6711711111O. Paril2.1071113133LSep 29 · 16:30T. Zika1.8312115113O. Paril1.831091141LSep 29 · 15:30O. Paril4.0091090R. Niezgoda1.221112113WSep 27 · 15:30P. Wawrosz1.9161111642O. Paril1.80118611113
Upcoming Matches
P. Wawrosz
O. Paril
Nothing scheduled
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